Pavin Smith
Today's Matchup ?Live matchup data for today's game. Pitcher stats, report flags, park factor, and weather all feed into the model score.
LAD @ AZ · 9:40p
Shohei Ohtani
(RHP)
HR/FB 6.2% ?Pitcher's HR-per-fly-ball rate. Higher = more HR-prone. League avg is ~12%.
HR/9 0.31 ?Home runs allowed per 9 innings. Higher = pitcher gives up more longballs.
FIP 2.32 ?Fielding Independent Pitching — isolates pitcher skill from defense. Higher FIP = more HR-vulnerable.
#226
⚪ D
Chase Field
Park × 0.871 ?Park factor for this stadium. Values above 1.0 boost HR probability; below 1.0 suppress it. Based on multi-year park HR data.
WT 1 ?Weather modifier. Positive = wind/heat boost HRs. Negative = cold/headwind suppresses them. Based on live game-time weather data.
HR Profile
?Statcast-style HR metrics for this batter — same fields the model scores on. Red = elite, orange = above average, blue = below average, grey = no data.
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
0.130
ISO ?Isolated Power (SLG − AVG). >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg.
31th pctile
88.5
Avg EV (mph) ?Average exit velocity (mph) on all batted balls. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg.
38th pctile
6.3%
Barrel% ?Percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA combo). >12% elite.
23th pctile
15.4%
HR/FB ?Home runs per fly ball. >18% elite, league avg ~12%.
70th pctile
417
Avg HR Dist (ft) ?Average distance of this batter's HRs in feet. >400 elite raw power.
96th pctile
0.0%
Season HR% ?HRs ÷ plate appearances this season. v3.5 model feature — strongest single backtest contributor.
0.0%
14d Pace ?HRs per game over last 14 days. v3.5 model feature — captures current hot/cold streak.
7.6%
Match% ?Combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate — the headline "how favorable is this matchup" number.
19th pctile
2
BBE ?Batted-ball events — sample size. Treat stats with caution below 30.
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No results history for Pavin Smith
This batter hasn't appeared in the scored pool yet.