2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Matt Olson 7 HRs · 2 Ceddanne Rafaela 5 HRs · 3 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 4 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 4 HRs · 6 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 7 Wilyer Abreu 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Chase Meidroth 3 HRs · 10 Ezequiel Duran 3 HRs · 11 Royce Lewis 3 HRs · 12 Randy Arozarena 3 HRs 1 Matt Olson 7 HRs · 2 Ceddanne Rafaela 5 HRs · 3 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 4 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 4 HRs · 6 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 7 Wilyer Abreu 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Chase Meidroth 3 HRs · 10 Ezequiel Duran 3 HRs · 11 Royce Lewis 3 HRs · 12 Randy Arozarena 3 HRs
Tim Mayza

Tim Mayza

LHP PHI
24 matchups scored · 3 game days
3
HRs allowed
12.5%
HR rate (pool)
17.9%
Overall HR/FB
3.3
FIP
2.92
xFIP
+0.39
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter STINGY
LEAKY 81
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
81
no model flags today
Vulnerability 81th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
60.9%
60.9%
Fly-ball rate
avg HR 103.5 EV · 413 ft max EV allowed 109.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
2026-06-22 · 1 HR 2026-07-25 · 2 HR
7D · 2 HR ↑ 15D · 2 HR ↑ 30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Not on today's slate — matchup context appears when he's next listed.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Tim Mayza.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard 58.5% 82.4 13.6° 1 -1.7
Slider Breaking 32.6% 81.2 0.6° 4 +2.1
Fastball Hard 6.1% 74.7 30.2° 0 -2.7
Splitter Offspeed 2.8% 80.8 27.3° 0 +4.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups24
HRs allowed (pool)3
Pool HR rate12.5%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB17.9% 81
HR/9
FIP3.3 23
xFIP2.92
FIP − xFIP+0.39 69
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed60.9%
FB%
K/9
BB/9
WHIP
IP
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-07
Sinker
Hard · 58.5% usage
-1.7 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle13.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches497
Slider
Breaking · 32.6% usage
+2.1 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle0.6°
HRs allowed4
Pitches277
Fastball
Hard · 6.1% usage
-2.7 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against74.7 mph
Avg launch angle30.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches52
Splitter
Offspeed · 2.8% usage
+4.5 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.8 mph
Avg launch angle27.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches24
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Tim Mayza.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
3 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.5 EV · 413 ft 2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
2026-07-25 Jasson Domínguez #112 43 Citizens Bank Park 105.6 27.0° 420
2026-07-25 Austin Wells #147 40 Citizens Bank Park 105.7 27.0° 430
2026-06-22 Curtis Mead #72 53 Nationals Park 99.1 28.0° 390
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 3 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-25 Citizens Bank Park 8 2 109.0
2026-06-27 Citi Field 8 0 109.0
2026-06-22 Nationals Park 8 1 104.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Tim Mayza isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Tim Mayza isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
Citizens Bank Park 8 2 25%
Nationals Park 8 1 12%
Citi Field 8 0 0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Six home runs to freedom

Tim Mayza's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see the Threat Matrix, vulnerability signals, arsenal damage, BvP history, HR log, and ballpark conditions.

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.
24 more waiting in the on-deck circle
THR 3.3.152 · build 657

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.

Yesterday's board graded name-by-name — hits and misses — plus tonight's ranked board (scores and matchups; batter names are Pro), free in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.