TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.92×

KC @ DET

Comerica Park · 1:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 6 mph cross 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

1:10p

-2 ↑

2:10p

-2 ↑

3:10p

-2 ↑

4:10p

-2 ↑

5:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -2 FIT

Best of game Riley Greene conv 18 · vs Wacha ⟷ Salvador Perez conv 22 · vs Mize → edge: Riley Greene

ATTACK Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 45

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Riley Greene — D ●●●○○

2 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●●●○○

3 Kerry Carpenter — D ●○○○○

FADE Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 3

0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.85 · stingy — thin edge

1 Salvador Perez — D ●●●○○

2 Lane Thomas — D ●●●○○

3 Jac Caglianone — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Riley Greene: 15.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 17 long shots

· KC Salvador Perez vs Mize — 0.149 · 89.0 · 8.2% 30.0% 13.9% F B O D 38

· DET Riley Greene ✶ vs Wacha Edge — 0.184 · 91.6 · 9.9% 20.0% 16.1% F B O D 45

· KC Lane Thomas vs Mize — 0.167 · 89.5 · 6.7% 20.0% 14.0% F B O D 37

· DET Hao-Yu Lee HOT vs Wacha — 0.142 · 88.6 · 7.5% 25.0% 8.2% F B O D 38

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.205 · 93.0 · 10.0% 14.3% 9.9% F B O D 43

· KC Carter Jensen vs Mize Edge — 0.192 · 90.7 · 8.0% 10.0% 8.1% F B O D 39

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.127 · 88.4 · 6.3% 11.1% 4.8% F B O D 29

· DET Kerry Carpenter COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.212 · 89.9 · 7.9% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 42

· DET Jake Rogers COOL vs Wacha — 0.143 · 87.6 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 35

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Wacha — 0.107 · 85.2 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 31

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Mize — 0.145 · 87.5 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 29

· DET Colt Keith vs Wacha Edge — 0.142 · 89.0 · 7.2% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 33

· DET Matt Vierling vs Wacha — 0.121 · 87.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 30

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.139 · 88.2 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 30

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.155 · 90.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 30

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Wacha Edge — 0.100 · 85.0 · 4.0% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 23

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Mize Edge — 0.116 · 88.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 5.2% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.9% BRK 30.4% OFF 23.8% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

111

Jac Caglianone L Edge

14.9% 16.9% 12.2% 15.0% D 43 —

158

Carter Jensen L Edge

11.4% 9.0% 7.3% 9.8% D 39 —

165

Salvador Perez R

13.7% 6.0% 9.8% 10.1% D 38 —

178

Lane Thomas R

7.9% 2.9% 5.6% 6.7% D 37 —

228

Michael Massey L Edge

8.1% 4.3% 2.5% 6.2% D 30 —

232

Nick Loftin R

6.5% 2.3% 0.0% 4.6% D 29 —

234

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.3% 11.1% 0.0% 6.0% D 29 —

240

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

7.7% 3.5% 9.4% 6.9% D 28 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Mize's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.9% ← leak OFF 23.1% BRK 19.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

Riley Greene L Edge

17.2% 8.2% 15.0% 15.0% D 45 —

129

Kerry Carpenter L Edge

9.7% 7.7% 11.1% 9.7% D 42 —

166

Hao-Yu Lee R

14.5% 5.9% 0.0% 8.6% D 38 —

189

Jake Rogers R

9.3% 0.0% 6.2% 8.1% D 35 —

201

Colt Keith L Edge

7.7% 4.0% 13.9% 7.9% D 33 —

221

Gleyber Torres R

8.7% 0.0% 6.1% 7.5% D 31 —

222

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

9.0% 2.0% 7.7% 7.6% D 30 —

227

Matt Vierling R

8.0% 0.0% 2.8% 5.2% D 30 —

250

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.3% 0.0% 2.0% 2.5% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.9% usage) carries Wacha's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Perez Thomas Greene Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Wacha fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.84× Wind 6 mph cross 83°F open

-2

↑

6 mph · slight_out

78°F

1:10p · peak

-2

↑

6 mph · slight_out

78°F

2:10p

-2

↑

6 mph · slight_out

78°F

3:10p

-2

↑

6 mph · slight_out

78°F

4:10p

-2

↑

6 mph · slight_out

78°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.92× 83°F, wind 6 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Casey Mize · RHP 0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.85 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 43 D — COOL 111 0.205 93.0 10.0% 28.9%vs RHP 416 13.3% 14.3% 9.9% 23

2 Carter Jensen 39 D — WARM 158 0.192 90.7 8.0% 17.4%vs RHP 394 15.0% 10.0% 8.1% 25

3 Salvador Perez 38 D — WARM 165 0.149 89.0 8.2% 19.6%vs RHP 404 15.7% 30.0% 13.9% 22

4 Lane Thomas 37 D — WARM 178 0.167 89.5 6.7% 20.7%vs RHP 416 15.2% 20.0% 14.0% 27

5 Michael Massey 30 D — COOL 228 0.155 90.2 6.4% 9.4%vs RHP 398 6.0% 0.0% 5.9% 27

6 Nick Loftin 29 D — COOL 232 0.145 87.5 5.5% 10.7%vs RHP 397 8.9% 0.0% 7.1% 26

7 Isaac Collins 29 D — COOL 234 0.127 88.4 6.3% 7.7%vs RHP 394 6.9% 11.1% 4.8% 22

8 Vinnie Pasquantino 28 D — WARM 240 0.116 88.8 6.8% 12.0%vs RHP 395 8.1% 0.0% 5.2% 24

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Riley Greene ✶ 45 D — WARM 89 0.184 91.6 9.9% 19.1%vs RHP 399 12.7% 20.0% 16.1% 24

2 Kerry Carpenter 42 D — COOL 129 0.212 89.9 7.9% 23.6%vs RHP 380 15.0% 0.0% 11.6% 22

3 Hao-Yu Lee 38 D — HOT 166 0.142 88.6 7.5% 21.4%vs RHP 381 25.0% 25.0% 8.2% 22

4 Jake Rogers 35 D — COOL 189 0.143 87.6 7.2% 10.5%vs RHP 376 10.5% 0.0% 8.9% 4

5 Colt Keith 33 D — · 201 0.142 89.0 7.2% 13.8%vs RHP 389 7.0% 0.0% 6.9% 18

6 Gleyber Torres 31 D — COOL 221 0.107 85.2 7.0% 10.3%vs RHP 388 6.8% 0.0% 8.1% 7

7 Kevin Mcgonigle 30 D — COOL 222 0.139 88.2 7.0% 8.2%vs RHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 28

8 Matt Vierling 30 D — · 227 0.121 87.7 5.8% 8.1%vs RHP 377 7.1% 0.0% 6.3% 19

9 Zach Mckinstry 23 D — WARM 250 0.100 85.0 4.0% 7.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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