2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
Mike Paredes
Mike Paredes RHP MIN
25 matchups scored · 3 game days
1 HRs Allowed
4.0% HR Rate (Pool)
12.8% Overall HR/FB
5.2 FIP
5.46 xFIP
-0.26 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
0.33
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
12.8%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
53th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
79.2%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
5.2
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
83th pctile
5.46
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.26
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
35th pctile
4.0%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
25
Pool Matchups
1
HRs Allowed (Pool)
1
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
4.0%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 16 2 1 6.2% 0.5 99.4mph 104.3mph 33.0° 394ft Up +2.2pp
Last 15 25 3 1 4.0% 0.33 97.8mph 104.3mph 33.0° 394ft Flat +0.0pp
Last 30 25 3 1 4.0% 0.33 97.8mph 104.3mph 33.0° 394ft Flat +0.0pp
Batted-Ball Damage
24 tracked BBE from 25 pool matchups
97.8
109.1
19
0
104.3
33.0°
394
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-21 Ketel Marte 109.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-21 Tommy Troy 106.2mph · · · ·
2026-06-21 Corbin Carroll 105.8mph · · · ·
2026-06-15 Jake Burger 104.9mph · · · ·
2026-06-15 Joc Pederson 104.3mph 104.3mph 33° 394ft Yes
2026-06-15 Brandon Nimmo 103.9mph · · · ·
2026-06-15 Alejandro Osuna 103.2mph · · · ·
2026-06-10 Dillon Dingler 105.2mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
3 days · 1 total HRs
HRs Allowed
1 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-15 Joc Pederson #62 51 Globe Life Field 104.3mph 33.0° 394ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Fastball 122 39.7% -0.8 86.6 23.9° 1
Changeup 70 22.8% +1.1 87.7 -4.3° 0
Sweeper 66 21.5% -1.1 80.2 21.8° 0
Cutter 49 16.0% -2.6 86.3 2.1° 1
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
79.2%
79.2%
All Scored Matchups
25 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-21 Pavin Smith #215 25 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-21 Geraldo Perdomo #197 30 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-21 Ildemaro Vargas #176 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-21 Jorge Barrosa #175 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-21 Nolan Arenado #166 37 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-21 Tommy Troy #157 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-21 Ketel Marte #108 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-21 Gabriel Moreno #86 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-21 Corbin Carroll #32 63 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-15 Alejandro Osuna #148 12 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-15 Nicky Lopez #145 21 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-15 Josh Jung #118 36 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-15 Brandon Nimmo #92 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-15 Wyatt Langford #80 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-15 Joc Pederson #62 51 🟠 C ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-15 Jake Burger #59 52 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-10 Colt Keith #209 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-10 Zach McKinstry #203 27 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-10 Zack Short #190 29 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-10 Gleyber Torres #149 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-10 Kevin McGonigle #138 40 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-10 Riley Greene #51 57 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-10 Spencer Torkelson #43 58 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-10 Kerry Carpenter #22 64 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-10 Dillon Dingler #7 80 🟢 A 📈 WARM ·
Six home runs to freedom

Mike Paredes's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

25 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.