TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.24×

LAA @ SF

Oracle Park · 4:05p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 14 mph out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

1:05p

+4 ↑

2:05p

+4 ↑

3:05p

+4 ↑

4:05p

+4 ↑

5:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +4 FIT

Best of game Casey Schmitt conv 28 · vs Johnson ⟷ Denzer Guzman conv 25 · vs Ray → edge: Casey Schmitt

ATTACK Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 90

2.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Casey Schmitt — C ●●●●○

2 Willy Adames — C ●●●●○

3 Rafael Devers — C ●●●●○

FADE Robbie Ray LHP · SF

leak 67

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Denzer Guzman — D ●●●●○

2 Jo Adell — D ●●●○○

3 Vaughn Grissom — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Casey Schmitt: 12.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Casey Schmitt ✶ vs Johnson — 0.211 · 89.8 · 10.1% 33.3% 22.8% F B O C 56

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Johnson — 0.206 · 88.1 · 8.7% 33.3% 22.7% F B O C 53

· SF Rafael Devers vs Johnson Edge — 0.226 · 92.3 · 9.6% 22.2% 26.1% F B O C 57

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Johnson Edge — 0.204 · 92.6 · 10.3% 22.2% 22.6% F B O C 55

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Johnson — 0.187 · 92.5 · 11.2% 11.1% 12.0% F B O C 50

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Ray Edge — 0.223 · 90.6 · 13.1% 0.0% 13.4% F B O C 53

· LAA Zach Neto vs Ray Edge — 0.208 · 89.5 · 10.8% 0.0% 11.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· LAA Denzer Guzman vs Ray Edge — 0.134 · 87.5 · 7.2% 33.3% 15.9% F B O D 40

· LAA Jo Adell COOL vs Ray Edge — 0.156 · 89.6 · 8.8% 22.2% 16.8% F B O D 44

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Ray Edge — 0.135 · 89.1 · 8.1% 12.5% 5.6% F B O D 38

· LAA Jose Siri COOL vs Ray Edge — 0.204 · 87.0 · 10.4% 0.0% 16.5% F B O D 42

· LAA Jorge Soler vs Ray Edge — 0.170 · 88.3 · 10.1% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 43

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Johnson Edge — 0.125 · 85.6 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 32

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Johnson Edge — 0.125 · 87.0 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Ray — 0.114 · 87.1 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 30

· SF Luis Arraez COOL vs Johnson Edge — 0.126 · 86.9 · 2.0% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 29

· SF Daniel Susac COOL vs Johnson — 0.072 · 86.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 33

· LAA Logan O'Hoppe COOL vs Ray Edge — 0.089 · 86.9 · 9.6% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.8% ← leak BRK 36.6% OFF 16.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Mike Trout R Edge

17.8% 27.8% 14.3% 19.1% C 53 —

Zach Neto R Edge

16.1% 9.0% 8.8% 12.9% C 50 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jo Adell R Edge

8.4% 8.9% 5.4% 8.2% D 44 —

112

Jorge Soler R Edge

13.6% 10.5% 0.0% 11.3% D 43 —

128

Jose Siri R Edge

11.9% 5.6% 33.3% 12.1% D 42 —

148

Denzer Guzman R Edge

6.2% 3.4% 11.1% 5.8% D 40 —

167

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

8.8% 7.8% 0.0% 7.2% D 38 —

197

Logan O'Hoppe R Edge

10.9% 8.8% 12.5% 10.3% D 34 —

226

Nolan Schanuel L

2.6% 1.5% 0.0% 1.9% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.8% usage) carries Ray's damage — FB is the leak. 8 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.9% ← leak OFF 26.5% BRK 15.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Rafael Devers L Edge

13.3% 9.6% 8.3% 11.3% C 57 —

Casey Schmitt R

9.5% 17.4% 17.8% 12.5% C 56 —

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

13.8% 20.0% 6.2% 13.2% C 55 —

Willy Adames R

8.7% 13.0% 10.1% 9.5% C 53 —

Heliot Ramos R

13.7% 17.4% 17.7% 15.6% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

202

Daniel Susac R

4.0% 0.0% 7.1% 4.5% D 33 —

209

Drew Gilbert L Edge

1.9% 0.0% 2.5% 1.7% D 32 —

210

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.7% 0.0% 1.9% 2.2% D 32 —

233

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.5% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.9% usage) carries Johnson's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Adell Guzman Devers Schmitt Eldridge Adames

Legend

attack side — vs Johnson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Casey Schmitt — · 56

Willy Adames — · 53

Rafael Devers — · 57

Bryce Eldridge — · 55

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 14 mph out 72°F open

↑

9 mph · out

64°F

1:05p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

64°F

2:05p

↑

9 mph · out

64°F

3:05p

↑

9 mph · out

64°F

4:05p

↑

9 mph · out

64°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.24× 72°F, wind 14 mph W (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Robbie Ray · LHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 53 C — COOL 45 0.223 90.6 13.1% 23.5%vs LHP 409 17.1% 0.0% 13.4% 22

2 Zach Neto 50 C — · 58 0.208 89.5 10.8% 19.2%vs LHP 402 17.5% 0.0% 11.9% 25

3 Jo Adell 44 D — COOL 97 0.156 89.6 8.8% 33.3%vs LHP 408 12.4% 22.2% 16.8% 25

4 Jorge Soler 43 D — · 112 0.170 88.3 10.1% 13.3%vs LHP 398 12.7% 0.0% 9.0% 12

5 Jose Siri 42 D — COOL 128 0.204 87.0 10.4% 30.8%vs LHP 415 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 5

6 Denzer Guzman 40 D — WARM 148 0.134 87.5 7.2% 40.0%vs LHP 396 18.2% 33.3% 15.9% 12

7 Vaughn Grissom 38 D — COOL 167 0.135 89.1 8.1% 0.0%vs LHP 389 10.5% 12.5% 5.6% 25

8 Logan O'Hoppe 34 D — COOL 197 0.089 86.9 9.6% 0.0%vs LHP 408 3.6% 0.0% 5.5% 14

9 Nolan Schanuel 30 D — COOL 226 0.114 87.1 4.1% 20.0%vs LHP 372 7.1% 0.0% 6.9% 30

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 2.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.32 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 57 C — WARM 20 0.226 92.3 9.6% 26.6%vs RHP 399 18.0% 22.2% 26.1% 20

2 Casey Schmitt ✶ 56 C — · 27 0.211 89.8 10.1% 20.8%vs RHP 396 18.4% 33.3% 22.8% 27

3 Bryce Eldridge 55 C — WARM 31 0.204 92.6 10.3% 22.9%vs RHP 399 21.6% 22.2% 22.6% 20

4 Willy Adames 53 C — COOL 47 0.206 88.1 8.7% 22.4%vs RHP 388 16.2% 33.3% 22.7% 21

5 Heliot Ramos 50 C — · 56 0.187 92.5 11.2% 20.6%vs RHP 407 12.1% 11.1% 12.0% 25

6 Daniel Susac 33 D — COOL 202 0.072 86.4 6.0% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 8

7 Drew Gilbert 32 D — COOL 209 0.125 85.6 3.7% 13.8%vs RHP 398 3.6% 0.0% 7.7% 24

8 Jung Hoo Lee 32 D — COOL 210 0.125 87.0 4.2% 8.0%vs RHP 378 4.3% 0.0% 7.0% 29

9 Luis Arraez 29 D — COOL 233 0.126 86.9 2.0% 3.4%vs RHP 367 3.0% 0.0% 6.5% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.