TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.22×

MIL @ SF

Oracle Park · 9:45p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 12 mph out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:45p

-3 ↑

7:45p

-3 ↑

8:45p

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9:45p

-3 ↑

10:45p

conditions hold steady across the window · -3 FIT

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 27 · vs Henderson ⟷ Joey Ortiz conv 17 · vs Roupp → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 75

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +370 C ●●●●○

2 Willy Adames +525 D ●●●●○

3 Casey Schmitt — D ●●●○○

FADE Landen Roupp RHP · SF

leak 20

0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joey Ortiz — D ●●●○○

2 Brice Turang +850 D ●●○○○

3 Christian Yelich +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Henderson Edge +370 0.237 · 92.2 · 9.7% 30.0% 24.9% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Henderson +525 0.205 · 88.1 · 8.8% 30.0% 22.8% F B O D 47

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Henderson — 0.213 · 89.9 · 10.1% 20.0% 20.9% F B O D 49

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Henderson Edge +475 0.200 · 92.4 · 10.3% 20.0% 20.0% F B O D 47

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Roupp — 0.122 · 88.1 · 4.3% 22.2% 11.8% F B O D 30

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Roupp Edge +850 0.195 · 90.7 · 6.3% 11.1% 11.1% F B O D 39

· SF Heliot Ramos COOL vs Henderson +575 0.176 · 92.3 · 11.1% 10.0% 11.3% F B O D 43

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Roupp Edge +850 0.154 · 89.1 · 6.6% 12.5% 7.6% F B O D 34

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Henderson Edge — 0.133 · 87.0 · 4.6% 11.1% 6.7% F B O D 28

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.223 · 92.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 44

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Roupp +625 0.195 · 92.1 · 7.8% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 40

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Roupp Edge +750 0.174 · 92.7 · 8.1% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 37

· MIL William Contreras vs Roupp +750 0.120 · 90.1 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 30

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Roupp Edge +900 0.090 · 86.8 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 25

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Henderson Edge — 0.120 · 85.9 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 27

· SF Luis Arraez COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.124 · 86.9 · 2.0% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.8% ← leak BRK 25.8% OFF 20.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

123

Jake Bauers L Edge

13.9% 12.1% 13.8% 13.4% D 44 —

158

Jackson Chourio R

12.8% 15.4% 3.6% 12.4% D 40 +625

168

Brice Turang L Edge

10.7% 8.6% 2.0% 8.6% D 39 +850

187

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

16.2% 12.1% 9.1% 14.1% D 37 +750

220

Christian Yelich L Edge

7.4% 11.8% 15.0% 9.3% D 34 +850

244

Joey Ortiz R

3.3% 6.3% 0.0% 4.1% D 30 —

246

William Contreras R

8.1% 8.4% 0.0% 7.4% D 30 +750

260

David Hamilton L Edge

3.6% 5.9% 0.0% 3.7% D 25 +900

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.8% usage) carries Roupp's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.4% ← leak OFF 33.0% BRK 3.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L Edge

13.5% 9.1% 8.2% 11.3% C 52 +370

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Casey Schmitt R

9.2% 16.7% 17.6% 12.3% D 49 —

Willy Adames R

8.6% 12.0% 9.9% 9.2% D 47 +525

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

13.5% 18.5% 6.2% 12.9% D 47 +475

131

Heliot Ramos R

13.0% 17.4% 17.7% 15.1% D 43 +575

252

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.7% 0.0% 2.9% 2.5% D 28 —

255

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.8% 0.0% 4.9% 2.8% D 27 —

262

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.4% usage) carries Henderson's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ortiz Devers Schmitt Adames Eldridge

Legend

attack side — vs Henderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Rafael Devers +370 · 52

Willy Adames +525 · 47

Casey Schmitt — · 49

Bryce Eldridge +475 · 47

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 12 mph out 71°F open

-3

↑

7 mph · slight_out

58°F

6:45p · peak

-3

↑

7 mph · slight_out

58°F

7:45p

-3

↑

7 mph · slight_out

58°F

8:45p

-3

↑

7 mph · slight_out

58°F

9:45p

-3

↑

7 mph · slight_out

58°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.22× 71°F, wind 12 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Landen Roupp · RHP 0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 44 D — COOL 123 0.223 92.6 7.8% 34.6%vs RHP 401 19.5% 0.0% 13.6% 18

2 Jackson Chourio 40 D +625 COOL 158 0.195 92.1 7.8% 17.2%vs RHP 402 15.2% 0.0% 11.1% 28

3 Brice Turang 39 D +850 COOL 168 0.195 90.7 6.3% 27.3%vs RHP 408 11.8% 11.1% 11.1% 24

4 Garrett Mitchell 37 D +750 COOL 187 0.174 92.7 8.1% 25.8%vs RHP 415 8.3% 0.0% 9.7% 22

5 Christian Yelich 34 D +850 WARM 220 0.154 89.1 6.6% 15.2%vs RHP 404 7.4% 12.5% 7.6% 27

6 Joey Ortiz 30 D — WARM 244 0.122 88.1 4.3% 12.5%vs RHP 395 5.8% 22.2% 11.8% 21

7 William Contreras 30 D +750 WARM 246 0.120 90.1 5.9% 18.0%vs RHP 419 9.4% 0.0% 7.5% 28

8 David Hamilton 25 D +900 COOL 260 0.090 86.8 4.1% 6.8%vs RHP 383 4.3% 0.0% 7.1% 4

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 52 C +370 · 59 0.237 92.2 9.7% 26.5%vs RHP 399 18.5% 30.0% 24.9% 26

2 Casey Schmitt 49 D — · 77 0.213 89.9 10.1% 21.0%vs RHP 396 17.8% 20.0% 20.9% 27

3 Willy Adames 47 D +525 COOL 95 0.205 88.1 8.8% 21.4%vs RHP 388 15.7% 30.0% 22.8% 21

4 Bryce Eldridge 47 D +475 · 96 0.200 92.4 10.3% 22.2%vs RHP 399 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20

5 Heliot Ramos 43 D +575 COOL 131 0.176 92.3 11.1% 19.4%vs RHP 407 11.6% 10.0% 11.3% 27

6 Jung Hoo Lee 28 D — WARM 252 0.133 87.0 4.6% 9.6%vs RHP 375 5.3% 11.1% 6.7% 26

7 Drew Gilbert 27 D — HOT 255 0.120 85.9 4.8% 12.9%vs RHP 398 3.4% 0.0% 6.9% 24

8 Luis Arraez 21 D — COOL 262 0.124 86.9 2.0% 3.2%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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