Slate · 2026-07-28

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2026-07-28

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🔥 High Conviction 2 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#1 James Wood vs Shane Bieber FIP 5.85 HR/FB 20.0% #3 Cj Abrams vs Shane Bieber FIP 5.85 HR/FB 20.0%

📦 STACK Shane Bieber FIP 5.85 HR/FB 20.0% → #1 James Wood, #3 Cj Abrams

📦 STACK Luis Castillo FIP 4.43 HR/FB 16.9% → #2 Max Muncy, #9 Shohei Ohtani

📦 STACK Gavin Williams FIP 3.7 HR/FB 19.6% → #4 Elly De La Cruz, #10 Sal Stewart, #15 Nathaniel Lowe

📦 STACK Slade Cecconi FIP 4.54 HR/FB 14.8% → #8 Elly De La Cruz, #12 Sal Stewart

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-07-28. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.6% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Due	BP	Weather	Hit?
1	·James Wood (L) ²	74	+0.2	Shane Bieber (RHP) TOR @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	30	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%14.9% Avg EV95.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.05 FIP3.83 IP865.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+54 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind12 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+54 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note82°F, wind 12 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
2	Max Muncy (L) ²	70	-10.3	Luis Castillo (RHP) SEA @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	5	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	SEA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.3% HR/90.99 FIP3.61 IP914.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+25 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind7 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+25 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)	Max Muncy — Home Run OffLuis Castillo Exit Velo109.9 mph Angle28.0° Distance430 ft StadiumDodger Stadium
3	·Elly De La Cruz (L) ⁷	68	·	Gavin Williams (RHP) CLE @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%12.8% Avg EV94.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.14 FIP3.94 IP937.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+30 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind6 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+30 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 6 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
4	·Ben Rice (L) ⁵	68	+3.4	Anthony Kay (LHP) NYY @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	31	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV92.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.08 FIP4.20 IP901.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
5	·Esmerlyn Valdez (R) ³	68	·	Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) AZ @ PIT · PNC Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	14	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%16.1% Avg EV93.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.25 FIP4.51 IP909.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+42 Weather · PNC Park warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind8 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+42 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 8 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
6	·Willson Contreras (R) ³	67	-12.1	Gage Jump (LHP) BOS @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.57 FIP5.02 IP941.8000000000001 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+61 Weather · Sutter Health Park hot air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind11 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier6 Spray/Wind+61 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note85°F, wind 11 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast)
7	·Elly De La Cruz (L) ⁷	67	·	Slade Cecconi (RHP) CLE @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	1:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV94.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.14 FIP3.94 IP937.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+28 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind6 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 6 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
8	Shohei Ohtani (L) ⁴	66	-17.7	Luis Castillo (RHP) SEA @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	23	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%12.3% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	SEA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.3% HR/90.99 FIP3.61 IP914.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+26 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind7 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+26 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)	Shohei Ohtani — Home Run OffLuis Castillo Exit Velo109.1 mph Angle27.0° Distance432 ft StadiumDodger Stadium
9	Sal Stewart (R) ⁵	65	·	Gavin Williams (RHP) CLE @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%12.3% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.14 FIP3.94 IP937.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+28 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind6 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 6 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)	Sal Stewart — Home Run OffSlade Cecconi Exit Velo101.2 mph Angle28.0° Distance416 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park
10	·Munetaka Murakami (L) ⁴	64	-0.0	Gerrit Cole (RHP) NYY @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%14.0% Avg EV94.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.7×	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.01 FIP3.77 IP919.6999999999999 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
11	Sal Stewart (R) ⁵	63	·	Slade Cecconi (RHP) CLE @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	1:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.14 FIP3.94 IP937.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+25 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind6 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+25 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 6 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)	Sal Stewart — Home Run OffSlade Cecconi Exit Velo101.2 mph Angle28.0° Distance416 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park
12	·Nick Kurtz (L) ²	63	-11.7	Jake Bennett (LHP) BOS @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	21	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls3 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	BOS Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/90.99 FIP3.74 IP911.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+54 Weather · Sutter Health Park hot air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind11 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier6 Spray/Wind+54 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note85°F, wind 11 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast)
13	·Nathaniel Lowe (L) ⁷	62	·	Gavin Williams (RHP) CLE @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	12	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV89.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.2×	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.14 FIP3.94 IP937.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+31 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind6 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 6 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
14	·Nathaniel Lowe (L) ⁷	62	·	Slade Cecconi (RHP) CLE @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	1:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	12	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV89.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.2×	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.14 FIP3.94 IP937.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+29 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind6 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 6 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
15	·Hunter Goodman (R)	62	-8.4	Michael King (RHP) COL @ SD · Petco Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	31	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%12.0% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.7×	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.15 FIP4.30 IP921.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+27 Weather · Petco Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind7 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+27 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
16	Dominic Canzone (L) ²	62	-3.6	Justin Wrobleski (LHP) SEA @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	18	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.20 FIP4.05 IP956.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+27 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind7 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+27 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)	Dominic Canzone — Home Run OffAlex Vesia Exit Velo107.5 mph Angle29.0° Distance414 ft StadiumDodger Stadium
17	·Junior Caminero (R) ⁴	62	·	Cal Quantrill (RHP) TEX @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	29	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV93.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5.0×	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.9% HR/91.26 FIP4.14 IP907.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
18	·Joc Pederson (L) ³	61	·	Griffin Jax (RHP) TEX @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.20 FIP4.09 IP897.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
19	·Cj Abrams (L) ⁴	60	-1.2	Shane Bieber (RHP) TOR @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	27	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.05 FIP3.83 IP865.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+54 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind12 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+54 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note82°F, wind 12 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
20	·Dalton Rushing (L) ²	60	-7.4	Luis Castillo (RHP) SEA @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	11	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls11 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV89.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	SEA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.3% HR/90.99 FIP3.61 IP914.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+26 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind7 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+26 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
21	·Matt Olson (L) ²	60	·	Christian Scott (RHP) ATL @ NYM · Citi Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	27	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.11 FIP4.08 IP968.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+41 Weather · Citi Field warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+41 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
22	·Ty France (R) ⁵	59	-2.8	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) COL @ SD · Petco Park	9:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	16	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.4% HR/91.47 FIP4.90 IP912.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+30 Weather · Petco Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind7 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+30 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
23	·Byron Buxton (R) ⁴	59	·	Seth Lugo (RHP) KC @ MIN · Target Field	7:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	25	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%12.8% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7.5×	KC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.0% HR/91.37 FIP4.82 IP918.0 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+6 Weather · Target Field hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind5 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+6 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note85°F, wind 5 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
24	Yordan Alvarez (L) ⁴	58	-16.5	Reid Detmers (LHP) HOU @ LAA · Angel Stadium	9:38p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	35	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%11.9% Avg EV94.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.5×	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.11 FIP4.37 IP926.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+39 Weather · Angel Stadium warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind9 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+39 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 9 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)	Yordan Alvarez — Home Run OffReid Detmers Exit Velo109.1 mph Angle29.0° Distance427 ft StadiumAngel Stadium
25	·Griffin Conine (L) ⁴	58	·	Aaron Nola (RHP) PHI @ MIA · loanDepot Park	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	8	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.25 FIP3.83 IP913.1 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+14 Weather · loanDepot Park hot air · strong partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp85°F Wind17 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+14 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note85°F, wind 17 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)
26	·Luke Raley (L)	58	·	Justin Wrobleski (LHP) SEA @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	15	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%11.0% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10.3×	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.20 FIP4.05 IP956.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+26 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind7 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+26 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
27	·Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) ⁴	58	+1.8	Michael McGreevy (RHP) CHC @ STL · Busch Stadium	7:45p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	23	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.00 FIP4.13 IP915.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-47 Weather · Busch Stadium hot air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86°F Wind10 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-47 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note86°F, wind 10 mph NE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast)
28	·Tyler Soderstrom (L) ²	58	-7.0	Jake Bennett (LHP) BOS @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%7.7% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	BOS Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/90.99 FIP3.74 IP911.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+51 Weather · Sutter Health Park hot air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind11 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier6 Spray/Wind+51 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note85°F, wind 11 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast)
29	·Wilyer Abreu (L) ²	58	-7.9	Gage Jump (LHP) BOS @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	15	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%9.1% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.3×	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.57 FIP5.02 IP941.8000000000001 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+54 Weather · Sutter Health Park hot air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind11 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier6 Spray/Wind+54 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note85°F, wind 11 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast)
30	·Dillon Dingler (R) ⁴	58	-5.7	Dean Kremer (RHP) BAL @ DET · Comerica Park	6:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV89.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.5×	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.07 FIP4.12 IP920.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+39 Weather · Comerica Park warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp74°F Wind11 mph N Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+39 · Green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 11 mph N (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

15.2%

▼ -4.6 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 17.7% prior 15d

Results · 2026-07-28

23 HRs

34%

8 caught / 23 HRs

in top 50

#2 Max Muncy

35.7%

🟡

#9 Shohei Ohtani

19.9%

🔵

#10 Sal Stewart

33.5%

🔵

#12 Sal Stewart

27.7%

🔵

#13 Yordan Álvarez

27.4%

🔵

#18 Dominic Canzone

25.7%

🔵

#23 Jj Bleday

20.1%

🔵

#24 JJ Bleday

18.8%

🔵

Missed

Kyle Stowers Dylan Crews Kyle Manzardo Kyle Manzardo Mickey Moniak +10 more

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.5%

B 19.9%

C+ 17.1%

C 13.4%

D 8.8%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Slate · 2026-07-28

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.