TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.90×

CHC @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 4 mph out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:40p

-3 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

-2 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

the 6:40p window peaks -2

Best of game Nick Gonzales conv 21 · vs Imanaga ⟷ Alex Bregman conv 23 · vs Skenes → edge: Seiya Suzuki

ATTACK Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 93

1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nick Gonzales +700 D ●●●○○

2 Marcell Ozuna +400 D ●●○○○

3 Brandon Lowe +350 D ●○○○○

FADE Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 48

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Alex Bregman +700 D ●●●●○

2 Seiya Suzuki +500 D ●●●○○

3 Michael Busch +500 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Seiya Suzuki: 10.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Skenes +700 0.119 · 88.1 · 5.2% 33.3% 12.5% F B O D 30

· CHC Seiya Suzuki ✶ vs Skenes +500 0.208 · 89.2 · 7.8% 22.2% 21.6% F B O D 43

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Imanaga Edge +700 0.102 · 85.8 · 5.2% 33.3% 8.1% F B O D 32

· CHC Michael Busch vs Skenes Edge +500 0.161 · 88.3 · 8.0% 22.2% 13.4% F B O D 37

· PIT Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Imanaga Edge +400 0.128 · 89.5 · 9.0% 12.5% 13.0% F B O D 38

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Skenes Edge +475 0.210 · 89.7 · 8.8% 11.1% 12.8% F B O D 43

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong COOL vs Skenes Edge +370 0.235 · 90.1 · 8.2% 11.1% 12.6% F B O D 45

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Skenes +850 0.120 · 88.0 · 6.4% 12.5% 7.4% F B O D 29

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Imanaga +350 0.229 · 91.0 · 10.8% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 49

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Imanaga Edge +475 0.188 · 90.9 · 10.1% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 44

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Skenes +625 0.197 · 89.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 37

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Imanaga +525 0.185 · 89.8 · 8.7% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 42

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Skenes — 0.092 · 86.1 · 2.3% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 18

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Imanaga Edge — 0.071 · 84.7 · 3.8% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.1% ← leak OFF 25.8% BRK 21.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

9.1% 11.3% 12.9% 10.5% D 45 +370

Seiya Suzuki R

10.7% 10.5% 9.0% 10.1% D 43 +500

101

Ian Happ S Edge

14.4% 1.7% 19.2% 12.2% D 43 +475

153

Michael Busch L Edge

12.5% 3.1% 5.1% 9.7% D 37 +500

155

Dansby Swanson R

7.1% 13.3% 5.3% 7.3% D 37 +625

203

Alex Bregman R

2.9% 6.9% 7.1% 4.3% D 30 +700

212

Carson Kelly R

7.8% 5.9% 3.5% 6.3% D 29 +850

234

Nico Hoerner R

1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% D 18 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.1% usage) carries Skenes's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.3% ← leak OFF 33.5% BRK 19.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Lowe L

17.2% 10.0% 6.8% 12.4% D 49 +350

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

10.7% 5.1% 14.3% 10.4% D 44 +475

118

Ryan O'Hearn L

8.4% 4.8% 7.0% 7.7% D 42 +525

149

Marcell Ozuna R Edge

8.7% 0.0% 11.5% 8.6% D 38 +400

186

Nick Gonzales R Edge

2.2% 0.0% 5.8% 3.1% D 32 +700

230

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.3% usage) carries Imanaga's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Suzuki Busch Bregman Gonzales

Legend

attack side — vs Imanaga fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Seiya Suzuki +500 · 43

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 4 mph out 80°F open

-2

↑

4 mph · slight_out

78°F

6:40p · peak

-3

↑

3 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:40p

-2

↑

3 mph · out

75°F

8:40p

-2

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

9:40p

-2

↑

4 mph · out

71°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.90× 80°F, wind 4 mph W (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 45 D +370 COOL 88 0.235 90.1 8.2% 23.2%vs RHP 393 19.4% 11.1% 12.6% 17

2 Seiya Suzuki ✶ 43 D +500 WARM 97 0.208 89.2 7.8% 24.5%vs RHP 409 15.9% 22.2% 21.6% 21

3 Ian Happ 43 D +475 COOL 101 0.210 89.7 8.8% 25.0%vs RHP 404 18.6% 11.1% 12.8% 18

4 Michael Busch 37 D +500 WARM 153 0.161 88.3 8.0% 16.4%vs RHP 403 13.5% 22.2% 13.4% 22

5 Dansby Swanson 37 D +625 COOL 155 0.197 89.8 6.8% 17.7%vs RHP 403 12.9% 0.0% 11.2% 23

6 Alex Bregman 30 D +700 · 203 0.119 88.1 5.2% 17.2%vs RHP 391 8.9% 33.3% 12.5% 25

7 Carson Kelly 29 D +850 COOL 212 0.120 88.0 6.4% 9.1%vs RHP 416 6.9% 12.5% 7.4% 18

8 Nico Hoerner 18 D — WARM 234 0.092 86.1 2.3% 3.6%vs RHP 383 3.9% 0.0% 6.0% 32

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 49 D +350 · 61 0.229 91.0 10.8% 16.7%vs LHP 392 15.2% 0.0% 13.1% 18

2 Bryan Reynolds 44 D +475 COOL 93 0.188 90.9 10.1% 26.1%vs LHP 409 13.0% 0.0% 11.5% 16

3 Ryan O'Hearn 42 D +525 · 118 0.185 89.8 8.7% 17.4%vs LHP 384 13.3% 0.0% 10.7% 18

4 Marcell Ozuna 38 D +400 COOL 149 0.128 89.5 9.0% 22.2%vs LHP 404 9.1% 12.5% 13.0% 12

5 Nick Gonzales 32 D +700 WARM 186 0.102 85.8 5.2% 4.8%vs LHP 396 8.2% 33.3% 8.1% 30

6 Jake Mangum 23 D — WARM 230 0.071 84.7 3.8% 0.0%vs LHP 408 3.3% 0.0% 5.4% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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