TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.35×

NYY @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 7 mph slight_out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

6:05p

+7 ↑

7:05p

+7 ↑

8:05p

+7 ↑

9:05p

+7 ↑

10:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +7 FIT

Best of game Trea Turner conv 26 · vs Weathers ⟷ Paul Goldschmidt conv 30 · vs Mayza → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Ryan Weathers LHP · NYY

leak 82

1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · leakiest side of this game

1 Trea Turner — C ●●●●○

2 Alec Bohm — D ●●●○○

3 Kyle Schwarber — B ●●●○○

FADE Tim Mayza LHP · PHI

leak 80

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●●●●●

2 Trent Grisham — C ●●●○○

3 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 18.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 11.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Mayza Edge — 0.223 · 86.5 · 9.1% 28.6% 31.8% F B O C 59

· PHI Trea Turner HOT vs Weathers Edge — 0.146 · 88.9 · 8.1% 33.3% 18.2% F B O C 51

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Mayza — 0.182 · 91.2 · 8.8% 27.3% 17.9% F B O C 53

· NYY Ben Rice vs Mayza — 0.312 · 92.3 · 10.6% 18.2% 22.9% F B O C+ 69

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Weathers — 0.299 · 93.3 · 13.5% 11.1% 23.9% F B O B 72

· PHI Derek Hill COOL vs Weathers Edge — 0.191 · 89.6 · 10.6% 0.0% 32.4% F B O C 53

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Weathers — 0.237 · 90.2 · 10.4% 11.1% 15.8% F B O C+ 61

· NYY Amed Rosario vs Mayza Edge — 0.216 · 90.3 · 9.0% 0.0% 19.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Weathers Edge — 0.148 · 90.6 · 7.3% 22.2% 16.7% F B O D 49

· PHI Edmundo Sosa COOL vs Weathers Edge — 0.138 · 87.7 · 8.2% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 45

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Mayza Edge — 0.143 · 83.8 · 5.1% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 37

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Mayza — 0.161 · 89.1 · 6.7% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 44

· NYY Jasson Dominguez COOL vs Mayza Edge — 0.160 · 88.1 · 5.9% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 40

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Weathers — 0.147 · 89.1 · 8.4% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 46

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Mayza — 0.098 · 88.7 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.9% BRK 33.1% OFF 3.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Ben Rice L

18.7% 11.2% 13.0% 15.5% C+ 69 —

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

15.2% 5.3% 10.7% 11.6% C 59 —

Trent Grisham L

12.2% 9.8% 5.7% 10.8% C 53 —

Amed Rosario R Edge

9.5% 12.0% 10.7% 10.3% C 52 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Cody Bellinger L

3.3% 11.6% 9.1% 6.2% D 44 —

138

Jasson Dominguez S Edge

4.2% 5.0% 6.1% 4.8% D 40 —

146

Austin Wells L

7.9% 6.9% 0.0% 6.4% D 40 —

168

Jose Caballero R Edge

— — — — D 37 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Mayza's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 44.1% ← leak BRK 31.6% OFF 24.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L

18.5% 16.2% 26.9% 18.8% B 72 —

Neutral · 3

Bryce Harper L

9.6% 15.5% 7.0% 11.1% C+ 61 —

Derek Hill R Edge

12.8% 11.5% 6.7% 11.4% C 53 —

Trea Turner R Edge

8.7% 5.0% 0.0% 6.7% C 51 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Alec Bohm R Edge

5.1% 4.9% 9.4% 5.5% D 49 —

Bryson Stott L

8.8% 4.9% 5.9% 7.2% D 46 —

Edmundo Sosa R Edge

8.3% 5.0% 5.6% 6.9% D 45 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.1% usage) carries Weathers's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Schwarber Harper Hill Turner Bohm

Legend

attack side — vs Weathers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Paul Goldschmidt — · 59

Trea Turner — · 51

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:05p · roof open

Park 1.12× Wind 7 mph slight_out 81°F open

↑

3 mph · out

80°F

6:05p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

80°F

7:05p

↑

3 mph · out

80°F

8:05p

↑

3 mph · out

80°F

9:05p

↑

3 mph · out

80°F

10:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 81°F, wind 7 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tim Mayza · LHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 69 C+ — WARM 5 0.312 92.3 10.6% 42.1%vs LHP 389 27.1% 18.2% 22.9% 22

2 Paul Goldschmidt 59 C — WARM 17 0.223 86.5 9.1% 33.3%vs LHP 390 18.3% 28.6% 31.8% 15

3 Trent Grisham 53 C — WARM 39 0.182 91.2 8.8% 12.5%vs LHP 390 11.5% 27.3% 17.9% 28

4 Amed Rosario 52 C — WARM 49 0.216 90.3 9.0% 17.4%vs LHP 392 11.1% 0.0% 19.2% 3

5 Cody Bellinger 44 D — WARM 94 0.161 89.1 6.7% 14.8%vs LHP 379 9.3% 0.0% 11.4% 20

6 Jasson Dominguez 40 D — COOL 138 0.160 88.1 5.9% 9.1%vs LHP 371 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 29

7 Austin Wells 40 D — COOL 146 0.098 88.7 6.8% 13.3%vs LHP 378 8.7% 0.0% 9.1% 12

8 Jose Caballero 37 D — COOL 168 0.143 83.8 5.1% 30.8%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 18

vs Ryan Weathers · LHP 1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 72 B — COOL 2 0.299 93.3 13.5% 44.8%vs LHP 403 25.0% 11.1% 23.9% 20

2 Bryce Harper 61 C+ — COOL 14 0.237 90.2 10.4% 10.0%vs LHP 400 19.2% 11.1% 15.8% 21

3 Derek Hill 53 C — COOL 37 0.191 89.6 10.6% 35.7%vs LHP 412 3.8% 0.0% 32.4% 8

4 Trea Turner 51 C — HOT 50 0.146 88.9 8.1% 9.4%vs LHP 391 13.4% 33.3% 18.2% 24

5 Alec Bohm 49 D — WARM 62 0.148 90.6 7.3% 18.2%vs LHP 396 12.5% 22.2% 16.7% 30

6 Bryson Stott 46 D — · 76 0.147 89.1 8.4% 8.3%vs LHP 393 7.4% 0.0% 9.5% 22

7 Edmundo Sosa 45 D — COOL 84 0.138 87.7 8.2% 25.0%vs LHP 400 6.9% 0.0% 12.5% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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