TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ SD

Neutral air · 1.04×

COL @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 7 mph out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

6:40p

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7:40p

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8:40p

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9:40p

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10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 27 · vs King ⟷ Ty France conv 34 · vs Lorenzen → edge: Ty France

ATTACK Michael King RHP · SD

leak 74

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman +320 C+ ●●●●○

2 Mickey Moniak +425 C ●●○○○

3 Cole Carrigg +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Michael Lorenzen RHP · COL

leak 50

1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ty France +475 C ●●●●●

2 Jackson Merrill +425 D ●●●●●

3 Manny Machado +330 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ty France: 11.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Ty France ✶ vs Lorenzen +475 0.260 · 92.5 · 10.3% 40.0% 27.1% F B O C 59

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs King +320 0.297 · 90.7 · 12.0% 25.0% 29.4% F B O C+ 62

· SD Manny Machado vs Lorenzen +330 0.228 · 90.4 · 9.9% 30.0% 23.8% F B O C 56

· COL Mickey Moniak COOL vs King Edge +425 0.276 · 89.6 · 9.6% 14.3% 13.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill HOT vs Lorenzen Edge +425 0.160 · 89.8 · 9.7% 44.4% 17.0% F B O D 48

· COL Cole Carrigg vs King Edge +700 0.232 · 86.8 · 7.0% 14.3% 12.6% F B O D 41

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Lorenzen Edge +425 0.183 · 87.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 42

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs King Edge +850 0.204 · 85.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 36

· COL Kyle Karros COOL vs King — 0.162 · 89.6 · 8.3% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 39

· COL Tj Rumfield vs King Edge +700 0.177 · 83.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 33

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Lorenzen Edge +525 0.079 · 88.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 31

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs King +850 0.122 · 87.3 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 33

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Lorenzen +700 0.103 · 88.1 · 7.4% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 33

· COL Edouard Julien COOL vs King Edge +950 0.084 · 91.2 · 7.7% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 30

· COL Troy Johnston vs King Edge +850 0.110 · 89.8 · 4.1% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.5% ← leak OFF 27.6% BRK 24.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R

20.0% 7.4% 15.9% 17.1% C+ 62 +320

Mickey Moniak L Edge

8.4% 2.6% 23.1% 10.4% C 51 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

143

Cole Carrigg S Edge

4.8% 10.0% 5.0% 5.8% D 41 +700

167

Kyle Karros R

8.0% 14.3% 5.0% 7.8% D 39 —

189

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.1% 9.7% 1.6% 5.4% D 36 +850

221

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.2% 6.2% 2.1% 4.9% D 33 +700

224

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.1% 4.5% 7.5% 6.5% D 33 +850

243

Edouard Julien L Edge

5.4% 6.2% 12.1% 7.0% D 30 +950

257

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.7% 0.0% 2.5% 2.0% D 26 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.5% usage) carries King's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.7% ← leak BRK 27.6% OFF 19.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ty France R

12.2% 12.7% 7.7% 11.8% C 59 +475

Manny Machado R

13.5% 7.1% 7.9% 10.9% C 56 +330

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

12.4% 10.1% 6.3% 10.4% D 48 +425

132

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.4% 4.4% 1.9% 6.8% D 42 +425

225

Xander Bogaerts R

7.9% 2.7% 4.0% 6.1% D 33 +700

234

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

5.6% 4.8% 4.5% 5.3% D 31 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.7% usage) carries Lorenzen's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Carrigg France Machado Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs King fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Ty France +475 · 59

Hunter Goodman +320 · 62

Manny Machado +330 · 56

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 7 mph out 76°F open

↑

4 mph · out

69°F

6:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

69°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · out

69°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · out

69°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · out

69°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 76°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael King · RHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 62 C+ +320 COOL 15 0.297 90.7 12.0% 42.1%vs RHP 411 24.7% 25.0% 29.4% 16

2 Mickey Moniak 51 C +425 COOL 64 0.276 89.6 9.6% 23.7%vs RHP 418 16.4% 14.3% 13.8% 22

3 Cole Carrigg 41 D +700 WARM 143 0.232 86.8 7.0% 20.0%vs RHP 404 8.3% 14.3% 12.6% 25

4 Kyle Karros 39 D — COOL 167 0.162 89.6 8.3% 23.5%vs RHP 417 10.8% 0.0% 9.7% 21

5 Jake Mccarthy 36 D +850 COOL 189 0.204 85.3 6.7% 17.0%vs RHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 30

6 Tj Rumfield 33 D +700 · 221 0.177 83.7 6.6% 17.4%vs RHP 410 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 24

7 Ezequiel Tovar 33 D +850 COOL 224 0.122 87.3 7.3% 16.4%vs RHP 410 7.5% 0.0% 7.2% 14

8 Edouard Julien 30 D +950 COOL 243 0.084 91.2 7.7% 12.9%vs RHP 400 3.8% 0.0% 6.5% 10

9 Troy Johnston 26 D +850 WARM 257 0.110 89.8 4.1% 7.5%vs RHP 415 1.3% 0.0% 5.9% 20

vs Michael Lorenzen · RHP 1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France ✶ 59 C +475 WARM 22 0.260 92.5 10.3% 37.1%vs RHP 394 20.0% 40.0% 27.1% 32

2 Manny Machado 56 C +330 WARM 37 0.228 90.4 9.9% 30.6%vs RHP 397 21.0% 30.0% 23.8% 34

3 Jackson Merrill 48 D +425 HOT 80 0.160 89.8 9.7% 18.2%vs RHP 409 14.3% 44.4% 17.0% 32

4 Gavin Sheets 42 D +425 COOL 132 0.183 87.7 7.8% 30.0%vs RHP 397 11.0% 0.0% 13.1% 25

5 Xander Bogaerts 33 D +700 COOL 225 0.103 88.1 7.4% 16.0%vs RHP 396 8.2% 0.0% 6.9% 28

6 Jake Cronenworth 31 D +525 COOL 234 0.079 88.1 6.9% 14.3%vs RHP 389 1.8% 0.0% 7.8% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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