TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.82×

CHC @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:45p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 10 mph in 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

-8 ↑

6:45p

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7:45p

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8:45p

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9:45p

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10:45p

conditions hold steady across the window · -8 FIT

Best of game José Fermín conv 9 · vs Rea ⟷ Seiya Suzuki conv 26 · vs McGreevy → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Colin Rea RHP · CHC

leak 91

1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · leakiest side of this game

1 José Fermín — D ●○○○○

2 Jordan Walker +750 C ●○○○○

3 Jimmy Crooks +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 75

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Seiya Suzuki +850 C ●●●●○

2 Pete Crow-Armstrong +700 C ●●●●○

3 Alex Bregman — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 11.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs McGreevy +850 0.208 · 88.9 · 10.0% 30.0% 22.9% F B O C 52

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ COOL vs McGreevy Edge +700 0.255 · 90.0 · 10.5% 20.0% 26.2% F B O C 58

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs McGreevy Edge +750 0.242 · 91.9 · 11.1% 0.0% 23.6% F B O C 50

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs McGreevy Edge +625 0.203 · 89.3 · 10.8% 10.0% 12.8% F B O C 50

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Rea +750 0.224 · 93.5 · 11.8% 0.0% 16.7% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs McGreevy — 0.117 · 87.9 · 6.5% 22.2% 11.8% F B O D 36

· CHC Michael Busch vs McGreevy Edge +950 0.157 · 88.5 · 9.9% 20.0% 12.0% F B O D 45

· STL José Fermín HOT vs Rea — 0.118 · 85.9 · 5.0% 11.1% 7.6% F B O D 34

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs McGreevy — 0.090 · 86.1 · 2.8% 10.0% 6.6% F B O D 26

· STL Jimmy Crooks HOT vs Rea Edge +950 0.156 · 93.1 · 10.1% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 45

· CHC Dansby Swanson vs McGreevy — 0.193 · 89.7 · 8.7% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 44

· STL Alec Burleson vs Rea Edge +625 0.182 · 91.7 · 10.6% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 48

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Rea Edge +950 0.140 · 89.9 · 8.5% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 37

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Rea +850 0.138 · 89.1 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 36

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Rea Edge +850 0.133 · 86.0 · 8.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 39

· STL Masyn Winn vs Rea — 0.080 · 88.1 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 30

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs McGreevy +900 0.116 · 87.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 35

· STL Lars Nootbaar vs Rea Edge +750 0.127 · 92.3 · 9.9% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.5% ← leak BRK 26.3% OFF 20.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

10.1% 12.5% 12.5% 11.2% C 58 +700

Seiya Suzuki R

10.5% 9.2% 10.5% 10.0% C 52 +850

Michael Conforto L Edge

10.9% 18.8% 14.3% 12.9% C 50 +750

Ian Happ S Edge

14.3% 17.9% 1.6% 11.8% C 50 +625

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

110

Michael Busch L Edge

12.3% 4.8% 3.0% 9.6% D 45 +950

119

Dansby Swanson R

6.8% 7.2% 13.3% 7.7% D 44 —

192

Alex Bregman R

2.8% 6.7% 6.7% 4.2% D 36 —

205

Carson Kelly R

7.5% 3.3% 5.9% 6.1% D 35 +900

256

Nico Hoerner R

1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.5% usage) carries McGreevy's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.4% ← leak BRK 25.6% OFF 17.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

14.5% 12.4% 15.6% 13.9% C 55 +750

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.2% 11.0% 11.4% 11.2% D 48 +625

114

Jimmy Crooks L Edge

11.4% 12.5% 0.0% 10.2% D 45 +950

164

Nathan Church L Edge

8.7% 6.2% 6.0% 7.2% D 39 +850

166

Lars Nootbaar L Edge

10.2% 17.4% 0.0% 9.7% D 39 +750

183

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

10.2% 2.5% 2.2% 7.1% D 37 +950

188

Ivan Herrera R

4.9% 5.7% 7.1% 5.5% D 36 +850

215

José Fermín R

3.2% 2.7% 0.0% 2.5% D 34 —

242

Masyn Winn R

3.7% 2.2% 3.4% 3.2% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.4% usage) carries Rea's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Busch Bregman

Legend

attack side — vs Rea fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Seiya Suzuki +850 · 52

Pete Crow-Armstrong +700 · 58

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 10 mph in 86°F open

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6 mph · in

77°F

6:45p · peak

-8

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6 mph · in

77°F

7:45p

-8

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6 mph · in

77°F

8:45p

-8

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6 mph · in

77°F

9:45p

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6 mph · in

77°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.82× 86°F, wind 10 mph NE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 58 C +700 COOL 27 0.255 90.0 10.5% 24.7%vs RHP 392 19.8% 20.0% 26.2% 23

2 Seiya Suzuki 52 C +850 WARM 57 0.208 88.9 10.0% 23.5%vs RHP 407 16.5% 30.0% 22.9% 24

3 Michael Conforto 50 C +750 COOL 66 0.242 91.9 11.1% 16.7%vs RHP 399 8.8% 0.0% 23.6% 11

4 Ian Happ 50 C +625 COOL 70 0.203 89.3 10.8% 24.2%vs RHP 404 18.1% 10.0% 12.8% 22

5 Michael Busch 45 D +950 · 110 0.157 88.5 9.9% 15.3%vs RHP 403 13.1% 20.0% 12.0% 30

6 Dansby Swanson 44 D — · 119 0.193 89.7 8.7% 17.5%vs RHP 403 12.5% 0.0% 11.7% 30

7 Alex Bregman 36 D — · 192 0.117 87.9 6.5% 16.7%vs RHP 389 9.7% 22.2% 11.8% 27

8 Carson Kelly 35 D +900 COOL 205 0.116 87.9 7.8% 8.0%vs RHP 416 6.7% 0.0% 6.9% 20

9 Nico Hoerner 26 D — COOL 256 0.090 86.1 2.8% 5.3%vs RHP 383 4.8% 10.0% 6.6% 39

vs Colin Rea · RHP 1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 55 C +750 COOL 42 0.224 93.5 11.8% 32.1%vs RHP 406 18.1% 0.0% 16.7% 32

2 Alec Burleson 48 D +625 · 82 0.182 91.7 10.6% 20.6%vs RHP 407 14.9% 0.0% 10.5% 37

3 Jimmy Crooks 45 D +950 HOT 114 0.156 93.1 10.1% 13.3%vs RHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 12

4 Nathan Church 39 D +850 COOL 164 0.133 86.0 8.5% 20.0%vs RHP 388 8.7% 0.0% 7.6% 22

5 Lars Nootbaar 39 D +750 WARM 166 0.127 92.3 9.9% 8.0%vs RHP 438 2.6% 0.0% 6.3% 24

6 Jj Wetherholt 37 D +950 · 183 0.140 89.9 8.5% 17.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 35

7 Ivan Herrera 36 D +850 COOL 188 0.138 89.1 7.4% 17.5%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 31

8 José Fermín 34 D — HOT 215 0.118 85.9 5.0% 10.5%vs RHP 388 7.3% 11.1% 7.6% 23

9 Masyn Winn 30 D — · 242 0.080 88.1 5.7% 10.3%vs RHP 390 4.0% 0.0% 7.5% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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