Today · 2026-07-25

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 4 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#4 Hunter Goodman vs Robert Gasser FIP 5.18 HR/FB 23.7% #6 Byron Buxton vs Mason Barnett FIP 5.96 HR/FB 22.2% #7 Jake Bauers vs Ryan Feltner FIP 5.76 HR/FB 24.1% #11 Curtis Mead vs Mitch Bratt FIP 7.62 HR/FB 22.2%

📦 STACK Ryan Weathers FIP 3.97 HR/FB 17.6% → #1 Kyle Schwarber, #14 Bryce Harper

📦 STACK Mitch Bratt FIP 7.62 HR/FB 16.7% → #2 James Wood, #5 Cj Abrams, #11 Curtis Mead

📦 STACK Brandon Young FIP 3.9 HR/FB 14.3% → #8 Matt Olson, #10 Drake Baldwin

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-07-24. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

93.2% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	James Wood (L) ³	77	-6.1	●	Mitch Bratt (LHP) AZ @ WSH · Nationals Park	4:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	28	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%14.2% Avg EV95.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	13d Last HR · 2026-07-12 OffWill Warren Exit Velo110.0 mph Angle26.0° Distance434 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○○○	3.5×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.22 FIP4.45 IP886.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-1 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp84°F Wind6 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-1 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR Note84°F, wind 6 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
2	Kyle Schwarber (L) ³	74	-10.6	●	Ryan Weathers (LHP) NYY @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	33	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%13.6% Avg EV93.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffSean Manaea Exit Velo106.0 mph Angle41.0° Distance399 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○○	1.7×	1	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.5% HR/91.03 FIP3.80 IP893.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+5 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind7 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 32 HR Note80°F, wind 7 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
3	Ben Rice (L)	77	-3.5	●	PHI Bullpen Proxy NYY @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	30	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%15.4% Avg EV92.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-22 OffCarmen Mlodzinski Exit Velo102.1 mph Angle29.0° Distance394 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○○●●○	0.5×	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.7% HR/91.26 FIP3.85 IP889.0 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+8 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind7 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+8 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 29 HR Note80°F, wind 7 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
4	Hunter Goodman (R) ⁵	69	-11.4	●	Robert Gasser (LHP) COL @ MIL · American Family Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	31	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV91.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-21 OffClayton Beeter Exit Velo95.4 mph Angle32.0° Distance399 ft StadiumCoors Field	●○●○○	0.7×	·	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.00 FIP3.58 IP880.5 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+6 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp79°F Wind7 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+6 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note79°F, wind 7 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
5	Cj Abrams (L) ³	68	-1.8	●	Mitch Bratt (LHP) AZ @ WSH · Nationals Park	4:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	24	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-21 OffMichael Lorenzen Exit Velo102.7 mph Angle35.0° Distance434 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○○●●	0.0×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.22 FIP4.45 IP886.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-4 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp84°F Wind6 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-4 · Neutral Spray Sourceblend · 1 HR Note84°F, wind 6 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
6	Byron Buxton (R) ³	65	-13.6	●	Mason Barnett (RHP) ATH @ MIN · Target Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	25	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls9 BBE Barrel%13.0% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	33d Last HR · 2026-06-22 OffWill Klein Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle35.0° Distance394 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○○○	6.0×	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.61 FIP5.09 IP914.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-25 Weather · Target Field hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp96°F Wind6 mph NNE Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-25 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR Note96°F, wind 6 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
7	Matt Olson (L) ⁴	65	-14.5	●	Brandon Young (RHP) ATL @ BAL · Camden Yards	7:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	27	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%9.3% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-24 OffAndrew Kittredge Exit Velo104.1 mph Angle27.0° Distance416 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○○●	0.0×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.07 FIP4.14 IP889.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+9 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78°F Wind7 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+9 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note78°F, wind 7 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
8	Curtis Mead (R) ²	65	-3.7	●	Mitch Bratt (LHP) AZ @ WSH · Nationals Park	4:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV88.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	14d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffCam Schlittler Exit Velo100.5 mph Angle33.0° Distance388 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○○○	1.5×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.22 FIP4.45 IP886.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+17 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp84°F Wind6 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+17 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note84°F, wind 6 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
9	Jake Bauers (L) ⁴	64	-6.2	●	Ryan Feltner (RHP) COL @ MIL · American Family Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls13 BBE Barrel%12.0% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	14d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffBraxton Ashcraft Exit Velo111.8 mph Angle22.0° Distance375 ft StadiumPNC Park	○○○○○	1.8×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.3% HR/91.47 FIP4.91 IP888.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-6 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp79°F Wind7 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-6 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note79°F, wind 7 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
10	Junior Caminero (R) ³	64	-13.9	●	Tanner Bibee (RHP) CLE @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	29	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV93.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffEduardo Rivera Exit Velo111.6 mph Angle26.0° Distance423 ft StadiumFenway Park	○○○○○	3.5×	1	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.15 FIP3.97 IP912.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 29 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
11	Drake Baldwin (L) ³	64	-9.6	●	Brandon Young (RHP) ATL @ BAL · Camden Yards	7:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-24 OffRico Garcia Exit Velo105.4 mph Angle24.0° Distance389 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○●●	0.0×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.07 FIP4.14 IP889.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+15 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78°F Wind7 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+15 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note78°F, wind 7 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
12	Ty France (R) ³	62	+0.6	●	Eury Pérez (RHP) SD @ MIA · loanDepot Park	4:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	16	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-23 OffTyler Kinley Exit Velo108.2 mph Angle22.0° Distance395 ft StadiumTruist Park	●○○●○	0.5×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.05 FIP4.09 IP915.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-24 Weather · loanDepot Park hot air · steady wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp91°F Wind12 mph SSE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-24 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note91°F, wind 12 mph SSE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
13	Bryce Harper (L) ³	62	-4.6	●	Ryan Weathers (LHP) NYY @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffLandon Knack Exit Velo104.0 mph Angle25.0° Distance407 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○●○○○	0.6×	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.5% HR/91.03 FIP3.80 IP893.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+18 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind7 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+18 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note80°F, wind 7 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
14	Shea Langeliers (R)	65	-7.0	●	MIN Bullpen Proxy ATH @ MIN · Target Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	23	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%15.2% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-21 OffRyan Thompson Exit Velo110.7 mph Angle25.0° Distance444 ft StadiumChase Field	○○●○○	0.5×	·	MIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.0% HR/91.19 FIP4.39 IP920.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-25 Weather · Target Field hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp96°F Wind6 mph NNE Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-25 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note96°F, wind 6 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
15	Coby Mayo (R) ³	61	·	●	Bryce Elder (RHP) ATL @ BAL · Camden Yards	7:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	13	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls10 BBE Barrel%8.4% Avg EV92.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-19 OffBryan King Exit Velo104.0 mph Angle32.0° Distance384 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○●○○○	1.0×	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.20 FIP4.21 IP883.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+29 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78°F Wind7 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 11 HR Note78°F, wind 7 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
16	Pete Alonso (R) ³	61	-10.5	●	Bryce Elder (RHP) ATL @ BAL · Camden Yards	7:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	21	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%8.8% Avg EV93.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	14d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffNoah Cameron Exit Velo103.9 mph Angle25.0° Distance420 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○○○	2.0×	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.20 FIP4.21 IP883.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+15 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78°F Wind7 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+15 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note78°F, wind 7 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
17	Corbin Carroll (L) ³	61	-3.9	●	Foster Griffin (LHP) AZ @ WSH · Nationals Park	4:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	15	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-22 OffGage Jump Exit Velo100.0 mph Angle35.0° Distance375 ft StadiumChase Field	○○●○○	0.4×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.43 FIP4.76 IP888.7 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-4 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp84°F Wind6 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-4 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note84°F, wind 6 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
18	Kody Clemens (L) ³	60	·	●	Mason Barnett (RHP) ATH @ MIN · Target Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffCaleb Thielbar Exit Velo102.7 mph Angle37.0° Distance391 ft StadiumWrigley Field	○○○○○	1.2×	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.61 FIP5.09 IP914.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-5 Weather · Target Field hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp96°F Wind6 mph NNE Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note96°F, wind 6 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
19	Paul Goldschmidt (R)	63	-3.4	●	PHI Bullpen Proxy NYY @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	16	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls13 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV86.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-24 OffJesús Luzardo Exit Velo100.9 mph Angle26.0° Distance371 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.7% HR/91.26 FIP3.85 IP889.0 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+28 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind7 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note80°F, wind 7 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
20	Yordan Alvarez (L) ⁴	57	-16.8	●	Sean Burke (RHP) HOU @ CWS · Rate Field	7:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	34	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.9% Avg EV94.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-22 OffSandy Alcantara Exit Velo104.9 mph Angle25.0° Distance394 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○●○●○	0.5×	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.07 FIP4.19 IP873.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR NoteUnknown stadium
21	Munetaka Murakami (L) ⁴	57	-9.8	●	Hunter Brown (RHP) HOU @ CWS · Rate Field	7:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV93.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	59d Last HR · 2026-05-27 OffConnor Prielipp Exit Velo108.3 mph Angle24.0° Distance432 ft StadiumRate Field	○○○○○	4.0×	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.9% HR/91.40 FIP4.87 IP905.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR NoteUnknown stadium
22	Manny Machado (R)	56	-6.3	●	Eury Pérez (RHP) SD @ MIA · loanDepot Park	4:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-21 OffJR Ritchie Exit Velo105.0 mph Angle24.0° Distance418 ft StadiumTruist Park	●●○○○	0.8×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.05 FIP4.09 IP915.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-25 Weather · loanDepot Park hot air · steady wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp91°F Wind12 mph SSE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-25 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note91°F, wind 12 mph SSE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
23	Colson Montgomery (L) ³	56	-10.1	●	Hunter Brown (RHP) HOU @ CWS · Rate Field	7:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	24	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls11 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV89.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-19 OffTrey Yesavage Exit Velo106.3 mph Angle28.0° Distance388 ft StadiumRogers Centre	●○○○○	1.3×	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.9% HR/91.40 FIP4.87 IP905.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR NoteUnknown stadium
24	Max Muncy (L) ³	56	-6.3	●	Nolan McLean (RHP) LAD @ NYM · Citi Field	7:15p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	5	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-22 OffAaron Nola Exit Velo100.3 mph Angle25.0° Distance415 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○●●	0.0×	·	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.12 FIP4.10 IP941.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+22 Weather · Citi Field warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73°F Wind8 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR Note73°F, wind 8 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
25	Ketel Marte (S) ³	56	-11.9	●	Foster Griffin (LHP) AZ @ WSH · Nationals Park	4:05p	🟠 C	SHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffJeffrey Springs Exit Velo108.5 mph Angle32.0° Distance402 ft StadiumChase Field	○●○○○	0.6×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.43 FIP4.76 IP888.7 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+2 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp84°F Wind6 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note84°F, wind 6 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
26	Trent Grisham (L)	59	-6.7	●	PHI Bullpen Proxy NYY @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	11	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-19 OffYoshinobu Yamamoto Exit Velo108.4 mph Angle26.0° Distance402 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○○○○○	0.6×	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.7% HR/91.26 FIP3.85 IP889.0 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+5 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind7 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 11 HR Note80°F, wind 7 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
27	Brandon Marsh (L) ²	55	+1.0	●	Ryan Weathers (LHP) NYY @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	16	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV89.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffEmmet Sheehan Exit Velo100.7 mph Angle25.0° Distance396 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○●○○	0.4×	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.5% HR/91.03 FIP3.80 IP893.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+13 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind7 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+13 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note80°F, wind 7 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
28	Jackson Chourio (R) ⁴	55	-9.8	●	Ryan Feltner (RHP) COL @ MIL · American Family Field	7:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	13	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%11.9% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	21d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffPaul Sewald Exit Velo105.7 mph Angle32.0° Distance410 ft StadiumChase Field	○○○○○	7.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.3% HR/91.47 FIP4.91 IP888.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-3 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp79°F Wind7 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-3 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note79°F, wind 7 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
29	Casey Schmitt (R) ³	55	-3.9	●	Ryan Johnson (RHP) LAA @ SF · Oracle Park	4:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-24 OffGrayson Rodriguez Exit Velo105.9 mph Angle27.0° Distance412 ft StadiumOracle Park	○○○●●	0.0×	·	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.10 FIP4.36 IP900.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+81 Weather · Oracle Park warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind13 mph WSW Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+81 · Deep green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note77°F, wind 13 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)
30	Willson Contreras (R) ⁵	54	-5.8	●	Dylan Cease (RHP) TOR @ BOS · Fenway Park	4:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%9.2% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-19 OffShane McClanahan Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle29.0° Distance414 ft StadiumFenway Park	○○○○○	1.0×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.06 FIP3.84 IP835.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-4 Weather · Fenway Park warm air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78°F Wind9 mph E Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-4 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note78°F, wind 9 mph E (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

15.1%

▲ +0.5 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 14.8% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-07-24

23 HRs

30%

7 caught / 23 HRs

in top 50

#11 Matt Olson

18.4%

🔵

#12 Drake Baldwin

31.5%

🔵

#29 Paul Goldschmidt

23.5%

🟠

#32 Francisco Alvarez

23.8%

🟠

#37 Brice Turang

14.3%

🟠

#43 Heriberto Hernández

13.3%

🟠

#44 Rafael Devers

22.9%

🟠

Missed

Casey Schmitt Joe Mack Kazuma Okamoto Wyatt Langford Dylan Crews +11 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Drake Baldwin ×3 Esmerlyn Valdez ×3 Cj Abrams ×2 Ben Rice ×2 Dillon Dingler ×2

❄️ Cold

Shohei Ohtani 0 of 7d Jordan Walker 0 of 7d Junior Caminero 0 of 7d James Wood 0 of 6d Kazuma Okamoto 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.5%

B 19.9%

C+ 16.9%

C 13.5%

D 8.9%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-07-25

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.