TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ STL

Busch Stadium is live · 1.11×

CIN @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:15p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind 6 mph slight_out 91°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:15p

+5 ↑

7:15p

+5 ↑

8:15p

+5 ↑

9:15p

+5 ↑

10:15p

conditions hold steady across the window · +5 FIT

Best of game Lars Nootbaar conv 12 · vs Greene ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 20 · vs Pallante → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Hunter Greene RHP · CIN

leak 99

1.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.98 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lars Nootbaar — D ●●○○○

2 Bryan Torres — D ●○○○○

3 Jordan Walker +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Andre Pallante RHP · STL

leak 85

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz — C ●●●○○

2 Sal Stewart — D ●●●○○

3 Tyler Stephenson — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.227 · 94.1 · 9.4% 22.2% 17.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 17 long shots

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Pallante — 0.222 · 90.4 · 9.3% 22.2% 16.3% F B O D 48

· CIN Tyler Stephenson HOT vs Pallante — 0.148 · 90.9 · 8.5% 14.3% 13.7% F B O D 38

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Pallante Edge — 0.244 · 89.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 25.6% F B O D 42

· STL Lars Nootbaar vs Greene Edge — 0.135 · 92.0 · 8.6% 16.7% 6.7% F B O D 35

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Pallante +900 0.194 · 88.5 · 8.1% 0.0% 19.2% F B O D 38

· STL Bryan Torres COOL vs Greene Edge — 0.229 · 87.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 18.4% F B O D 39

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Greene +850 0.228 · 93.7 · 10.6% 0.0% 18.0% F B O D 49

· CIN Noelvi Marte COOL vs Pallante — 0.175 · 87.5 · 6.1% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 36

· STL Alec Burleson vs Greene Edge +1000 0.185 · 91.7 · 9.5% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 42

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Greene Edge — 0.144 · 90.0 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 31

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Greene — 0.132 · 89.0 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 29

· STL Masyn Winn vs Greene — 0.083 · 88.0 · 5.1% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 25

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Greene Edge — 0.135 · 86.0 · 7.7% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

· STL Blaze Jordan vs Greene — 0.116 · 89.0 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 31

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.087 · 87.4 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 24

· CIN Ke'Bryan Hayes vs Pallante — 0.073 · 90.7 · 7.1% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 30

· CIN Edwin Arroyo HOT vs Pallante Edge — 0.044 · 87.6 · 2.6% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.5% ← leak BRK 47.8% OFF 2.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

18.9% 10.9% 3.8% 13.9% C 50 —

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Sal Stewart R

17.0% 9.8% 10.3% 13.9% D 48 —

113

Jj Bleday L Edge

11.7% 9.3% 6.0% 9.8% D 42 —

159

Eugenio Suarez R

12.2% 5.9% 7.7% 10.5% D 38 +900

161

Tyler Stephenson R

14.4% 7.7% 6.2% 11.7% D 38 —

180

Noelvi Marte R

1.7% 12.9% 8.3% 5.9% D 36 —

225

Ke'Bryan Hayes R

9.2% 6.7% 0.0% 8.0% D 30 —

246

Tj Friedl L Edge

3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.7% D 24 —

248

Edwin Arroyo S Edge

2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.5% usage) carries Pallante's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.5% ← leak BRK 33.3% OFF 9.8% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

Jordan Walker R

14.6% 12.8% 16.1% 14.1% D 49 +850

122

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.7% 10.6% 11.4% 11.3% D 42 +1000

150

Bryan Torres L Edge

11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% D 39 —

187

Lars Nootbaar L Edge

11.5% 13.6% 0.0% 9.5% D 35 —

198

Nathan Church L Edge

9.1% 6.2% 6.0% 7.4% D 33 —

211

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

10.5% 2.6% 2.2% 7.3% D 31 —

216

Blaze Jordan R

2.0% 8.3% 18.2% 6.0% D 31 —

229

Ivan Herrera R

5.0% 5.0% 7.3% 5.3% D 29 —

244

Masyn Winn R

3.9% 2.3% 3.6% 3.3% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.5% usage) carries Greene's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Stewart Stephenson

Legend

attack side — vs Greene fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:15p · roof open

Park 0.86× Wind 6 mph slight_out 91°F open

↑

7 mph · out

92°F

6:15p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

92°F

7:15p

↑

7 mph · out

92°F

8:15p

↑

7 mph · out

92°F

9:15p

↑

7 mph · out

92°F

10:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.11× 91°F, wind 6 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andre Pallante · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 50 C — COOL 53 0.227 94.1 9.4% 18.8%vs RHP 397 17.3% 22.2% 17.2% 31

2 Sal Stewart 48 D — COOL 69 0.222 90.4 9.3% 21.7%vs RHP 392 13.8% 22.2% 16.3% 31

3 Jj Bleday 42 D — WARM 113 0.244 89.0 8.0% 24.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 25.6% 23

4 Eugenio Suarez 38 D +900 HOT 159 0.194 88.5 8.1% 25.7%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 20

5 Tyler Stephenson 38 D — HOT 161 0.148 90.9 8.5% 19.5%vs RHP 395 7.6% 14.3% 13.7% 18

6 Noelvi Marte 36 D — COOL 180 0.175 87.5 6.1% 33.3%vs RHP 407 12.2% 0.0% 11.1% 11

7 Ke'Bryan Hayes 30 D — WARM 225 0.073 90.7 7.1% 4.0%vs RHP 365 6.1% 0.0% 5.7% 11

8 Tj Friedl 24 D — COOL 246 0.087 87.4 4.1% 8.6%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 11

9 Edwin Arroyo 23 D — HOT 248 0.044 87.6 2.6% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 22

vs Hunter Greene · RHP 1.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.98 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 49 D +850 COOL 60 0.228 93.7 10.6% 32.7%vs RHP 406 18.7% 0.0% 18.0% 30

2 Alec Burleson 42 D +1000 WARM 122 0.185 91.7 9.5% 21.0%vs RHP 407 15.3% 0.0% 10.7% 34

3 Bryan Torres 39 D — COOL 150 0.229 87.1 7.6% 30.8%vs RHP 370 10.5% 0.0% 18.4% 6

4 Lars Nootbaar 35 D — WARM 187 0.135 92.0 8.6% 9.5%vs RHP 438 2.8% 16.7% 6.7% 22

5 Nathan Church 33 D — COOL 198 0.135 86.0 7.7% 20.0%vs RHP 388 8.8% 0.0% 7.8% 23

6 Jj Wetherholt 31 D — · 211 0.144 90.0 7.6% 18.0%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 32

7 Blaze Jordan 31 D — · 216 0.116 89.0 7.4% 9.1%vs RHP 418 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 20

8 Ivan Herrera 29 D — COOL 229 0.132 89.0 6.5% 17.5%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 29

9 Masyn Winn 25 D — WARM 244 0.083 88.0 5.1% 11.1%vs RHP 390 4.1% 0.0% 8.1% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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