BOS
@
4:10p
SEA
Stadium Conditions
T-Mobile Park
First pitch 4:10p
· roof retractable
Park 0.84×
Wind 2 mph in
67°F
retractable
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
4:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
5:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
6:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.84
67°F, wind 2 mph SSW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 60 | 🔵 C+ | · | ❄ COLD | 43 | 0.237 | 90.0 | 12.5% | 36.7% vs RHP | 402 | 20.0% | 16.7% | 25.7% | 28 |
| 2 |
|
Jarren Duran | 49 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 89 | 0.171 | 90.0 | 11.7% | 37.9% vs RHP | 396 | 15.5% | 16.7% | 16.2% | 31 |
| 3 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 41 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 140 | 0.176 | 86.6 | 8.4% | 15.8% vs RHP | 370 | 10.1% | 16.7% | 9.9% | 37 |
| 4 |
|
Caleb Durbin ⚡ | 34 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 182 | 0.139 | 85.2 | 5.6% | 17.4% vs RHP | 388 | 6.1% | 27.3% | 12.3% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 28 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 210 | 0.088 | 85.9 | 8.3% | 2.9% vs RHP | 388 | 3.9% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 23 |
| 6 |
|
Connor Wong | 24 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 220 | 0.105 | 87.6 | 6.2% | 0.0% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% | 4 |
| 7 |
|
Mickey Gasper | 23 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 223 | 0.068 | 88.7 | 7.8% | 0.0% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 32 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Dominic Canzone | 58 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 59 | 0.278 | 92.9 | 9.3% | 26.7% | 400 | 15.3% | 25.0% | 27.7% | 32 |
| 2 |
|
Julio Rodríguez ⚡ | 41 | ⚪ D | · | · | 139 | 0.190 | 90.0 | 7.2% | 32.0% vs LHP | 410 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 36 |
| 3 |
|
Cal Raleigh | 34 | ⚪ D | · | · | 188 | 0.149 | 87.5 | 8.4% | 8.3% vs LHP | 390 | 13.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 8 |
| 4 |
|
Cole Young | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 203 | 0.130 | 88.1 | 5.4% | 15.8% vs LHP | 385 | 8.2% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 48 |
| 5 |
|
Josh Naylor ⚡ | 28 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 208 | 0.119 | 87.9 | 5.3% | 8.3% vs LHP | 390 | 10.5% | 15.4% | 7.0% | 40 |
| 6 |
|
Rob Refsnyder | 27 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 211 | 0.091 | 86.9 | 6.3% | 17.6% vs LHP | 388 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 14 |
| 7 |
|
Weston Wilson | 20 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 231 | 0.109 | 86.9 | 4.3% | 12.5% vs LHP | 363 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 3 |