MIN
@
3:15p
AZ
Stadium Conditions
Chase Field
First pitch 3:15p
· roof retractable
Park 0.95×
Wind 2 mph out
98°F
retractable
+3
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
3:15p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
4:15p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
5:15p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
6:15p
Neutral for HR environment
+3
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
7:15p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.24
98°F, wind 2 mph N (out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
AZ Bullpen Proxy
1.32 HR/9
· FIP-xFIP +0.00
·
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Byron Buxton | 86 | 🟢 A | · | 🌤️ WARM | 1 | 0.328 | 90.7 | 18.9% | 25.5% | 402 | 34.4% | 54.5% | 28.0% | 33 |
| 2 |
|
Kody Clemens | 66 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 24 | 0.239 | 92.3 | 12.4% | 17.4% | 388 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 40 |
| 3 |
|
Royce Lewis | 60 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 47 | 0.166 | 88.7 | 13.0% | 14.0% | 397 | 19.4% | 33.3% | 16.5% | 38 |
| 4 |
|
Ryan Kreidler | 53 | 🟠 C | · | 🔥 HOT | 78 | 0.227 | 87.9 | 10.5% | 20.0% | 409 | 6.7% | 0.0% | 18.3% | 16 |
| 5 |
|
Brooks Lee | 48 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 94 | 0.186 | 87.5 | 4.9% | 16.7% | 371 | 16.2% | 27.3% | 15.3% | 45 |
| 6 |
|
Trevor Larnach | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 131 | 0.148 | 86.3 | 7.2% | 10.5% | 406 | 6.6% | 25.0% | 10.8% | 31 |
| 7 |
|
Luke Keaschall | 25 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 218 | 0.088 | 84.7 | 2.8% | 3.8% | 369 | 3.1% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 32 |
| 8 |
|
Alex Jackson | 20 | ⚪ D | · | · | 233 | 0.093 | 90.5 | · | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 14 |
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Corbin Carroll | 63 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 30 | 0.265 | 91.7 | 5.4% | 26.3% vs RHP | 406 | 18.2% | 33.3% | 29.6% | 38 |
| 2 |
|
Gabriel Moreno | 51 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 84 | 0.210 | 90.0 | 4.7% | 18.8% vs RHP | 395 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 16.5% | 33 |
| 3 |
|
Ketel Marte | 45 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 114 | 0.189 | 91.2 | 4.8% | 15.2% vs RHP | 413 | 12.3% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 43 |
| 4 |
|
Tommy Troy | 39 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 152 | 0.154 | 83.8 | 4.7% | 11.1% vs RHP | 374 | 7.1% | 14.3% | 6.4% | 22 |
| 5 |
|
Nolan Arenado ⚡ | 37 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 164 | 0.161 | 85.4 | 3.7% | 16.2% vs RHP | 400 | 10.3% | 0.0% | 7.2% | 33 |
| 6 |
|
Jorge Barrosa | 35 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 173 | 0.156 | 86.2 | 4.0% | 8.3% vs RHP | 376 | 3.0% | 0.0% | 11.0% | 5 |
| 7 |
|
Ildemaro Vargas | 35 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 174 | 0.159 | 86.9 | 2.9% | 11.5% vs RHP | 399 | 7.4% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 21 |
| 8 |
|
Geraldo Perdomo | 30 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 198 | 0.110 | 87.4 | 2.5% | 8.6% vs RHP | 379 | 5.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 30 |
| 9 |
|
Pavin Smith | 25 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 217 | 0.067 | 87.8 | 4.0% | 9.1% vs RHP | 384 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 17 |