TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.93×

BOS @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 11 mph out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:40p

+9 ↑

7:40p

+9 ↑

8:40p

+9 ↑

9:40p

+9 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +9 FIT

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 27 · vs Jump ⟷ Tyler Soderstrom conv 27 · vs Bennett → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Gage Jump LHP · ATH

leak 76

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras +245 C+ ●●●●○

2 Ceddanne Rafaela +525 C ●●●●○

3 Wilyer Abreu +350 C ●●●●○

FADE Jake Bennett LHP · BOS

leak 3

0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.67 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Soderstrom +370 C ●●●●○

2 Nick Kurtz +265 C+ ●●●●○

3 Jacob Wilson +700 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Bennett +370 0.221 · 90.2 · 7.7% 30.0% 24.9% F B O C 58

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ vs Jump Edge +245 0.258 · 90.6 · 9.8% 18.2% 35.5% F B O C+ 67

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Jump Edge +525 0.159 · 86.5 · 5.7% 33.3% 19.4% F B O C 50

· ATH Nick Kurtz vs Bennett +265 0.234 · 93.5 · 10.7% 33.3% 18.5% F B O C+ 63

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Jump +350 0.186 · 89.8 · 9.1% 25.0% 24.2% F B O C 58

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Jump Edge +525 0.189 · 88.6 · 7.6% 0.0% 15.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Bennett Edge +700 0.125 · 83.8 · 3.9% 30.0% 12.9% F B O D 41

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Jump — 0.122 · 88.7 · 4.2% 20.0% 8.9% F B O D 43

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Bennett — 0.156 · 90.0 · 6.7% 14.3% 10.8% F B O D 45

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Jump Edge +700 0.155 · 84.0 · 4.1% 8.3% 11.9% F B O D 43

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Bennett Edge +525 0.081 · 89.8 · 6.3% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 39

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Jump +500 0.145 · 89.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 48

· BOS Carlos Narvaez vs Jump Edge +525 0.092 · 91.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 40

· ATH Lawrence Butler COOL vs Bennett — 0.098 · 88.9 · 6.0% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 37

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Bennett — 0.087 · 86.2 · 2.7% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.9% ← leak BRK 42.3% OFF 7.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Willson Contreras R Edge

11.9% 15.4% 22.6% 14.0% C+ 67 +245

Wilyer Abreu L

12.7% 12.7% 11.9% 12.5% C 58 +350

Andruw Monasterio R Edge

7.8% 8.3% 16.7% 8.8% C 51 +525

Ceddanne Rafaela R Edge

4.0% 5.7% 7.5% 5.0% C 50 +525

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jarren Duran L

13.2% 7.4% 7.0% 10.3% D 48 +500

126

Caleb Durbin R Edge

2.7% 1.6% 3.6% 2.6% D 43 +700

129

Masataka Yoshida L

3.5% 0.0% 2.7% 2.8% D 43 —

151

Carlos Narvaez R Edge

7.8% 8.8% 0.0% 7.2% D 40 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.9% usage) carries Jump's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.1% ← leak OFF 25.5% BRK 10.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Nick Kurtz L

17.0% 17.9% 21.4% 18.4% C+ 63 +265

Tyler Soderstrom L

9.2% 0.0% 16.9% 9.7% C 58 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

112

Carlos Cortes L

7.9% 8.9% 4.5% 7.4% D 45 —

142

Jacob Wilson R Edge

4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 41 +700

160

Henry Bolte R Edge

6.2% 5.6% 7.7% 6.5% D 39 +525

186

Lawrence Butler L

5.9% 2.1% 8.6% 5.5% D 37 —

228

Jeff Mcneil L

0.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.2% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.1% usage) carries Bennett's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Abreu Rafaela Yoshida Kurtz Soderstrom Wilson

Legend

attack side — vs Jump fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Tyler Soderstrom +370 · 58

Ceddanne Rafaela +525 · 50

Nick Kurtz +265 · 63

Wilyer Abreu +350 · 58

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 11 mph out 85°F open

↑

4 mph · out

65°F

6:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

65°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · out

65°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · out

65°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · out

65°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.93× 85°F, wind 11 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gage Jump · LHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 67 C+ +245 · 6 0.258 90.6 9.8% 25.9%vs LHP 406 20.6% 18.2% 35.5% 19

2 Wilyer Abreu 58 C +350 COOL 29 0.186 89.8 9.1% 16.1%vs LHP 405 13.7% 25.0% 24.2% 30

3 Andruw Monasterio 51 C +525 COOL 62 0.189 88.6 7.6% 19.1%vs LHP 383 16.7% 0.0% 15.0% 18

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 50 C +525 WARM 67 0.159 86.5 5.7% 16.0%vs LHP 374 11.9% 33.3% 19.4% 38

5 Jarren Duran 48 D +500 COOL 83 0.145 89.5 8.2% 7.1%vs LHP 398 12.2% 0.0% 9.8% 32

6 Caleb Durbin 43 D +700 COOL 126 0.155 84.0 4.1% 16.7%vs LHP 373 9.2% 8.3% 11.9% 33

7 Masataka Yoshida 43 D — WARM 129 0.122 88.7 4.2% 7.7% 367 10.9% 20.0% 8.9% 29

8 Carlos Narvaez 40 D +525 WARM 151 0.092 91.4 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 7

vs Jake Bennett · LHP 0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.67 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nick Kurtz 63 C+ +265 WARM 12 0.234 93.5 10.7% 25.0%vs LHP 412 21.1% 33.3% 18.5% 3

2 Tyler Soderstrom 58 C +370 · 28 0.221 90.2 7.7% 30.4%vs LHP 402 16.5% 30.0% 24.9% 30

3 Carlos Cortes 45 D — COOL 112 0.156 90.0 6.7% 13.5% 403 5.5% 14.3% 10.8% 16

4 Jacob Wilson 41 D +700 WARM 142 0.125 83.8 3.9% 8.7%vs LHP 386 7.8% 30.0% 12.9% 39

5 Henry Bolte 39 D +525 COOL 160 0.081 89.8 6.3% 37.5%vs LHP 422 8.0% 0.0% 11.6% 18

6 Lawrence Butler 37 D — COOL 186 0.098 88.9 6.0% 0.0%vs LHP 402 3.5% 0.0% 5.7% 19

7 Jeff Mcneil 32 D — WARM 228 0.087 86.2 2.7% 0.0%vs LHP 377 3.6% 0.0% 5.7% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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