TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.97×

SD @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 12 mph in 91°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-12 ↑

4:10p

-11 ↑

5:10p

-11 ↑

6:10p

-11 ↑

7:10p

-12 ↑

8:10p

best window is early — 5:10p at -11

Best of game Liam Hicks conv 11 · vs Sears ⟷ Ty France conv 42 · vs Pérez → edge: Ty France

ATTACK JP Sears LHP · SD

leak 99

1.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.80 · leakiest side of this game

1 Liam Hicks — D ●●○○○

2 Heriberto Hernández +350 D ●○○○○

3 Kyle Stowers +425 D ●○○○○

FADE Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 97

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ty France +575 C+ ●●●●●

2 Manny Machado +400 C ●●●●○

3 Jackson Merrill +500 D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ty France: 12.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Ty France ✶ HOT vs Pérez +575 0.269 · 92.2 · 11.8% 50.0% 34.1% F B O C+ 62

· SD Manny Machado vs Pérez +400 0.224 · 90.4 · 11.3% 20.0% 29.3% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill HOT vs Pérez Edge +500 0.151 · 89.6 · 10.6% 33.3% 13.5% F B O D 46

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Sears — 0.166 · 85.3 · 5.8% 11.1% 9.9% F B O D 39

· MIA Heriberto Hernández HOT vs Sears Edge +350 0.228 · 92.4 · 10.6% 0.0% 15.2% F B O D 46

· MIA Kyle Stowers COOL vs Sears +425 0.203 · 91.5 · 10.0% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 47

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Pérez Edge +625 0.189 · 87.9 · 9.1% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 42

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Pérez +850 0.105 · 88.0 · 8.5% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 34

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Sears — 0.094 · 86.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 30

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Sears Edge +625 0.166 · 89.5 · 7.9% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 40

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Sears Edge +950 0.114 · 87.0 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· MIA Javier Sanoja COOL vs Sears Edge +750 0.131 · 87.1 · 3.4% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 30

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Pérez Edge +700 0.084 · 87.5 · 8.1% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.6% ← leak BRK 35.3% OFF 10.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ty France R

13.2% 13.3% 8.0% 12.5% C+ 62 +575

Manny Machado R

13.4% 7.7% 7.9% 11.1% C 56 +400

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

12.8% 9.6% 6.3% 10.5% D 46 +500

116

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.8% 4.7% 2.0% 7.1% D 42 +625

175

Xander Bogaerts R

8.0% 2.8% 4.0% 6.2% D 34 +850

196

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

6.0% 5.3% 4.5% 5.6% D 31 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.6% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.2% BRK 28.8% OFF 23.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kyle Stowers L

12.1% 14.9% 2.9% 11.2% D 47 +425

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

13.7% 13.5% 8.3% 13.3% D 46 +350

134

Otto Lopez R Edge

10.4% 4.1% 2.1% 7.0% D 40 +625

140

Liam Hicks L

3.5% 6.0% 3.8% 4.2% D 39 —

187

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.3% 2.8% 3.3% 4.3% D 32 +950

204

Jakob Marsee L

2.8% 0.0% 8.6% 3.2% D 30 —

207

Javier Sanoja R Edge

0.8% 2.6% 0.0% 1.3% D 30 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Sears's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Machado Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Sears fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ty France +575 · 62

Manny Machado +400 · 56

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.89× Wind 12 mph in 91°F retractable

-12

↑

11 mph · in

88°F

4:10p

-11

↑

10 mph · in

88°F

5:10p · peak

-11

↑

10 mph · in

87°F

6:10p

-11

↑

11 mph · in

86°F

7:10p

-12

↑

12 mph · in

86°F

8:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.97× 91°F, wind 12 mph SSE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France ✶ 62 C+ +575 HOT 12 0.269 92.2 11.8% 37.5%vs RHP 394 20.8% 50.0% 34.1% 28

2 Manny Machado 56 C +400 · 22 0.224 90.4 11.3% 30.5%vs RHP 397 20.4% 20.0% 29.3% 29

3 Jackson Merrill 46 D +500 HOT 79 0.151 89.6 10.6% 17.7%vs RHP 407 13.5% 33.3% 13.5% 27

4 Gavin Sheets 42 D +625 COOL 116 0.189 87.9 9.1% 31.2%vs RHP 397 11.2% 0.0% 11.6% 18

5 Xander Bogaerts 34 D +850 · 175 0.105 88.0 8.5% 16.7%vs RHP 396 8.3% 0.0% 8.7% 26

6 Jake Cronenworth 31 D +700 COOL 196 0.084 87.5 8.1% 15.0%vs RHP 389 1.8% 0.0% 6.7% 22

vs JP Sears · LHP 1.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.80 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 47 D +425 COOL 70 0.203 91.5 10.0% 14.3%vs LHP 396 10.8% 0.0% 13.5% 16

2 Heriberto Hernández 46 D +350 HOT 73 0.228 92.4 10.6% 36.8%vs LHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 19

3 Otto Lopez 40 D +625 COOL 134 0.166 89.5 7.9% 9.1%vs LHP 402 8.1% 0.0% 8.0% 17

4 Liam Hicks 39 D — COOL 140 0.166 85.3 5.8% 7.1%vs LHP 378 15.3% 11.1% 9.9% 23

5 Xavier Edwards 32 D +950 COOL 187 0.114 87.0 6.2% 25.0%vs LHP 396 5.0% 0.0% 7.8% 20

6 Jakob Marsee 30 D — COOL 204 0.094 86.7 5.3% 12.5%vs LHP 379 6.1% 0.0% 8.5% 12

7 Javier Sanoja 30 D +750 COOL 207 0.131 87.1 3.4% 15.4%vs LHP 385 4.5% 0.0% 7.0% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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