TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ TB

Suppressed air · 0.96×

TEX @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 38 · vs Jax ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 18 · vs Quantrill → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Griffin Jax RHP · TB

leak 95

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.87 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●●

2 Wyatt Langford — C ●●●●○

3 Jake Burger — C ●●●●○

FADE Cal Quantrill RHP · TEX

leak 47

1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●○○

2 Cedric Mullins — D ●●○○○

3 Jonathan Aranda — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 42.9% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Jax Edge — 0.239 · 91.9 · 10.6% 42.9% 32.5% F B O C+ 61

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Jax — 0.238 · 89.3 · 9.4% 30.0% 27.4% F B O C 56

· TEX Jake Burger vs Jax — 0.186 · 90.0 · 10.4% 33.3% 22.7% F B O C 54

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Quantrill — 0.257 · 93.0 · 10.8% 18.2% 18.0% F B O C+ 62

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Jax — 0.175 · 88.7 · 8.1% 20.0% 18.2% F B O D 47

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.149 · 88.0 · 7.7% 14.3% 10.1% F B O D 41

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Quantrill Edge — 0.147 · 88.0 · 6.0% 12.5% 9.5% F B O D 41

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.161 · 92.3 · 10.8% 10.0% 10.5% F B O D 47

· TEX Austin Wynns COOL vs Jax — 0.000 · 86.1 · 6.8% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 33

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Quantrill Edge — 0.155 · 91.1 · 9.5% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 46

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Quantrill — 0.158 · 90.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 40

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Quantrill Edge — 0.109 · 85.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 35

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.042 · 85.1 · — 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 20

· TB Hunter Feduccia COOL vs Quantrill Edge — 0.105 · 90.3 · 8.6% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 39

· TEX Josh Smith COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.062 · 86.7 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 32

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Quantrill Edge — 0.063 · 83.7 · — 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 20

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Quantrill Edge — 0.073 · 85.3 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.3% ← leak BRK 34.7% OFF 22.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.2% 11.9% 4.3% 11.4% C+ 61 —

Wyatt Langford R

5.7% 12.8% 17.6% 8.9% C 56 —

Jake Burger R

9.9% 12.8% 10.3% 10.9% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Duran R

8.2% 7.0% 0.0% 6.7% D 47 —

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

9.8% 17.5% 10.0% 11.9% D 47 —

146

Evan Carter L Edge

8.0% 5.1% 0.0% 6.0% D 41 —

222

Austin Wynns R

8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% D 33 —

231

Josh Smith L Edge

8.5% 5.3% 0.0% 5.7% D 32 —

264

Nicky Lopez L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.3% usage) carries Jax's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 75.7% ← leak OFF 19.4% BRK 4.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.6% 6.7% 10.7% 13.1% C+ 62 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

103

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.9% 5.6% 13.3% 10.4% D 46 —

147

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.2% 9.1% 3.8% 4.2% D 41 —

150

Yandy Diaz R

5.0% 5.0% 10.9% 7.0% D 40 —

165

Hunter Feduccia L Edge

14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% D 39 —

198

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.0% 3.7% 2.1% 4.0% D 35 —

249

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% D 29 —

265

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (75.7% usage) carries Quantrill's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Langford Burger Duran Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Jax fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Joc Pederson — · 61

Wyatt Langford — · 56

Jake Burger — · 54

Ezequiel Duran — · 47

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 0.96× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.96× Dome — weather irrelevant — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Griffin Jax · RHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.87 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 61 C+ — · 18 0.239 91.9 10.6% 31.1%vs RHP 394 21.9% 42.9% 32.5% 23

2 Wyatt Langford 56 C — · 35 0.238 89.3 9.4% 21.6%vs RHP 401 18.2% 30.0% 27.4% 32

3 Jake Burger 54 C — WARM 49 0.186 90.0 10.4% 26.8%vs RHP 398 16.8% 33.3% 22.7% 24

4 Ezequiel Duran 47 D — WARM 89 0.175 88.7 8.1% 23.3%vs RHP 392 14.3% 20.0% 18.2% 27

5 Brandon Nimmo 47 D — COOL 93 0.161 92.3 10.8% 12.7%vs RHP 404 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 27

6 Evan Carter 41 D — COOL 146 0.149 88.0 7.7% 15.1%vs RHP 374 9.7% 14.3% 10.1% 20

7 Austin Wynns 33 D — COOL 222 0.000 86.1 6.8% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 3

8 Josh Smith 32 D — COOL 231 0.062 86.7 7.5% 2.9%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 8

9 Nicky Lopez 20 D — COOL 264 0.042 85.1 — 6.2%vs RHP 397 2.4% 0.0% 7.7% 28

vs Cal Quantrill · RHP 1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 62 C+ — COOL 17 0.257 93.0 10.8% 40.0%vs RHP 408 26.5% 18.2% 18.0% 39

2 Jonathan Aranda 46 D — · 103 0.155 91.1 9.5% 18.4%vs RHP 387 12.2% 0.0% 9.8% 23

3 Cedric Mullins 41 D — COOL 147 0.147 88.0 6.0% 20.3%vs RHP 393 13.4% 12.5% 9.5% 22

4 Yandy Diaz 40 D — COOL 150 0.158 90.7 7.8% 22.5%vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 38

5 Hunter Feduccia 39 D — COOL 165 0.105 90.3 8.6% 8.7%vs RHP 409 5.4% 0.0% 7.2% 12

6 Richie Palacios 35 D — COOL 198 0.109 85.8 5.9% 12.1%vs RHP 394 3.7% 0.0% 9.1% 17

7 Taylor Walls 29 D — COOL 249 0.073 85.3 4.9% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 16

8 Chandler Simpson 20 D — COOL 265 0.063 83.7 — 3.3%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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