TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ CWS

Suppressed air · 0.93×

NYY @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 21 · vs Cole ⟷ Ben Rice conv 26 · vs Kay → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 88

1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +525 C+ ●●●○○

2 Colson Montgomery +625 C ●●○○○

3 Miguel Vargas +625 C ●●○○○

FADE Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 56

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +625 C+ ●●●●○

2 Paul Goldschmidt +850 C ●●○○○

3 Trent Grisham +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Kay +625 0.311 · 92.1 · 11.5% 25.0% 27.7% F B O C+ 68

· CWS Munetaka Murakami vs Cole Edge +525 0.304 · 94.2 · 14.0% 10.0% 32.9% F B O C+ 64

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Kay Edge +850 0.225 · 86.4 · 9.8% 11.1% 17.7% F B O C 53

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Cole Edge +625 0.242 · 89.1 · 11.2% 11.1% 17.0% F B O C 56

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Cole +625 0.242 · 90.7 · 12.0% 10.0% 14.7% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Kay +750 0.174 · 90.9 · 9.3% 18.2% 9.3% F B O D 48

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Kay +850 0.111 · 88.9 · 7.6% 12.5% 12.1% F B O D 40

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Cole Edge +950 0.133 · 87.6 · 8.0% 11.1% 8.2% F B O D 38

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Cole — 0.113 · 88.0 · 6.4% 11.1% 7.9% F B O D 34

· NYY Amed Rosario COOL vs Kay Edge +1000 0.205 · 90.2 · 9.5% 0.0% 16.8% F B O D 48

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Cole Edge +850 0.175 · 88.8 · 9.3% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 43

· NYY Max Schuemann vs Kay Edge — 0.180 · 89.4 · 9.7% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 44

· NYY Jasson Dominguez vs Kay Edge +950 0.164 · 88.0 · 6.6% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 38

· CWS Drew Romo COOL vs Cole Edge +950 0.166 · 83.4 · 8.1% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 38

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Cole Edge — 0.153 · 89.2 · 5.9% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 36

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Cole Edge +950 0.161 · 87.5 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

· NYY Anthony Volpe vs Kay Edge — 0.086 · 88.1 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.5% ← leak BRK 27.0% OFF 14.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ben Rice L

18.9% 12.0% 12.5% 15.7% C+ 68 +625

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

15.5% 4.9% 10.3% 11.5% C 53 +850

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Amed Rosario R Edge

9.2% 11.5% 10.7% 10.1% D 48 +1000

Trent Grisham L

11.8% 9.3% 5.6% 10.4% D 48 +750

121

Max Schuemann R Edge

20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% D 44 —

153

Austin Wells L

8.8% 6.9% 0.0% 7.0% D 40 +850

170

Jasson Dominguez S Edge

4.9% 5.0% 5.9% 5.1% D 38 +950

223

Anthony Volpe R Edge

5.1% 0.0% 7.1% 3.5% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.5% usage) carries Kay's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.0% ← leak BRK 32.8% OFF 15.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

22.4% 18.2% 16.7% 20.1% C+ 64 +525

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.8% 12.3% 14.7% 12.9% C 56 +625

Miguel Vargas R

16.3% 12.6% 12.9% 14.8% C 56 +625

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

128

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.4% 5.3% 6.0% 9.0% D 43 +850

174

Drew Romo S Edge

13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% D 38 +950

175

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.4% 5.6% 0.0% 5.2% D 38 +950

179

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.3% 5.8% 0.0% 6.5% D 38 +950

193

Braden Montgomery S Edge

3.3% 5.3% 3.2% 3.6% D 36 —

213

Chase Meidroth R

3.7% 6.8% 2.1% 4.3% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.0% usage) carries Cole's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Murakami Montgomery

Legend

attack side — vs Cole fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Ben Rice +625 · 68

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 0.93× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.93× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 68 C+ +625 · 4 0.311 92.1 11.5% 45.0%vs LHP 390 27.3% 25.0% 27.7% 27

2 Paul Goldschmidt 53 C +850 · 55 0.225 86.4 9.8% 34.6%vs LHP 390 17.5% 11.1% 17.7% 21

3 Amed Rosario 48 D +1000 COOL 81 0.205 90.2 9.5% 17.4%vs LHP 392 10.3% 0.0% 16.8% 6

4 Trent Grisham 48 D +750 · 84 0.174 90.9 9.3% 11.8%vs LHP 390 11.2% 18.2% 9.3% 30

5 Max Schuemann 44 D — WARM 121 0.180 89.4 9.7% 11.1%vs LHP 415 11.8% 0.0% 10.8% 8

6 Austin Wells 40 D +850 COOL 153 0.111 88.9 7.6% 13.3%vs LHP 386 10.0% 12.5% 12.1% 10

7 Jasson Dominguez 38 D +950 · 170 0.164 88.0 6.6% 14.3%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 32

8 Anthony Volpe 33 D — WARM 223 0.086 88.1 5.4% 10.0%vs LHP 409 2.0% 0.0% 7.8% 13

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 64 C+ +525 · 10 0.304 94.2 14.0% 39.1%vs RHP 407 15.7% 10.0% 32.9% 24

2 Colson Montgomery 56 C +625 COOL 38 0.242 89.1 11.2% 25.4%vs RHP 398 24.1% 11.1% 17.0% 21

3 Miguel Vargas 56 C +625 · 39 0.242 90.7 12.0% 15.7%vs RHP 389 20.5% 10.0% 14.7% 31

4 Andrew Benintendi 43 D +850 COOL 128 0.175 88.8 9.3% 16.7%vs RHP 389 13.0% 0.0% 11.1% 19

5 Drew Romo 38 D +950 COOL 174 0.166 83.4 8.1% 14.8%vs RHP 368 3.7% 0.0% 10.3% 13

6 Tristan Peters 38 D +950 WARM 175 0.161 87.5 7.1% 10.0%vs RHP 377 8.0% 0.0% 9.3% 27

7 Sam Antonacci 38 D +950 COOL 179 0.133 87.6 8.0% 14.6%vs RHP 397 10.0% 11.1% 8.2% 29

8 Braden Montgomery 36 D — · 193 0.153 89.2 5.9% 20.0%vs RHP 371 5.3% 0.0% 10.1% 30

9 Chase Meidroth 34 D — · 213 0.113 88.0 6.4% 15.0%vs RHP 377 6.8% 11.1% 7.9% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.