3
HRs allowed
12.5%
HR rate (pool)
17.9%
Overall HR/FB
3.3
FIP
2.92
xFIP
+0.39
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
81
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 81th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
60.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.5 EV · 413 ft
max EV allowed 109.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR ↑
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Tim Mayza.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
58.5%
82.4
13.6°
1
-1.7
Slider Breaking
32.6%
81.2
0.6°
4
+2.1
Fastball Hard
6.1%
74.7
30.2°
0
-2.7
Splitter Offspeed
2.8%
80.8
27.3°
0
+4.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups24
HRs allowed (pool)3
Pool HR rate12.5%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB17.9% 81
HR/9—
FIP3.3 23
xFIP2.92
FIP − xFIP+0.39 69
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed60.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-07
Sinker
Hard · 58.5% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle13.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches497
Slider
Breaking · 32.6% usage
+2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle0.6°
HRs allowed4
Pitches277
Fastball
Hard · 6.1% usage
-2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against74.7 mph
Avg launch angle30.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches52
Splitter
Offspeed · 2.8% usage
+4.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.8 mph
Avg launch angle27.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches24
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Tim Mayza.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
3 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.5 EV · 413 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 3 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-25
8
2
109.0
2026-06-27
8
0
109.0
2026-06-22
8
1
104.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Tim Mayza isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Tim Mayza isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
8
2
25%
8
1
12%
8
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.