TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.16×

ATL @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 8 mph out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

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7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

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11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -8 FIT

Best of game Drake Baldwin conv 32 · vs Scott ⟷ Marcus Semien conv 20 · vs Sale → edge: Drake Baldwin

ATTACK Christian Scott RHP · NYM

leak 88

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Drake Baldwin — C ●●●●●

2 Ozzie Albies — D ●●●●○

3 Matt Olson — C+ ●●●●○

FADE Chris Sale LHP · ATL

leak 35

0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Marcus Semien — D ●●●○○

2 Francisco Lindor — D ●●●○○

3 Brett Baty — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Drake Baldwin: 14.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Drake Baldwin ✶ vs Scott Edge — 0.207 · 91.7 · 10.3% 36.4% 26.7% F B O C 56

· ATL Matt Olson vs Scott Edge — 0.261 · 92.7 · 10.1% 18.2% 28.4% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Scott Edge — 0.174 · 86.8 · 5.7% 36.4% 18.4% F B O D 45

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Sale Edge — 0.136 · 86.6 · 6.8% 28.6% 11.8% F B O D 38

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Sale Edge — 0.155 · 91.6 · 7.6% 20.0% 15.8% F B O D 41

· NYM Brett Baty vs Sale — 0.106 · 89.5 · 7.2% 25.0% 9.5% F B O D 34

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Scott — 0.136 · 90.7 · 8.8% 18.2% 12.2% F B O D 42

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Scott Edge — 0.127 · 87.9 · 6.3% 20.0% 9.9% F B O D 37

· NYM Francisco Alvarez HOT vs Sale Edge — 0.189 · 90.3 · 9.8% 0.0% 19.5% F B O D 41

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Scott Edge — 0.128 · 90.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 36

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Sale — 0.149 · — · 6.2% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 30

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Sale — 0.131 · 89.1 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 34

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Sale Edge — 0.113 · 89.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 32

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Scott — 0.144 · 86.6 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 68.7% ← leak BRK 27.7% OFF 3.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Matt Olson L Edge

16.1% 11.1% 11.1% 14.0% C+ 60 —

Drake Baldwin L Edge

15.2% 19.7% 5.4% 14.8% C 56 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

106

Ozzie Albies S Edge

7.4% 1.0% 3.1% 4.5% D 45 —

133

Austin Riley R

12.8% 10.8% 2.9% 10.9% D 42 —

184

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.1% 6.2% 2.6% 5.5% D 37 —

190

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

6.9% 4.4% 7.1% 6.3% D 36 —

227

Mauricio Dubon R

3.3% 6.5% 5.4% 4.6% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (68.7% usage) carries Scott's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.0% ← leak BRK 39.3% OFF 11.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

139

Francisco Alvarez R Edge

15.7% 16.4% 16.7% 16.0% D 41 —

140

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.1% 4.5% 8.6% 9.6% D 41 —

172

Marcus Semien R Edge

10.6% 2.5% 8.3% 7.7% D 38 —

211

Brett Baty L

7.7% 13.3% 4.7% 8.3% D 34 —

212

Carson Benge L

7.0% 9.9% 6.2% 7.6% D 34 —

229

Bo Bichette R Edge

4.5% 11.9% 0.0% 6.4% D 32 —

241

A.J. Ewing L

8.1% 7.3% 0.0% 6.4% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.0% usage) carries Sale's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Baldwin Albies Riley Smith Lindor Semien Baty

Legend

attack side — vs Scott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Drake Baldwin — · 56

Ozzie Albies — · 45

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 8 mph out 76°F open

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8 mph · in

73°F

7:10p · peak

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8:10p

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9:10p

-8

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arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 76°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Christian Scott · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 60 C+ — · 21 0.261 92.7 10.1% 32.3%vs RHP 409 20.8% 18.2% 28.4% 27

2 Drake Baldwin ✶ 56 C — WARM 36 0.207 91.7 10.3% 30.9%vs RHP 403 20.0% 36.4% 26.7% 35

3 Ozzie Albies 45 D — COOL 106 0.174 86.8 5.7% 13.7%vs RHP 386 15.1% 36.4% 18.4% 37

4 Austin Riley 42 D — HOT 133 0.136 90.7 8.8% 17.5%vs RHP 405 8.6% 18.2% 12.2% 26

5 Dominic Smith 37 D — COOL 184 0.127 87.9 6.3% 14.3%vs RHP 390 7.7% 20.0% 9.9% 17

6 Mike Yastrzemski 36 D — COOL 190 0.128 90.2 6.6% 15.7%vs RHP 387 7.6% 0.0% 10.6% 7

7 Mauricio Dubon 32 D — COOL 227 0.144 86.6 5.7% 12.8%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 38

vs Chris Sale · LHP 0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Alvarez 41 D — HOT 139 0.189 90.3 9.8% 22.2%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 12

2 Francisco Lindor 41 D — WARM 140 0.155 91.6 7.6% 21.4%vs LHP 395 10.9% 20.0% 15.8% 30

3 Marcus Semien 38 D — WARM 172 0.136 86.6 6.8% 9.5%vs LHP 391 11.8% 28.6% 11.8% 20

4 Brett Baty 34 D — · 211 0.106 89.5 7.2% 0.0%vs LHP 395 6.1% 25.0% 9.5% 14

5 Carson Benge 34 D — COOL 212 0.131 89.1 6.8% 21.4%vs LHP 399 8.8% 0.0% 8.0% 21

6 Bo Bichette 32 D — COOL 229 0.113 89.4 6.2% 18.2%vs LHP 385 8.8% 0.0% 7.6% 32

7 A.J. Ewing 30 D — COOL 241 0.149 — 6.2% 18.2%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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