TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.14×

LAD @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 9 mph out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

7:15p

+3 ↑

8:15p

+3 ↑

9:15p

+3 ↑

10:15p

+3 ↑

11:15p

conditions hold steady across the window · +3 FIT

Best of game Francisco Alvarez conv 27 · vs Yamamoto ⟷ Max Muncy conv 32 · vs McLean → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 77

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Alvarez +950 D ●●●●○

2 Brett Baty — D ●●●○○

3 Francisco Lindor — D ●●●○○

FADE Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 62

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy +1000 C ●●●●●

2 Dalton Rushing — D ●●●○○

3 Mookie Betts — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 37.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ COOL vs McLean Edge +1000 0.249 · 90.1 · 9.6% 37.5% 26.9% F B O C 56

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs McLean Edge +750 0.241 · 93.5 · 10.5% 10.0% 15.2% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· NYM Francisco Alvarez HOT vs Yamamoto +950 0.180 · 90.2 · 10.6% 33.3% 20.8% F B O D 48

· LAD Dalton Rushing COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.227 · 89.2 · 8.8% 14.3% 28.1% F B O D 48

· NYM Brett Baty vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.108 · 89.5 · 7.8% 28.6% 12.6% F B O D 37

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.165 · 92.0 · 7.9% 22.2% 15.4% F B O D 42

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.130 · 86.3 · 7.2% 20.0% 13.5% F B O D 37

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs McLean — 0.189 · 90.5 · 7.4% 10.0% 20.0% F B O D 43

· LAD Tommy Edman vs McLean Edge — 0.175 · 89.6 · 7.4% 14.3% 9.2% F B O D 39

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs McLean Edge — 0.123 · 88.9 · 6.4% 11.1% 7.0% F B O D 34

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs McLean — 0.191 · 89.1 · 7.5% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 42

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.191 · 90.2 · 8.3% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 43

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs McLean — 0.137 · 89.7 · 7.9% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 34

· NYM Carson Benge vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.134 · 89.2 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 36

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.116 · 89.8 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 33

· NYM Jorge Polanco COOL vs Yamamoto Edge +1000 0.082 · 85.1 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.7% ← leak BRK 28.8% OFF 6.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Max Muncy L Edge

17.1% 14.3% 7.1% 14.0% C 56 +1000

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

21.1% 9.9% 15.2% 16.7% C 54 +750

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Dalton Rushing L Edge

12.9% 17.5% 3.1% 11.9% D 48 —

102

Mookie Betts R

10.3% 3.8% 6.7% 8.3% D 43 —

107

Freddie Freeman L Edge

10.6% 9.5% 10.4% 10.3% D 43 —

118

Andy Pages R

7.9% 9.0% 9.7% 8.4% D 42 —

155

Tommy Edman S Edge

5.0% 7.1% 15.8% 8.2% D 39 —

190

Teoscar Hernandez R

8.1% 13.9% 8.7% 9.4% D 34 —

195

Kyle Tucker L Edge

9.0% 3.6% 1.6% 6.2% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.7% usage) carries McLean's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.7% ← leak OFF 27.3% BRK 20.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R

16.0% 16.7% 16.7% 16.4% D 48 +950

117

Francisco Lindor S Edge

9.7% 9.1% 5.3% 9.0% D 42 —

169

Marcus Semien R

10.3% 9.1% 2.5% 7.6% D 37 —

170

Brett Baty L Edge

7.7% 4.8% 13.6% 8.3% D 37 —

185

Carson Benge L Edge

7.0% 6.7% 10.0% 7.7% D 36 —

199

Bo Bichette R

4.7% 0.0% 12.3% 6.6% D 33 —

224

Jorge Polanco S Edge

5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% D 30 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.7% usage) carries Yamamoto's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Rushing Betts Alvarez Lindor Semien Baty

Legend

attack side — vs Yamamoto fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Max Muncy +1000 · 56

Francisco Alvarez +950 · 48

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 9 mph out 77°F open

↑

5 mph · out

80°F

7:15p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

80°F

8:15p

↑

5 mph · out

80°F

9:15p

↑

5 mph · out

80°F

10:15p

↑

5 mph · out

80°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.14× 77°F, wind 9 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 56 C +1000 COOL 23 0.249 90.1 9.6% 25.6%vs RHP 410 19.1% 37.5% 26.9% 20

2 Shohei Ohtani 54 C +750 · 35 0.241 93.5 10.5% 22.8%vs RHP 405 19.2% 10.0% 15.2% 29

3 Dalton Rushing 48 D — COOL 67 0.227 89.2 8.8% 38.5%vs RHP 400 9.1% 14.3% 28.1% 9

4 Mookie Betts 43 D — COOL 102 0.189 90.5 7.4% 20.0%vs RHP 389 11.3% 10.0% 20.0% 26

5 Freddie Freeman 43 D — COOL 107 0.191 90.2 8.3% 16.7%vs RHP 398 13.0% 0.0% 11.2% 26

6 Andy Pages 42 D — COOL 118 0.191 89.1 7.5% 21.1%vs RHP 391 13.9% 0.0% 13.2% 23

7 Tommy Edman 39 D — WARM 155 0.175 89.6 7.4% 9.1%vs RHP 408 5.6% 14.3% 9.2% 24

8 Teoscar Hernandez 34 D — COOL 190 0.137 89.7 7.9% 19.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 18

9 Kyle Tucker 34 D — · 195 0.123 88.9 6.4% 9.7%vs RHP 398 6.2% 11.1% 7.0% 28

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Alvarez 48 D +950 HOT 68 0.180 90.2 10.6% 27.3%vs RHP 404 10.9% 33.3% 20.8% 11

2 Francisco Lindor 42 D — WARM 117 0.165 92.0 7.9% 15.6%vs RHP 399 9.8% 22.2% 15.4% 26

3 Marcus Semien 37 D — COOL 169 0.130 86.3 7.2% 17.3%vs RHP 390 10.8% 20.0% 13.5% 12

4 Brett Baty 37 D — · 170 0.108 89.5 7.8% 12.0%vs RHP 395 6.3% 28.6% 12.6% 16

5 Carson Benge 36 D — · 185 0.134 89.2 7.3% 13.3%vs RHP 399 9.1% 0.0% 7.8% 19

6 Bo Bichette 33 D — COOL 199 0.116 89.8 6.7% 9.8%vs RHP 385 9.1% 0.0% 7.2% 19

7 Jorge Polanco 30 D +1000 COOL 224 0.082 85.1 4.5% 9.1%vs RHP 346 3.1% 0.0% 7.2% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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