Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, LongDong scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-06-30T17:00:33-04:00
HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-06-30
| # | Pitcher | 7d Rank |
Tier
Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35 |
Score
Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/IP — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 508 qualified pitchers. |
Score +/- Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view. | HRs | IP |
HR/IP
Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.129. Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9. Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9. |
HR/FB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Gap | Pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Steven Cruz
KC
🎯
|
+5 | 🔥 Extreme | +10.0 | 8 77th | 25.3 | 0.316 | 34.8% | 6.23 | 6.23 | 3.54 | +2.69 | 4/7 | |
| 2 |
Luis Morales
ATH
🎯
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | -3.0 | 5 | 12.0 | 0.417 | 31.2% | 11.32 | 11.32 | 7.98 | +3.34 | 4/17 | |
| 3 |
Jameson Taillon
CHC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -1.8 | 22 100th | 71.0 | 0.310 | 23.2% | 6.49 | 6.49 | 4.55 | +1.94 | 16/115 | |
| 4 |
Dean Kremer
BAL
🎯
|
-2 | ⚠️ High | -2.8 | 4 | 11.0 | 0.364 | 33.3% | 5.51 | 5.51 | 2.49 | +3.02 | 2/9 | |
| 5 |
Ken Waldichuk
WSH
🎯
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 10.3 | 0.388 | 33.3% | 8.39 | 8.39 | 5.16 | +3.23 | · | |
| 6 |
Luis Curvelo
TEX
🎯
|
+1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 10.7 | 0.467 | 26.3% | 8.76 | 8.76 | 5.45 | +3.31 | · | |
| 7 |
Brady Singer
CIN
🎯
|
-2 | ⚠️ High | -2.0 | 20 99th | 80.3 | 0.249 | 23.8% | 5.89 | 5.89 | 4.28 | +1.61 | 24/126 | |
| 8 |
Aaron Bummer
ATL
🎯
|
+4 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 6 | 16.7 | 0.359 | 30.0% | 8.24 | 8.24 | 5.44 | +2.80 | · | |
| 9 |
Taijuan Walker
PHI
🎯
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | -2.8 | 8 77th | 22.7 | 0.352 | 24.2% | 7.82 | 7.82 | 5.51 | +2.31 | 4/18 | |
| 10 |
Kodai Senga
NYM
🎯
|
+1 | ⚠️ High | -1.4 | 10 86th | 32.3 | 0.310 | 27.0% | 7.14 | 7.14 | 4.91 | +2.23 | 9/79 | |
| 11 |
Zack Littell
WSH
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | -2.0 | 22 100th | 79.0 | 0.278 | 18.3% | 6.56 | 6.56 | 5.30 | +1.26 | 20/120 | |
| 12 |
Jeffrey Springs
ATH
|
-3 | ⚠️ High | -2.7 | 22 100th | 89.3 | 0.246 | 19.5% | 5.56 | 5.56 | 4.33 | +1.23 | 28/135 | |
| 13 |
Ryan Weiss
HOU
|
+2 | ⚠️ High | -1.4 | 8 77th | 26.0 | 0.308 | 27.6% | 7.15 | 7.15 | 4.89 | +2.26 | 2/18 | |
| 14 |
Edward Cabrera
CHC
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -1.7 | 17 97th | 75.0 | 0.227 | 25.0% | 5.56 | 5.56 | 4.03 | +1.53 | 16/122 | |
| 15 |
Valente Bellozo
COL
|
+2 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 13.7 | 0.365 | 27.8% | 8.62 | 8.62 | 5.93 | +2.69 | · | |
| 16 |
Max Scherzer
TOR
|
-3 | ⚠️ High | -2.8 | 9 82th | 26.7 | 0.337 | 22.5% | 7.83 | 7.83 | 5.79 | +2.04 | 10/44 | |
| 17 | -1 | ⚠️ High | -1.0 | 20 99th | 82.0 | 0.244 | 20.8% | 6.50 | 6.50 | 5.16 | +1.34 | 13/101 | ||
| 18 | +3 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 16.0 | 0.312 | 27.8% | 7.78 | 7.78 | 5.47 | +2.31 | · | ||
| 19 |
Justin Lawrence
PIT
|
+3 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 77th | 31.0 | 0.258 | 28.6% | 6.96 | 6.96 | 5.01 | +1.95 | · | |
| 20 |
Aaron Nola
PHI
|
-2 | ⚠️ High | -1.7 | 18 98th | 83.0 | 0.217 | 19.8% | 5.02 | 5.02 | 3.91 | +1.11 | 17/135 | |
| 21 |
Cole Ragans
KC
|
-2 | ⚠️ High | -1.9 | 10 86th | 39.3 | 0.254 | 23.3% | 5.67 | 5.67 | 4.07 | +1.60 | 11/71 | |
| 22 | +3 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 11.7 | 0.342 | 25.0% | 7.94 | 7.94 | 5.63 | +2.31 | · | ||
| 23 |
Tony Santillan
CIN
|
+3 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 9 82th | 31.3 | 0.288 | 24.3% | 6.31 | 6.31 | 4.42 | +1.89 | · | |
| 24 |
Mike Burrows
HOU
|
-4 | ⚠️ High | -2.2 | 19 99th | 90.3 | 0.210 | 18.1% | 5.44 | 5.44 | 4.52 | +0.92 | 21/127 | |
| 25 |
Ryan Weathers
NYY
|
-2 | 📊 Elevated | -1.7 | 17 97th | 90.7 | 0.187 | 21.5% | 4.26 | 4.26 | 3.19 | +1.07 | 14/138 | |
| 26 |
Shota Imanaga
CHC
|
-2 | 📊 Elevated | -1.6 | 20 99th | 96.0 | 0.208 | 16.8% | 4.83 | 4.83 | 4.05 | +0.78 | 24/162 | |
| 27 |
Andrew Kittredge
BAL
|
+2 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 4 | 19.0 | 0.211 | 33.3% | 4.99 | 4.99 | 3.24 | +1.75 | · | |
| 28 | -1 | 📊 Elevated | -1.5 | 17 97th | 80.3 | 0.212 | 18.9% | 5.15 | 5.15 | 4.15 | +1.00 | 15/121 | ||
| 29 |
Phil Maton
CHC
|
+3 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 6 | 28.3 | 0.212 | 30.0% | 5.87 | 5.87 | 4.22 | +1.65 | · | |
| 30 |
Eric Lauer
TOR
|
-2 | 📊 Elevated | -2.2 | 16 96th | 63.3 | 0.253 | 16.3% | 6.29 | 6.29 | 5.42 | +0.87 | 14/95 | |
| 31 |
Mitchell Parker
WSH
|
+4 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 11 89th | 44.0 | 0.250 | 22.4% | 5.51 | 5.51 | 4.00 | +1.51 | · | |
| 32 |
Zac Gallen
AZ
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | -1.3 | 18 98th | 90.0 | 0.200 | 17.3% | 5.69 | 5.69 | 4.90 | +0.79 | 16/154 | |
| 33 |
Miles Mikolas
WSH
|
+4 | 📊 Elevated | -0.5 | 16 96th | 77.0 | 0.208 | 18.6% | 5.37 | 5.37 | 4.41 | +0.96 | 6/69 | |
| 34 | -1 | 📊 Elevated | -1.3 | 9 82th | 32.3 | 0.279 | 19.6% | 6.49 | 6.49 | 5.09 | +1.40 | 6/54 | ||
| 35 |
Nathan Eovaldi
TEX
|
+3 | 📊 Elevated | -1.2 | 17 97th | 104.0 | 0.163 | 19.5% | 4.20 | 4.20 | 3.38 | +0.82 | 14/138 | |
| 36 |
Emmet Sheehan
LAD
|
-6 | 📊 Elevated | -2.4 | 15 95th | 76.0 | 0.197 | 17.6% | 4.60 | 4.60 | 3.78 | +0.82 | 21/112 | |
| 37 |
Kyle Freeland
COL
|
+6 | 📊 Elevated | -0.9 | 16 96th | 75.3 | 0.212 | 17.0% | 5.16 | 5.16 | 4.34 | +0.82 | 12/119 | |
| 38 |
Justin Topa
MIN
|
+9 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 21.0 | 0.238 | 26.3% | 6.67 | 6.67 | 4.99 | +1.68 | · | |
| 39 |
Brandon Sproat
MIL
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | -1.7 | 13 93th | 71.7 | 0.181 | 20.6% | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.02 | +0.98 | 18/132 | |
| 40 |
Jonathan Pintaro
NYM
|
NEW | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 12.3 | 0.244 | 27.3% | 5.59 | 5.59 | 3.81 | +1.78 | · | |
| 41 |
David Sandlin
CWS
|
-7 | 📊 Elevated | -2.9 | 4 | 19.0 | 0.211 | 26.7% | 5.36 | 5.36 | 3.86 | +1.50 | 3/25 | |
| 42 |
Jalen Beeks
TEX
|
NEW | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 7 | 28.3 | 0.247 | 23.3% | 5.76 | 5.76 | 4.20 | +1.56 | · | |
| 43 |
Connor Brogdon
CLE
|
NEW | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 16.7 | 0.299 | 21.7% | 5.66 | 5.66 | 3.92 | +1.74 | · | |
| 44 |
Bryan Abreu
HOU
|
NEW | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 6 | 27.3 | 0.220 | 26.1% | 6.85 | 6.85 | 5.31 | +1.54 | · | |
| 45 |
Chris Martin
TEX
|
NEW | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 11.0 | 0.273 | 25.0% | 6.15 | 6.15 | 4.31 | +1.84 | · | |
| 46 |
Tanner Bibee
CLE
|
-4 | 📊 Elevated | -1.7 | 18 98th | 98.7 | 0.182 | 16.1% | 4.76 | 4.76 | 4.16 | +0.60 | 18/148 | |
| 47 | -3 | 📊 Elevated | -1.7 | 8 77th | 41.0 | 0.195 | 24.2% | 5.56 | 5.56 | 4.28 | +1.28 | 8/79 | ||
| 48 |
Andrew Painter
PHI
|
-8 | 📊 Elevated | -2.1 | 14 94th | 64.3 | 0.218 | 16.5% | 5.59 | 5.59 | 4.82 | +0.77 | 19/114 | |
| 49 |
Roki Sasaki
LAD
|
-3 | 📊 Elevated | -1.2 | 14 94th | 73.7 | 0.190 | 19.2% | 5.36 | 5.36 | 4.44 | +0.92 | 10/103 | |
| 50 |
Spencer Strider
ATL
|
-9 | 📊 Elevated | -2.1 | 9 82th | 37.7 | 0.239 | 19.1% | 5.48 | 5.48 | 4.33 | +1.15 | 12/70 |
How this works:
The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using
real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%),
and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool.
FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date.
Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available.
Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (508 qualify in this view).
The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon
directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)