TOR
@
2:20p
CHC
Stadium Conditions
Wrigley Field
First pitch 2:20p
· roof open
Park 1.06×
Wind 1 mph cross
67°F
open
-2
5 mph · in
68°F
2:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
5 mph · in
68°F
3:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
5 mph · in
68°F
4:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
5 mph · in
68°F
5:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
5 mph · in
68°F
6:20p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.06
67°F, wind 1 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Kazuma Okamoto | 67 | 🔵 C+ | +425 | · | 20 | 0.200 | 92.1 | 12.6% | 26.7% vs LHP | 401 | 17.5% | 25.0% | 27.1% | 26 |
| 2 |
|
Brandon Valenzuela | 59 | 🟠 C | · | · | 51 | 0.200 | 89.7 | 9.6% | 28.6% vs LHP | 397 | 14.3% | 16.7% | 20.7% | 16 |
| 3 |
|
George Springer | 57 | 🟠 C | +475 | 🌤️ WARM | 65 | 0.181 | 88.4 | 9.4% | 12.5% vs LHP | 392 | 10.6% | 27.3% | 20.6% | 35 |
| 4 |
|
Jesús Sánchez | 56 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 69 | 0.183 | 91.0 | 10.8% | 0.0% vs LHP | 398 | 11.3% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 18 |
| 5 |
|
Daulton Varsho | 52 | 🟠 C | +575 | 🌤️ WARM | 83 | 0.146 | 86.0 | 8.3% | 16.7% vs LHP | 384 | 8.3% | 100.0% | 13.3% | 2 |
| 6 |
|
Ernie Clement | 42 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 137 | 0.145 | 85.4 | 5.3% | 13.6% vs LHP | 374 | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 35 |
| 7 |
|
Andres Gimenez | 39 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 148 | 0.142 | 86.3 | 6.6% | 22.2% vs LHP | 391 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.0% | 26 |
| 8 |
|
Nathan Lukes | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 193 | 0.102 | 86.2 | 3.1% | 7.1% | 383 | 3.6% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 33 |
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 61 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 40 | 0.222 | 91.4 | 7.3% | 19.6% vs RHP | 393 | 20.0% | 41.7% | 27.7% | 38 |
| 2 |
|
Ian Happ | 60 | 🔵 C+ | · | ❄ COLD | 44 | 0.248 | 90.0 | 8.0% | 28.9% vs RHP | 403 | 23.0% | 16.7% | 24.5% | 33 |
| 3 |
|
Michael Busch | 44 | ⚪ D | · | · | 122 | 0.156 | 88.4 | 7.3% | 13.2% vs RHP | 400 | 10.5% | 16.7% | 12.2% | 35 |
| 4 |
|
Seiya Suzuki | 44 | ⚪ D | · | · | 123 | 0.179 | 89.4 | 6.4% | 25.0% vs RHP | 409 | 11.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 28 |
| 5 |
|
Dansby Swanson | 37 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 163 | 0.132 | 89.2 | 5.4% | 9.8% vs RHP | 396 | 11.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 25 |
| 6 |
|
Carson Kelly ⚡ | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 170 | 0.109 | 88.5 | 5.7% | 5.6% vs RHP | 421 | 6.2% | 20.0% | 11.3% | 19 |
| 7 |
|
Alex Bregman | 35 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 176 | 0.133 | 87.9 | 4.8% | 17.0% vs RHP | 395 | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 39 |
| 8 |
|
Nico Hoerner ⚡ | 24 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 219 | 0.094 | 85.8 | 2.3% | 4.8% vs RHP | 383 | 5.4% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 42 |