TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.17×

AZ @ WSH

Nationals Park · 4:05p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 6 mph slight_out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

4:05p

+4 ↑

5:05p

+4 ↑

6:05p

+4 ↑

7:05p

+4 ↑

8:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +4 FIT

Best of game Dylan Crews conv 29 · vs Bratt ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 29 · vs Griffin → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Mitch Bratt LHP · AZ

leak 80

2.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dylan Crews — C ●●●●○

2 James Wood — B ●●●●○

3 Curtis Mead — C+ ●●●●○

FADE Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 76

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado — C ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll — C+ ●●●○○

3 Ryan Waldschmidt — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 21.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Griffin Edge — 0.184 · 85.1 · 8.3% 33.3% 25.0% F B O C 53

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Bratt Edge — 0.140 · 90.6 · 9.3% 40.0% 18.0% F B O C 55

· WSH James Wood ✶ COOL vs Bratt — 0.279 · 95.1 · 14.2% 22.2% 35.2% F B O B 76

· WSH Curtis Mead vs Bratt Edge — 0.249 · 88.1 · 10.0% 14.3% 32.3% F B O C+ 64

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Griffin — 0.241 · 91.5 · 10.7% 20.0% 24.6% F B O C+ 61

· WSH Andres Chaparro vs Bratt Edge — 0.227 · 91.0 · 11.3% 0.0% 29.8% F B O C 53

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Griffin Edge — 0.203 · 91.0 · 9.8% 11.1% 17.8% F B O C 55

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Bratt — 0.258 · 89.8 · 9.9% 0.0% 27.1% F B O C 58

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Bratt — 0.160 · 88.2 · 8.6% 12.5% 9.2% F B O C 50

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Bratt — 0.188 · 89.0 · 7.0% 0.0% 14.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt vs Griffin Edge — 0.112 · 87.5 · 8.7% 20.0% 11.2% F B O D 43

· WSH Jacob Young vs Bratt Edge — 0.151 · 88.7 · 8.0% 16.7% 13.4% F B O D 49

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Griffin Edge — 0.174 · 88.9 · 7.9% 16.7% 12.9% F B O D 46

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Griffin Edge — 0.141 · 89.4 · 8.4% 10.0% 10.8% F B O D 45

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Griffin Edge — 0.117 · 87.0 · 5.2% 10.0% 8.1% F B O D 37

· AZ James Mccann vs Griffin Edge — 0.162 · 89.5 · 9.2% 0.0% 15.0% F B O D 43

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Griffin Edge — 0.137 · 87.5 · 5.5% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 39

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Bratt Edge — 0.046 · 84.7 · 1.9% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.5% ← leak BRK 25.0% OFF 16.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Corbin Carroll L

10.4% 14.9% 12.3% 12.2% C+ 61 —

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.0% 8.1% 4.0% 10.3% C 55 —

Nolan Arenado R Edge

10.9% 2.4% 3.7% 7.4% C 53 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Tim Tawa R Edge

5.9% 13.0% 0.0% 6.7% D 46 —

Gabriel Moreno R Edge

7.9% 6.0% 9.7% 7.6% D 45 —

James Mccann R Edge

13.3% 6.2% 0.0% 9.1% D 43 —

110

Ryan Waldschmidt R Edge

9.8% 7.7% 0.0% 8.2% D 43 —

157

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.5% 1.8% 1.7% 3.3% D 39 —

179

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.9% 0.0% 2.6% 2.9% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.5% usage) carries Griffin's damage — FB is the leak. 8 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 39.9% ← leak BRK 38.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

James Wood L

22.1% 26.0% 21.9% B 76 —

Neutral · 6

Curtis Mead R Edge

13.2% 10.5% 11.0% C+ 64 —

Cj Abrams L

12.2% 8.2% 10.8% C 58 —

Dylan Crews R Edge

6.7% 23.1% 9.5% C 55 —

Andres Chaparro R Edge

12.5% 33.3% 14.0% C 53 —

Keibert Ruiz L

7.9% 1.9% 5.3% C 50 —

Daylen Lile L

8.5% 10.9% 8.2% C 50 —

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Jacob Young R Edge

8.9% 4.5% 7.0% D 49 —

239

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.4% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (39.9% usage) carries Bratt's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Marte Arenado Tawa Waldschmidt Wood Mead Abrams Crews Chaparro Young

Legend

attack side — vs Bratt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Nolan Arenado — · 53

Dylan Crews — · 55

James Wood — · 76

Corbin Carroll — · 61

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 4:05p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 6 mph slight_out 81°F open

↑

2 mph · slight_out

81°F

4:05p · peak

↑

2 mph · slight_out

81°F

5:05p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

81°F

6:05p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

81°F

7:05p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

81°F

8:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 81°F, wind 6 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 61 C+ — WARM 15 0.241 91.5 10.7% 17.4%vs LHP 401 14.3% 20.0% 24.6% 27

2 Ketel Marte 55 C — COOL 33 0.203 91.0 9.8% 33.3%vs LHP 412 15.3% 11.1% 17.8% 28

3 Nolan Arenado 53 C — WARM 46 0.184 85.1 8.3% 25.0%vs LHP 391 13.7% 33.3% 25.0% 27

4 Tim Tawa 46 D — WARM 78 0.174 88.9 7.9% 0.0%vs LHP 397 7.7% 16.7% 12.9% 30

5 Gabriel Moreno 45 D — · 90 0.141 89.4 8.4% 20.0%vs LHP 399 8.5% 10.0% 10.8% 32

6 James Mccann 43 D — WARM 98 0.162 89.5 9.2% 0.0%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 8

7 Ryan Waldschmidt 43 D — WARM 110 0.112 87.5 8.7% 0.0%vs LHP 426 4.5% 20.0% 11.2% 13

8 Ildemaro Vargas 39 D — WARM 157 0.137 87.5 5.5% 29.4%vs LHP 399 5.3% 0.0% 11.6% 25

9 Geraldo Perdomo 37 D — COOL 179 0.117 87.0 5.2% 5.6%vs LHP 386 6.7% 10.0% 8.1% 28

vs Mitch Bratt · LHP 2.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 76 B — COOL 1 0.279 95.1 14.2% 38.1%vs LHP 412 28.2% 22.2% 35.2% 23

2 Curtis Mead 64 C+ — · 10 0.249 88.1 10.0% 21.9%vs LHP 400 20.0% 14.3% 32.3% 20

3 Cj Abrams 58 C — WARM 18 0.258 89.8 9.9% 13.6%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 27.1% 28

4 Dylan Crews 55 C — WARM 32 0.140 90.6 9.3% 20.0%vs LHP 405 20.0% 40.0% 18.0% 19

5 Andres Chaparro 53 C — WARM 36 0.227 91.0 11.3% 21.4%vs LHP 424 0.0% 0.0% 29.8% 15

6 Keibert Ruiz 50 C — COOL 55 0.188 89.0 7.0% 25.0%vs LHP 377 11.6% 0.0% 14.2% 16

7 Daylen Lile 50 C — HOT 57 0.160 88.2 8.6% 5.6%vs LHP 403 8.8% 12.5% 9.2% 23

8 Jacob Young 49 D — WARM 66 0.151 88.7 8.0% 9.1%vs LHP 396 8.7% 16.7% 13.4% 15

9 Nasim Nunez 28 D — COOL 239 0.046 84.7 1.9% 7.7%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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