TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ MIN

Target Field is live · 1.18×

ATH @ MIN

Target Field · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 5 mph out 93°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:10p

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7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -3 FIT

Best of game Trevor Larnach conv 25 · vs Basso ⟷ Tyler Soderstrom conv 25 · vs Paredes → edge: Tyler Soderstrom

ATTACK Brady Basso LHP · ATH

leak 88

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Trevor Larnach — D ●●●●○

2 Kody Clemens — C ●●●○○

3 Brooks Lee — D ●●○○○

FADE Mike Paredes RHP · MIN

leak 67

1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Soderstrom — C ●●●●○

2 Jacob Wilson — D ●●●●○

3 Nick Kurtz +900 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Tyler Soderstrom: 10.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom ✶ vs Paredes Edge — 0.225 · 90.1 · 8.4% 25.0% 24.1% F B O C 54

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Basso — 0.240 · 92.7 · 11.0% 11.1% 23.6% F B O C 55

· ATH Nick Kurtz vs Paredes +900 0.229 · 93.6 · 11.3% 0.0% 20.6% F B O C 57

· MIN Byron Buxton vs Basso Edge +750 0.294 · 90.9 · 13.3% 0.0% 17.2% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Basso — 0.164 · 87.1 · 8.7% 33.3% 16.5% F B O D 43

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Paredes — 0.131 · 83.8 · 4.3% 33.3% 12.7% F B O D 38

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Basso Edge — 0.179 · 87.7 · 6.2% 11.1% 10.8% F B O D 40

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Basso Edge — 0.169 · 89.1 · 10.9% 11.1% 10.2% F B O D 45

· ATH Donovan Walton COOL vs Paredes Edge — 0.196 · 87.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 42

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Paredes Edge — 0.200 · 87.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 44

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Basso Edge — 0.171 · 90.0 · 9.8% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 42

· MIN Ryan Kreidler vs Basso Edge — 0.154 · 87.7 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Paredes Edge — 0.083 · 86.4 · 2.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 26

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Paredes Edge — 0.100 · 89.0 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 34

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Basso Edge — 0.126 · 89.6 · 8.4% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 36

· MIN Alan Roden vs Basso +950 0.000 · 90.0 · 8.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 32

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Paredes — 0.084 · 90.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.4% ← leak OFF 25.6% BRK 22.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Nick Kurtz

17.1% 15.8% 21.8% 18.1% C 57 +900

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

9.6% 0.0% 17.2% 10.0% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jonah Heim S Edge

8.1% 8.3% 2.6% 6.7% D 44 —

121

Donovan Walton L Edge

6.5% 0.0% 6.2% 4.9% D 42 —

162

Jacob Wilson R

4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% D 38 —

188

Henry Bolte R

6.4% 5.6% 7.9% 6.7% D 35 —

194

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.1% 2.1% 8.6% 5.6% D 34 —

243

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.7% 1.8% 2.0% 1.2% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.4% usage) carries Paredes's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 77.0% BRK 15.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Byron Buxton R Edge

19.7% 16.2% 18.1% C+ 60 +750

Kody Clemens L

9.2% 21.1% 12.4% C 55 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R Edge

14.2% 9.4% 12.2% D 45 —

103

Trevor Larnach L

8.6% 8.3% 7.8% D 43 —

125

Josh Bell S Edge

9.5% 14.8% 9.8% D 42 —

144

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.5% 0.0% 3.9% D 40 —

176

Ryan Kreidler R Edge

8.7% 2.7% 6.8% D 37 —

184

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.9% 13.8% 7.2% D 36 —

207

Alan Roden L

14.3% 0.0% 8.0% D 32 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Basso's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soderstrom Wilson Clemens Larnach

Legend

attack side — vs Basso fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Tyler Soderstrom — · 54

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 5 mph out 93°F open

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

84°F

6:10p · peak

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

84°F

7:10p

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

84°F

8:10p

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

84°F

9:10p

-3

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9 mph · cross

84°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 93°F, wind 5 mph N (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Mike Paredes · RHP 1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nick Kurtz 57 C +900 · 19 0.229 93.6 11.3% 40.0%vs RHP 412 20.7% 0.0% 20.6% 0

2 Tyler Soderstrom ✶ 54 C — · 34 0.225 90.1 8.4% 21.6%vs RHP 403 15.9% 25.0% 24.1% 24

3 Jonah Heim 44 D — · 95 0.200 87.1 6.9% 8.7%vs RHP 411 13.8% 0.0% 10.6% 24

4 Donovan Walton 42 D — COOL 121 0.196 87.8 5.9% 12.5%vs RHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 11.1% 8

5 Jacob Wilson 38 D — WARM 162 0.131 83.8 4.3% 16.7%vs RHP 386 8.1% 33.3% 12.7% 36

6 Henry Bolte 35 D — · 188 0.084 90.0 6.9% 0.0%vs RHP 422 9.1% 0.0% 5.7% 18

7 Lawrence Butler 34 D — · 194 0.100 89.0 6.5% 19.4%vs RHP 402 3.6% 0.0% 8.1% 19

8 Jeff Mcneil 26 D — WARM 243 0.083 86.4 2.9% 9.1%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 16

vs Brady Basso · LHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton 60 C+ +750 WARM 16 0.294 90.9 13.3% 28.6%vs LHP 402 29.5% 0.0% 17.2% 12

2 Kody Clemens 55 C — · 29 0.240 92.7 11.0% 26.3%vs LHP 389 18.3% 11.1% 23.6% 23

3 Royce Lewis 45 D — · 88 0.169 89.1 10.9% 15.4%vs LHP 396 16.1% 11.1% 10.2% 25

4 Trevor Larnach 43 D — WARM 103 0.164 87.1 8.7% 28.6%vs LHP 400 8.5% 33.3% 16.5% 22

5 Josh Bell 42 D — COOL 125 0.171 90.0 9.8% 10.7%vs LHP 404 10.1% 0.0% 9.6% 28

6 Brooks Lee 40 D — COOL 144 0.179 87.7 6.2% 15.4%vs LHP 370 14.9% 11.1% 10.8% 28

7 Ryan Kreidler 37 D — WARM 176 0.154 87.7 8.1% 12.5%vs LHP 411 5.9% 0.0% 8.9% 21

8 Victor Caratini 36 D — COOL 184 0.126 89.6 8.4% 15.4%vs LHP 404 7.4% 0.0% 7.9% 18

9 Alan Roden 32 D +950 · 207 0.000 90.0 8.8% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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