TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.41×

ATL @ BAL

Camden Yards · 7:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.28× Wind 6 mph slight_out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

7:05p

+11 ↑

8:05p

+11 ↑

9:05p

+11 ↑

10:05p

+11 ↑

11:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +11 FIT

Best of game Taylor Ward conv 18 · vs Elder ⟷ Drake Baldwin conv 36 · vs Young → edge: Drake Baldwin

ATTACK Bryce Elder RHP · ATL

leak 97

1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · leakiest side of this game

1 Taylor Ward — D ●●●○○

2 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●○○

3 Leody Taveras — D ●●○○○

FADE Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 66

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Drake Baldwin +950 C+ ●●●●●

2 Matt Olson +950 C+ ●●●●○

3 Dominic Smith — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Drake Baldwin: 15.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Drake Baldwin ✶ vs Young Edge +950 0.205 · 91.5 · 9.8% 40.0% 31.2% F B O C+ 64

· ATL Matt Olson COOL vs Young Edge +950 0.259 · 92.6 · 9.3% 20.0% 36.0% F B O C+ 67

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Young +850 0.138 · 90.8 · 8.3% 20.0% 16.8% F B O C 50

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Elder — 0.213 · 93.9 · 8.8% 10.0% 23.4% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Elder Edge — 0.179 · 89.4 · 6.6% 10.0% 14.3% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Young Edge — 0.131 · 87.8 · 6.0% 25.0% 16.8% F B O D 46

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Young Edge — 0.174 · 86.7 · 5.2% 20.0% 17.5% F B O D 49

· BAL Taylor Ward vs Elder — 0.108 · 89.4 · 5.9% 20.0% 15.8% F B O D 45

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Elder Edge — 0.120 · 87.0 · 5.3% 14.3% 12.3% F B O D 43

· BAL Tyler O'Neill COOL vs Elder +900 0.155 · 89.9 · 7.4% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 49

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Young Edge +950 0.130 · 90.3 · 6.3% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 44

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Elder Edge — 0.148 · 87.6 · 7.6% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 47

· ATL Jim Jarvis vs Young Edge — 0.164 · 88.8 · 6.5% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 45

· BAL Chadwick Tromp COOL vs Elder — 0.030 · 84.3 · — 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 32

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Young — 0.149 · 86.5 · 5.4% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 40

· BAL Dylan Beavers vs Elder Edge — 0.118 · 88.4 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.7% ← leak BRK 25.6% OFF 19.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Matt Olson L Edge

15.3% 10.3% 11.4% 13.4% C+ 67 +950

Drake Baldwin L Edge

15.8% 20.0% 2.9% 15.0% C+ 64 +950

Austin Riley R

13.1% 11.1% 3.1% 11.2% C 50 +850

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ozzie Albies S Edge

7.0% 1.1% 3.2% 4.4% D 49 —

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.5% 6.4% 2.7% 5.7% D 46 —

Jim Jarvis L Edge

10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% D 45 —

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

6.9% 4.5% 7.4% 6.4% D 44 +950

136

Mauricio Dubon R

3.5% 6.6% 5.5% 4.7% D 40 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.7% usage) carries Young's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.7% ← leak BRK 26.6% OFF 8.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

14.5% 7.3% 15.2% 12.5% C+ 61 —

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.5% 5.4% 7.6% 6.9% C 53 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Tyler O'Neill R

10.7% 8.7% 0.0% 8.7% D 49 +900

Jackson Holliday L Edge

10.9% 3.7% 13.3% 9.3% D 47 —

Taylor Ward R

7.8% 1.3% 2.9% 5.5% D 45 —

105

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.4% 9.3% 0.0% 4.5% D 43 —

109

Dylan Beavers L Edge

7.6% 3.6% 0.0% 5.5% D 43 —

203

Chadwick Tromp R

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.7% usage) carries Elder's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Baldwin Riley Albies Smith Alonso Ward Taveras

Legend

attack side — vs Elder fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Drake Baldwin +950 · 64

Matt Olson +950 · 67

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.28× Wind 6 mph slight_out 80°F open

+11

↑

8 mph · slight_out

81°F

7:05p · peak

+11

↑

8 mph · slight_out

81°F

8:05p

+11

↑

8 mph · slight_out

81°F

9:05p

+11

↑

8 mph · slight_out

81°F

10:05p

+11

↑

8 mph · slight_out

81°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.41× 80°F, wind 6 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Young · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 67 C+ +950 COOL 6 0.259 92.6 9.3% 32.2%vs RHP 409 21.4% 20.0% 36.0% 26

2 Drake Baldwin ✶ 64 C+ +950 · 8 0.205 91.5 9.8% 27.5%vs RHP 403 20.7% 40.0% 31.2% 33

3 Austin Riley 50 C +850 HOT 54 0.138 90.8 8.3% 17.5%vs RHP 405 8.8% 20.0% 16.8% 26

4 Ozzie Albies 49 D — COOL 61 0.174 86.7 5.2% 11.8%vs RHP 385 13.6% 20.0% 17.5% 30

5 Dominic Smith 46 D — COOL 77 0.131 87.8 6.0% 13.0%vs RHP 390 7.9% 25.0% 16.8% 10

6 Jim Jarvis 45 D — · 85 0.164 88.8 6.5% 12.5%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 24

7 Mike Yastrzemski 44 D +950 COOL 93 0.130 90.3 6.3% 16.0%vs RHP 387 7.8% 0.0% 13.0% 5

8 Mauricio Dubon 40 D — · 136 0.149 86.5 5.4% 13.6%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 35

vs Bryce Elder · RHP 1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 61 C+ — WARM 13 0.213 93.9 8.8% 28.8%vs RHP 401 18.4% 10.0% 23.4% 24

2 Gunnar Henderson 53 C — COOL 44 0.179 89.4 6.6% 16.7%vs RHP 389 15.8% 10.0% 14.3% 26

3 Tyler O'Neill 49 D +900 COOL 63 0.155 89.9 7.4% 10.0%vs RHP 404 11.1% 0.0% 13.5% 13

4 Jackson Holliday 47 D — COOL 70 0.148 87.6 7.6% 20.0%vs RHP 384 4.2% 0.0% 12.3% 15

5 Taylor Ward 45 D — · 80 0.108 89.4 5.9% 5.5%vs RHP 388 6.7% 20.0% 15.8% 27

6 Leody Taveras 43 D — COOL 105 0.120 87.0 5.3% 11.4%vs RHP 420 2.9% 14.3% 12.3% 16

7 Dylan Beavers 43 D — WARM 109 0.118 88.4 5.9% 9.5%vs RHP 406 2.3% 0.0% 9.5% 17

8 Chadwick Tromp 32 D — COOL 203 0.030 84.3 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 6

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.