TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ CWS

Suppressed air · 0.89×

HOU @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Sam Antonacci conv 19 · vs Brown ⟷ Yordan Alvarez conv 30 · vs Burke → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 85

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sam Antonacci — D ●●●○○

2 Colson Montgomery +700 C ●●○○○

3 Braden Montgomery — D ●●○○○

FADE Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 66

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Yordan Alvarez +750 C+ ●●●●●

2 Cam Smith — D ●●●●○

3 Jeremy Peña — D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: 18.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ vs Burke Edge +750 0.328 · 94.6 · 11.9% 33.3% 26.3% F B O C+ 66

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Brown Edge +700 0.248 · 88.9 · 9.3% 11.1% 20.4% F B O C 55

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Brown Edge +800 0.292 · 93.9 · 11.3% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 56

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Brown +750 0.241 · 90.4 · 9.8% 0.0% 15.6% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· HOU Cam Smith vs Burke — 0.152 · 89.5 · 9.5% 40.0% 14.9% F B O D 43

· HOU Jeremy Peña HOT vs Burke — 0.169 · 88.0 · 6.1% 37.5% 17.3% F B O D 40

· HOU Jose Altuve vs Burke — 0.170 · 85.8 · 6.6% 25.0% 15.0% F B O D 39

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Brown Edge — 0.130 · 87.5 · 6.6% 25.0% 12.2% F B O D 39

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Burke — 0.175 · 86.7 · 6.7% 22.2% 12.8% F B O D 40

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Brown Edge — 0.166 · 89.0 · 5.0% 11.1% 10.6% F B O D 37

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Burke — 0.218 · 89.4 · 8.5% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 46

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Brown Edge — 0.179 · 89.0 · 7.7% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 42

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Brown Edge — 0.167 · 87.4 · 5.7% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 37

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Burke +1000 0.149 · 87.8 · 6.2% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 34

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Brown — 0.104 · 87.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 31

· CWS Edgar Quero COOL vs Brown Edge — 0.046 · 90.9 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.0% ← leak BRK 38.4% OFF 2.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

19.6% 24.4% 9.7% 18.9% C+ 66 +750

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Christian Walker R

8.8% 10.0% 13.8% 9.7% D 46 —

104

Cam Smith R

9.4% 16.4% 19.2% 12.0% D 43 —

139

Jeremy Peña R

3.6% 5.5% 14.3% 5.0% D 40 —

141

Isaac Paredes R

7.8% 3.8% 2.4% 6.0% D 40 —

151

Jose Altuve R

6.5% 6.1% 0.0% 5.9% D 39 —

192

Yainer Diaz R

7.7% 2.0% 4.2% 5.2% D 34 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.0% usage) carries Burke's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.2% ← leak BRK 29.4% OFF 9.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

22.1% 15.7% 17.6% 19.1% C 56 +800

Colson Montgomery L Edge

13.6% 13.0% 14.7% 13.6% C 55 +700

Miguel Vargas R

16.4% 11.8% 12.9% 14.6% C 53 +750

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

123

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.4% 5.5% 6.1% 9.1% D 42 —

153

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.6% 6.0% 0.0% 6.7% D 39 —

174

Braden Montgomery S Edge

3.5% 5.6% 3.4% 3.8% D 37 —

175

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.5% 3.8% 0.0% 4.9% D 37 —

215

Chase Meidroth R

3.8% 6.8% 2.2% 4.4% D 31 —

237

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.6% 0.0% 4.0% 2.5% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.2% usage) carries Brown's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Smith Peña Paredes Altuve Montgomery Antonacci

Legend

attack side — vs Brown fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Yordan Alvarez +750 · 66

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof unknown

Park 0.89× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.89× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Burke · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 66 C+ +750 · 7 0.328 94.6 11.9% 28.6%vs RHP 405 28.8% 33.3% 26.3% 28

2 Christian Walker 46 D — COOL 74 0.218 89.4 8.5% 27.4%vs RHP 388 18.4% 0.0% 13.9% 13

3 Cam Smith 43 D — WARM 104 0.152 89.5 9.5% 19.6%vs RHP 411 13.0% 40.0% 14.9% 16

4 Jeremy Peña 40 D — HOT 139 0.169 88.0 6.1% 22.9%vs RHP 384 13.0% 37.5% 17.3% 28

5 Isaac Paredes 40 D — · 141 0.175 86.7 6.7% 18.9%vs RHP 376 12.1% 22.2% 12.8% 32

6 Jose Altuve 39 D — WARM 151 0.170 85.8 6.6% 23.8%vs RHP 377 10.6% 25.0% 15.0% 28

7 Yainer Diaz 34 D +1000 WARM 192 0.149 87.8 6.2% 23.1%vs RHP 391 9.4% 0.0% 9.0% 18

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 56 C +800 COOL 25 0.292 93.9 11.3% 36.4%vs RHP 409 14.6% 0.0% 17.8% 17

2 Colson Montgomery 55 C +700 COOL 30 0.248 88.9 9.3% 26.2%vs RHP 398 24.7% 11.1% 20.4% 16

3 Miguel Vargas 53 C +750 COOL 41 0.241 90.4 9.8% 15.2%vs RHP 389 20.0% 0.0% 15.6% 29

4 Andrew Benintendi 42 D — COOL 123 0.179 89.0 7.7% 17.0%vs RHP 389 13.4% 0.0% 10.6% 18

5 Sam Antonacci 39 D — COOL 153 0.130 87.5 6.6% 14.9%vs RHP 397 10.3% 25.0% 12.2% 25

6 Braden Montgomery 37 D — · 174 0.166 89.0 5.0% 23.1%vs RHP 371 6.2% 11.1% 10.6% 29

7 Tristan Peters 37 D — · 175 0.167 87.4 5.7% 10.3%vs RHP 377 8.2% 0.0% 9.0% 25

8 Chase Meidroth 31 D — · 215 0.104 87.9 5.4% 13.5%vs RHP 376 5.9% 0.0% 8.3% 22

9 Edgar Quero 28 D — COOL 237 0.046 90.9 4.0% 0.0%vs RHP 389 4.5% 0.0% 7.3% 3

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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