TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ MIL

Playable air · 1.10×

COL @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 6 mph slight_out 79°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:10p

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7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -3 FIT

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 31 · vs Gasser ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 23 · vs Feltner → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Robert Gasser LHP · MIL

leak 93

1.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman — B ●●●●●

2 Willi Castro — D ●●●○○

3 Kyle Karros — D ●●○○○

FADE Ryan Feltner RHP · COL

leak 93

1.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers +950 C+ ●●●●○

2 Brice Turang — C ●●●○○

3 Cooper Pratt — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 17.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Gasser Edge — 0.305 · 91.0 · 11.3% 25.0% 36.7% F B O B 70

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Feltner Edge +950 0.226 · 92.6 · 11.9% 22.2% 24.3% F B O C+ 63

· MIL Brice Turang vs Feltner Edge — 0.190 · 90.7 · 9.6% 22.2% 23.2% F B O C 56

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Feltner Edge +950 0.178 · 92.6 · 12.1% 0.0% 14.1% F B O C 53

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Feltner +700 0.197 · 92.3 · 11.7% 0.0% 13.7% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Gasser Edge — 0.132 · 87.9 · 7.3% 28.6% 14.1% F B O D 44

· COL Kyle Karros vs Gasser Edge — 0.166 · 89.7 · 7.9% 12.5% 9.7% F B O D 47

· MIL Cooper Pratt COOL vs Feltner — 0.086 · 88.3 · 6.5% 14.3% 7.9% F B O D 41

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Feltner Edge — 0.144 · 89.2 · 9.5% 11.1% 9.7% F B O D 47

· COL Cole Carrigg COOL vs Gasser Edge — 0.213 · 86.4 · 6.8% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 44

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Gasser — 0.206 · 85.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 43

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Feltner Edge — 0.093 · 86.8 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 38

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Gasser — 0.179 · 83.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 40

· MIL William Contreras vs Feltner +950 0.121 · 90.1 · 8.8% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 44

· COL Braxton Fulford vs Gasser Edge — 0.119 · 86.8 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 41

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Gasser Edge — 0.074 · 88.0 · 3.3% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 31

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Gasser Edge — 0.124 · 87.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 66.3% ← leak BRK 26.3% OFF 7.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R Edge

20.3% 16.0% 7.4% 17.3% B 70 —

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Kyle Karros R Edge

8.3% 5.0% 15.0% 8.0% D 47 —

Cole Carrigg S Edge

5.0% 5.3% 11.1% 6.2% D 44 —

Willi Castro S Edge

7.8% 6.7% 6.5% 7.2% D 44 —

100

Jake Mccarthy L

6.2% 1.6% 10.0% 5.5% D 43 —

133

Braxton Fulford R Edge

14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% D 41 —

137

Tj Rumfield L

6.3% 2.2% 6.2% 5.0% D 40 —

156

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

6.1% 7.7% 4.5% 6.6% D 39 —

214

Tyler Freeman R Edge

2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.3% usage) carries Gasser's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 43.8% ← leak FB 40.7% OFF 15.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Jake Bauers L Edge

12.1% 13.8% 13.8% 13.4% C+ 63 +950

Brice Turang L Edge

8.9% 11.0% 2.1% 8.8% C 56 —

Jackson Chourio R

16.1% 12.7% 3.7% 12.6% C 56 +700

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

12.1% 16.5% 5.0% 13.9% C 53 +950

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Christian Yelich L Edge

12.0% 6.8% 10.5% 8.6% D 47 —

William Contreras R

7.4% 8.3% 0.0% 7.3% D 44 +950

135

Cooper Pratt R

0.0% 7.3% 0.0% 4.1% D 41 —

164

David Hamilton L Edge

5.9% 3.6% 0.0% 3.8% D 38 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (43.8% usage) carries Feltner's damage — BRK is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Castro Bauers Turang

Legend

attack side — vs Gasser fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Hunter Goodman — · 70

Jake Bauers +950 · 63

Brice Turang — · 56

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.00× Wind 6 mph slight_out 79°F retractable

-3

↑

5 mph · in

85°F

6:10p · peak

-3

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5 mph · in

85°F

7:10p

-3

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5 mph · in

85°F

8:10p

-3

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5 mph · in

85°F

9:10p

-3

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5 mph · in

85°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 79°F, wind 6 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Robert Gasser · LHP 1.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 70 B — WARM 4 0.305 91.0 11.3% 40.0%vs LHP 411 25.3% 25.0% 36.7% 19

2 Kyle Karros 47 D — · 72 0.166 89.7 7.9% 5.3%vs LHP 417 11.1% 12.5% 9.7% 21

3 Cole Carrigg 44 D — COOL 91 0.213 86.4 6.8% 13.3%vs LHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 22

4 Willi Castro 44 D — WARM 92 0.132 87.9 7.3% 9.5%vs LHP 417 9.0% 28.6% 14.1% 23

5 Jake Mccarthy 43 D — · 100 0.206 85.3 6.4% 20.0%vs LHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 30

6 Braxton Fulford 41 D — WARM 133 0.119 86.8 8.1% 0.0%vs LHP 376 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 2

7 Tj Rumfield 40 D — · 137 0.179 83.9 6.2% 9.1%vs LHP 410 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 25

8 Ezequiel Tovar 39 D — COOL 156 0.124 87.3 6.9% 3.9%vs LHP 410 7.6% 0.0% 7.5% 16

9 Tyler Freeman 31 D — COOL 214 0.074 88.0 3.3% 11.8%vs LHP 369 2.1% 0.0% 8.6% 15

vs Ryan Feltner · RHP 1.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.07 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 63 C+ +950 WARM 11 0.226 92.6 11.9% 34.6%vs RHP 401 20.3% 22.2% 24.3% 16

2 Brice Turang 56 C — WARM 24 0.190 90.7 9.6% 25.9%vs RHP 408 12.1% 22.2% 23.2% 26

3 Jackson Chourio 56 C +700 COOL 26 0.197 92.3 11.7% 18.5%vs RHP 402 15.9% 0.0% 13.7% 23

4 Garrett Mitchell 53 C +950 COOL 42 0.178 92.6 12.1% 26.7%vs RHP 415 8.5% 0.0% 14.1% 26

5 Christian Yelich 47 D — WARM 71 0.144 89.2 9.5% 13.8%vs RHP 404 7.6% 11.1% 9.7% 28

6 William Contreras 44 D +950 · 96 0.121 90.1 8.8% 18.6%vs RHP 419 9.7% 0.0% 9.1% 24

7 Cooper Pratt 41 D — COOL 135 0.086 88.3 6.5% 7.7%vs RHP 393 8.3% 14.3% 7.9% 20

8 David Hamilton 38 D — COOL 164 0.093 86.8 6.3% 7.0%vs RHP 383 4.5% 0.0% 10.0% 2

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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