TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.94×

TOR @ BOS

Fenway Park · 4:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph cross 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

-8 ↑

4:10p

-8 ↑

5:10p

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6:10p

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7:10p

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8:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -8 FIT

Best of game Brandon Valenzuela conv 18 · vs Gray ⟷ Willson Contreras conv 25 · vs Cease → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Sonny Gray RHP · BOS

leak 86

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brandon Valenzuela — D ●●●○○

2 Kazuma Okamoto +390 C ●●○○○

3 George Springer +575 D ●●○○○

FADE Dylan Cease RHP · TOR

leak 5

0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras +280 C ●●●●○

2 Masataka Yoshida — D ●●●●○

3 Wilyer Abreu +390 D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 14.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ vs Cease +280 0.265 · 90.5 · 9.2% 25.0% 25.4% F B O C 55

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Gray +390 0.216 · 91.1 · 10.1% 10.0% 15.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· BOS Masataka Yoshida HOT vs Cease Edge — 0.126 · 89.0 · 4.0% 37.5% 12.8% F B O D 34

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Cease Edge +390 0.189 · 89.8 · 8.6% 27.3% 19.4% F B O D 46

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Cease +625 0.157 · 86.3 · 5.4% 27.3% 9.0% F B O D 36

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela vs Gray Edge — 0.174 · 88.4 · 7.6% 16.7% 19.0% F B O D 42

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Cease +750 0.193 · 88.7 · 7.3% 14.3% 9.4% F B O D 41

· TOR George Springer vs Gray +575 0.162 · 88.3 · 7.4% 12.5% 10.8% F B O D 40

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.106 · 86.6 · 2.8% 14.3% 7.5% F B O D 29

· BOS Anthony Seigler vs Cease Edge — 0.138 · 88.1 · 6.0% 12.5% 7.9% F B O D 34

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Cease +700 0.160 · 84.4 · 3.9% 9.1% 8.6% F B O D 32

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Gray +950 0.127 · 85.0 · 4.2% 10.0% 7.1% F B O D 31

· TOR Yohendrick Piñango HOT vs Gray Edge — 0.148 · 90.8 · 7.8% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 39

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Cease Edge +525 0.150 · 89.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 37

· TOR Daulton Varsho vs Gray Edge +850 0.139 · 86.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 35

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Gray Edge — 0.125 · 86.2 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 29

· BOS Connor Wong COOL vs Cease — 0.091 · 85.9 · 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.7% ← leak BRK 35.5% OFF 5.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

16.0% 9.1% 17.6% 14.2% C 51 +390

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

116

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

3.8% 19.0% 13.0% 8.2% D 42 —

143

George Springer R

8.5% 5.6% 8.7% 7.6% D 40 +575

154

Yohendrick Piñango L Edge

9.8% 8.7% 6.1% 8.5% D 39 —

186

Daulton Varsho L Edge

8.9% 3.0% 5.7% 6.8% D 35 +850

217

Ernie Clement R

2.5% 2.7% 2.4% 2.5% D 31 +950

230

Andres Gimenez L Edge

4.4% 2.7% 5.9% 4.1% D 29 —

231

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.2% 3.0% 1.1% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.7% usage) carries Gray's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.0% ← leak BRK 43.4% OFF 11.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R

12.0% 15.7% 22.6% 14.2% C 55 +280

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

13.0% 12.7% 12.1% 12.7% D 46 +390

132

Andruw Monasterio R

8.1% 8.9% 18.2% 9.2% D 41 +750

172

Jarren Duran L Edge

13.2% 7.7% 7.3% 10.5% D 37 +525

182

Ceddanne Rafaela R

4.0% 6.0% 7.5% 5.1% D 36 +625

191

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

3.6% 0.0% 2.9% 2.9% D 34 —

196

Anthony Seigler S Edge

7.8% 7.1% 0.0% 6.2% D 34 —

204

Caleb Durbin R

2.8% 1.6% 3.6% 2.6% D 32 +700

238

Connor Wong R

3.2% 8.0% 0.0% 4.3% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.0% usage) carries Cease's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Valenzuela Contreras Abreu Rafaela Yoshida

Legend

attack side — vs Gray fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Willson Contreras +280 · 55

Wilyer Abreu +390 · 46

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph cross 75°F open

-8

↑

9 mph · in

76°F

4:10p · peak

-8

↑

9 mph · in

76°F

5:10p

-8

↑

9 mph · in

76°F

6:10p

-8

↑

9 mph · in

76°F

7:10p

-8

↑

9 mph · in

76°F

8:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 75°F, wind 6 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sonny Gray · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 51 C +390 COOL 51 0.216 91.1 10.1% 29.3%vs RHP 397 20.2% 10.0% 15.4% 22

2 Brandon Valenzuela 42 D — WARM 116 0.174 88.4 7.6% 22.2%vs RHP 394 11.1% 16.7% 19.0% 9

3 George Springer 40 D +575 · 143 0.162 88.3 7.4% 22.5%vs RHP 391 10.5% 12.5% 10.8% 28

4 Yohendrick Piñango 39 D — HOT 154 0.148 90.8 7.8% 17.4%vs RHP 403 13.6% 0.0% 11.3% 4

5 Daulton Varsho 35 D +850 WARM 186 0.139 86.1 6.9% 11.1%vs RHP 386 6.8% 0.0% 7.8% 27

6 Ernie Clement 31 D +950 COOL 217 0.127 85.0 4.2% 7.1%vs RHP 375 8.2% 10.0% 7.1% 35

7 Andres Gimenez 29 D — WARM 230 0.125 86.2 5.3% 11.1%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 20

8 Nathan Lukes 29 D — COOL 231 0.106 86.6 2.8% 13.2%vs RHP 378 6.2% 14.3% 7.5% 24

vs Dylan Cease · RHP 0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 55 C +280 WARM 28 0.265 90.5 9.2% 35.7%vs RHP 406 21.3% 25.0% 25.4% 16

2 Wilyer Abreu 46 D +390 WARM 73 0.189 89.8 8.6% 13.1%vs RHP 405 14.1% 27.3% 19.4% 29

3 Andruw Monasterio 41 D +750 COOL 132 0.193 88.7 7.3% 4.0%vs RHP 383 18.5% 14.3% 9.4% 17

4 Jarren Duran 37 D +525 COOL 172 0.150 89.6 7.8% 29.3%vs RHP 398 12.6% 0.0% 11.1% 30

5 Ceddanne Rafaela 36 D +625 · 182 0.157 86.3 5.4% 13.5%vs RHP 373 11.2% 27.3% 9.0% 34

6 Masataka Yoshida 34 D — HOT 191 0.126 89.0 4.0% 10.0%vs RHP 367 11.6% 37.5% 12.8% 24

7 Anthony Seigler 34 D — · 196 0.138 88.1 6.0% 9.1%vs RHP 360 6.7% 12.5% 7.9% 30

8 Caleb Durbin 32 D +700 COOL 204 0.160 84.4 3.9% 21.9%vs RHP 373 9.5% 9.1% 8.6% 30

9 Connor Wong 28 D — COOL 238 0.091 85.9 5.0% 0.0%vs RHP 380 3.8% 0.0% 5.0% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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