Slate · 2026-06-21

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2026-06-21

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 3 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#4 Brandon Lowe vs Michael Lorenzen FIP 5.14 HR/FB 29.4% #13 Endy Rodríguez vs Michael Lorenzen FIP 5.14 HR/FB 29.4% #15 Tyler Callihan vs Michael Lorenzen FIP 5.14 HR/FB 29.4%

📦 STACK Michael Lorenzen FIP 5.14 HR/FB 29.4% → #4 Brandon Lowe, #13 Endy Rodríguez, #15 Tyler Callihan

📦 STACK Brandon Young FIP 4.15 HR/FB 12.1% → #5 Shohei Ohtani, #6 Max Muncy, #14 Ryan Ward

📦 STACK Reid Detmers FIP 2.91 HR/FB 5.6% → #9 Nick Kurtz, #12 Max Muncy

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Due	BP	Weather	Hit?
1	·Byron Buxton (R)	86	·	AZ Bullpen Proxy MIN @ AZ · Chase Field	3:15p	🟢 A	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	25	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%18.9% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.32 FIP4.60 IP686.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+1 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp97.5°F Wind2.0 mph N Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+1 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note98°F, wind 2 mph N (out) — modifier: +3
2	Ben Rice (L) ³	81	+2.6	Chase Burns (RHP) CIN @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	1:35p	🟢 A	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.42 FIP5.09 IP666.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-55 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.4°F Wind6.0 mph W Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-55 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 6 mph W (in) — modifier: +1	Ben Rice — Home Run OffChase Burns Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle41.0° Distance375 ft StadiumYankee Stadium
3	Kyle Schwarber (L) ⁴	78	-1.0	David Peterson (LHP) NYM @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	7:20p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	29	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV93.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.3×	NYM Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/90.96 FIP3.85 IP647.9 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+18 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82.9°F Wind5.0 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+18 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note83°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +1	Kyle Schwarber — Home Run OffDavid Peterson Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle35.0° Distance418 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park
4	·Brandon Lowe (L) ³	77	·	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) PIT @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.8×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.38 FIP4.81 IP678.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+46 Weather · Coors Field hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.1°F Wind4 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+46 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note86°F, wind 4 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +2
5	·Shohei Ohtani (L) ⁴	77	·	Brandon Young (RHP) BAL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	4:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV93.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	BAL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.1% HR/91.09 FIP4.21 IP684.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+52 Weather · Dodger Stadium mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.7°F Wind7.4 mph S Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+52 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note71°F, wind 7 mph S (out) — modifier: +2
6	·Max Muncy (S) ⁵	75	·	Brandon Young (RHP) BAL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	4:10p	🟡 B	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	4	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls48 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	BAL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.1% HR/91.09 FIP4.21 IP684.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+53 Weather · Dodger Stadium mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.7°F Wind7.4 mph S Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+53 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note71°F, wind 7 mph S (out) — modifier: +2
7	·Juan Soto (L) ⁴	74	+1.0	Zack Wheeler (RHP) NYM @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	7:20p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV93.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	PHI Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.3% HR/91.17 FIP3.79 IP670.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+18 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82.9°F Wind5.0 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+18 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note83°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +1
8	Nick Kurtz (L) ³	73	·	Reid Detmers (LHP) LAA @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	4:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV94.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.11 FIP4.56 IP696.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium	Nick Kurtz — Home Run OffBrent Suter Exit Velo109.2 mph Angle27.0° Distance437 ft StadiumSutter Health Park
9	Pete Alonso (R) ²	73	·	Emmet Sheehan (RHP) BAL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	4:10p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV94.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.5% HR/91.01 FIP3.62 IP660.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+52 Weather · Dodger Stadium mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.7°F Wind7.4 mph S Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+52 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note71°F, wind 7 mph S (out) — modifier: +2	Pete Alonso — Home Run OffJonathan Hernández Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle34.0° Distance398 ft StadiumDodger Stadium
10	·James Wood (L) ⁴	72	·	Nick Martinez (RHP) WSH @ TB · Tropicana Field	1:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%12.7% Avg EV95.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.3×	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.1% HR/91.12 FIP4.10 IP681.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
11	·Colson Montgomery (L) ³	72	·	Keider Montero (RHP) CWS @ DET · Comerica Park	1:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	DET Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.4% HR/90.99 FIP3.96 IP682.5 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-23 Weather · Comerica Park warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.4°F Wind4.5 mph ESE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-23 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 4 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +0
12	·Max Muncy (S) ⁵	71	·	Reid Detmers (LHP) LAA @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	4:05p	🟡 B	SHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	4	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls48 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.11 FIP4.56 IP696.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
13	·Endy Rodríguez (S) ³	71	·	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) PIT @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🟡 B	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	3	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.38 FIP4.81 IP678.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+50 Weather · Coors Field hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.1°F Wind4 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+50 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note86°F, wind 4 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +2
14	·Ryan Ward (L) ²	70	·	Brandon Young (RHP) BAL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	4:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	3	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%8.4% Avg EV89.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	BAL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.1% HR/91.09 FIP4.21 IP684.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+52 Weather · Dodger Stadium mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.7°F Wind7.4 mph S Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+52 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note71°F, wind 7 mph S (out) — modifier: +2
15	·Tyler Callihan (L) ⁵	70	·	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) PIT @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	2	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV86.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.38 FIP4.81 IP678.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+46 Weather · Coors Field hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.1°F Wind4 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+46 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note86°F, wind 4 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +2
16	·Matt Olson (L) ³	70	·	Robert Gasser (LHP) MIL @ ATL · Truist Park	1:35p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	20	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.5×	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.8% HR/90.93 FIP3.56 IP669.2 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+31 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82.0°F Wind1.0 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note82°F, wind 1 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1
17	·Bryce Eldridge (L) ²	70	·	Ryan Gusto (RHP) SF @ MIA · loanDepot Park	1:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	6	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%13.4% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.7% HR/90.95 FIP3.92 IP712.5 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · loanDepot Park neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
18	Zach Neto (R) ³	69	·	Jack Perkins (RHP) LAA @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	4:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	17	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	ATH Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.9% HR/91.51 FIP4.93 IP669.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium	Zach Neto — Home Run OffElvis Alvarado Exit Velo94.4 mph Angle33.0° Distance391 ft StadiumSutter Health Park
19	·Gunnar Henderson (L) ⁴	67	·	Emmet Sheehan (RHP) BAL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	4:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV89.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.8×	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.5% HR/91.01 FIP3.62 IP660.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+52 Weather · Dodger Stadium mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.7°F Wind7.4 mph S Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+52 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note71°F, wind 7 mph S (out) — modifier: +2
20	·Kazuma Okamoto (R) ²	67	-3.4	Shota Imanaga (LHP) TOR @ CHC · Wrigley Field	2:20p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV92.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.6% HR/91.52 FIP4.70 IP693.3 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-47 Weather · Wrigley Field mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp67.2°F Wind1.0 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-47 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note67°F, wind 1 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0
21	·Spencer Jones (L)	67	·	Chase Burns (RHP) CIN @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	1:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	2	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls13 BBE Barrel%5.9% Avg EV97.1 mph Surprise BarrelYes Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.42 FIP5.09 IP666.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-55 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.4°F Wind6.0 mph W Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-55 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 6 mph W (in) — modifier: +1
22	·Drake Baldwin (L) ⁴	66	·	Robert Gasser (LHP) MIL @ ATL · Truist Park	1:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	14	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls8 BBE Barrel%12.3% Avg EV92.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6.5×	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.8% HR/90.93 FIP3.56 IP669.2 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+31 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82.0°F Wind1.0 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note82°F, wind 1 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1
23	·Tyler Soderstrom (L) ³	66	·	Reid Detmers (LHP) LAA @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	4:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	13	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%8.5% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.8×	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.11 FIP4.56 IP696.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
24	·Kody Clemens (L)	66	·	AZ Bullpen Proxy MIN @ AZ · Chase Field	3:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	11	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV92.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.2×	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.32 FIP4.60 IP686.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp97.5°F Wind2.0 mph N Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note98°F, wind 2 mph N (out) — modifier: +3
25	Dillon Dingler (R) ⁵	66	-4.6	Davis Martin (RHP) CWS @ DET · Comerica Park	1:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%8.8% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.3×	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.18 FIP4.48 IP665.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-14 Weather · Comerica Park warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.4°F Wind4.5 mph ESE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-14 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 4 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +0	Dillon Dingler — Home Run OffGrant Taylor Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle20.0° Distance384 ft StadiumComerica Park
26	·Brett Sullivan (L) ²	65	·	Jared Jones (RHP) PIT @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	4	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%5.9% Avg EV86.7 mph Surprise BarrelYes Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	PIT Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.4% HR/90.98 FIP3.97 IP699.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+46 Weather · Coors Field hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.1°F Wind4 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+46 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note86°F, wind 4 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +2
27	Bryan Reynolds (S) ⁵	65	·	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) PIT @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🔵 C+	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	11	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV91.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.38 FIP4.81 IP678.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+50 Weather · Coors Field hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.1°F Wind4 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+50 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note86°F, wind 4 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +2	Bryan Reynolds — Home Run OffJuan Mejia Exit Velo107.0 mph Angle37.0° Distance433 ft StadiumCoors Field
28	·Jj Bleday (L) ⁴	64	·	Elmer Rodríguez (RHP) CIN @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	1:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%6.9% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	NYY Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.2% HR/90.91 FIP3.61 IP674.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-55 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.4°F Wind6.0 mph W Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-55 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 6 mph W (in) — modifier: +1
29	·Jonah Heim (S) ³	64	·	Reid Detmers (LHP) LAA @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	4:05p	🔵 C+	SHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	6	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%7.0% Avg EV87.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.11 FIP4.56 IP696.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
30	·Corbin Carroll (L) ³	63	·	Mike Paredes (RHP) MIN @ AZ · Chase Field	3:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%5.4% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.0% HR/91.08 FIP4.26 IP699.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp97.5°F Wind2.0 mph N Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note98°F, wind 2 mph N (out) — modifier: +3

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Tonight's 237 ranked batters are behind the wall - see them all. Six home runs to freedom.

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232 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

Today's Locks

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Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

18.7%

▼ -6.7 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 22.4% prior 15d

Results · 2026-06-21

31 HRs

35%

11 caught / 31 HRs

in top 50

#2 Kyle Schwarber

42.2%

🟡

#3 Ben Rice

39.5%

🟡

#9 Nick Kurtz

28.6%

🟡

#10 Pete Alonso

32.2%

🟡

#19 Zach Neto

30.3%

🔵

#27 TJ Rumfield

37.3%

🔵

#28 Bryan Reynolds

26.5%

🔵

#31 Dillon Dingler

29.8%

🔵

#37 Colton Cowser

27.3%

🔵

#38 Bryce Harper

20.9%

🔵

#45 CJ Abrams

24.7%

🔵

Missed

Dominic Canzone Donovan Walton Jac Caglianone Wyatt Langford Tyler Stephenson +15 more

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 20.6%

B 20.1%

C+ 16.2%

C 12.9%

D 8.4%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Slate · 2026-06-21

You saw the full board yesterday

The top 10 picks. Every morning.