TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ TB

Neutral air · 1.01×

CLE @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 19 · vs Bibee ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 22 · vs Martinez → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 69

1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●○○

2 Cedric Mullins — D ●●○○○

3 Jonathan Aranda — D ●●○○○

FADE Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 46

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.63 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●○○

2 Patrick Bailey — D ●●●○○

3 Brayan Rocchio — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Bibee — 0.263 · 93.1 · 10.7% 18.2% 19.8% F B O C+ 64

Below the fade line · 16 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Martinez Edge — 0.167 · 88.1 · 5.9% 27.3% 16.9% F B O D 45

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Martinez Edge — 0.111 · 90.1 · 7.3% 28.6% 12.3% F B O D 41

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Martinez Edge — 0.131 · 86.5 · 4.7% 18.2% 8.3% F B O D 37

· CLE Kyle Manzardo vs Martinez Edge — 0.151 · 89.3 · 9.0% 14.3% 10.9% F B O D 45

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.143 · 88.0 · 6.0% 12.5% 10.8% F B O D 43

· CLE Petey Halpin COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.134 · 86.4 · 7.3% 11.1% 10.6% F B O D 40

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Bibee Edge — 0.159 · 91.0 · 9.3% 10.0% 11.6% F B O D 49

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.203 · 87.9 · 7.4% 0.0% 17.8% F B O D 43

· CLE Gabriel Arias COOL vs Martinez — 0.164 · 91.7 · 9.2% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 45

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Bibee — 0.160 · 90.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 42

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.174 · 89.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 39

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.099 · 85.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 36

· TB Hunter Feduccia COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.107 · 90.7 · 8.7% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 41

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Bibee — 0.078 · 87.3 · 3.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 32

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.061 · 83.7 · — 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 21

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.059 · 83.4 · 1.5% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.2% ← leak OFF 27.3% BRK 9.6% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.8% 3.8% 4.0% 4.5% D 45 —

Gabriel Arias R

4.0% 0.0% 23.1% 11.9% D 45 —

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

12.4% 8.1% 11.1% 11.2% D 45 —

Angel Martinez S Edge

6.0% 3.8% 15.2% 7.7% D 43 —

130

Patrick Bailey S Edge

10.8% 3.1% 5.1% 7.6% D 41 —

145

Petey Halpin L Edge

6.1% 7.1% 11.8% 7.8% D 40 —

149

Jose Ramirez L Edge

— — — — D 39 —

177

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.6% 1.3% 3.8% 3.0% D 37 —

247

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.2% usage) carries Martinez's damage — FB is the leak. 8 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 70.0% ← leak OFF 15.2% BRK 14.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.2% 7.0% 10.9% 13.0% C+ 64 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.4% 5.6% 13.3% 10.1% D 49 —

108

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.3% 9.1% 3.8% 4.3% D 43 —

114

Yandy Diaz R

5.1% 5.3% 11.0% 7.1% D 42 —

134

Hunter Feduccia L Edge

15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% D 41 —

181

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.1% 3.7% 2.2% 4.1% D 36 —

206

Ben Williamson R

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% D 32 —

251

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.0% usage) carries Bibee's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bazzana Bailey Rocchio Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Bibee fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.01× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.01× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.63 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Travis Bazzana 45 D — WARM 79 0.167 88.1 5.9% 21.9%vs RHP 396 13.3% 27.3% 16.9% 26

2 Gabriel Arias 45 D — COOL 81 0.164 91.7 9.2% 50.0%vs RHP 416 10.5% 0.0% 13.7% 12

3 Kyle Manzardo 45 D — WARM 87 0.151 89.3 9.0% 21.1%vs RHP 385 11.1% 14.3% 10.9% 18

4 Angel Martinez 43 D — COOL 99 0.203 87.9 7.4% 29.0%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 4

5 Patrick Bailey 41 D — WARM 130 0.111 90.1 7.3% 10.0%vs RHP 405 6.6% 28.6% 12.3% 22

6 Petey Halpin 40 D — COOL 145 0.134 86.4 7.3% 9.1%vs RHP 404 5.9% 11.1% 10.6% 28

7 Jose Ramirez 39 D — COOL 149 0.174 89.8 6.8% 12.7%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 8

8 Brayan Rocchio 37 D — WARM 177 0.131 86.5 4.7% 14.6%vs RHP 386 8.2% 18.2% 8.3% 38

9 Steven Kwan 23 D — COOL 247 0.059 83.4 1.5% 1.9%vs RHP 381 1.1% 0.0% 6.3% 31

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 64 C+ — · 9 0.263 93.1 10.7% 40.7%vs RHP 408 27.0% 18.2% 19.8% 33

2 Jonathan Aranda 49 D — · 65 0.159 91.0 9.3% 18.7%vs RHP 387 12.4% 10.0% 11.6% 27

3 Cedric Mullins 43 D — COOL 108 0.143 88.0 6.0% 21.1%vs RHP 393 13.8% 12.5% 10.8% 23

4 Yandy Diaz 42 D — WARM 114 0.160 90.7 7.8% 22.5%vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 42

5 Hunter Feduccia 41 D — COOL 134 0.107 90.7 8.7% 8.7%vs RHP 409 5.6% 0.0% 8.3% 11

6 Richie Palacios 36 D — COOL 181 0.099 85.7 6.0% 9.4%vs RHP 394 3.8% 0.0% 10.0% 17

7 Ben Williamson 32 D — COOL 206 0.078 87.3 3.8% 10.0%vs RHP 398 2.9% 0.0% 7.6% 24

8 Chandler Simpson 21 D — COOL 251 0.061 83.7 — 3.6%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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