Today · 2026-06-28

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🔥 High Conviction 2 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#8 Nick Kurtz vs Sam Aldegheri FIP 5.51 HR/FB 33.3% #15 Samuel Basallo vs Zack Littell FIP 6.61 HR/FB 28.1%

📦 STACK Cionel Pérez FIP 4.67 HR/FB 30.0% → #1 Kyle Schwarber, #12 Bryce Harper

📦 STACK Zack Littell FIP 6.61 HR/FB 14.3% → #4 Pete Alonso, #15 Samuel Basallo

📦 STACK Kyle Bradish FIP 4.1 HR/FB 23.5% → #5 Curtis Mead, #7 James Wood, #14 Cj Abrams

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-06-27. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

91.4% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Kyle Schwarber (L) ²	83	-6.7	●	Cionel Pérez (LHP) PHI @ NYM · Citi Field	1:40p	🟢 A	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	29	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%15.8% Avg EV93.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-21 OffDavid Peterson Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle35.0° Distance418 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○○	1.7×	·	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.03 FIP3.95 IP710.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-16 Weather · Citi Field mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69.4°F Wind3.3 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-16 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 29 HR Note69°F, wind 3 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0
2	Byron Buxton (R) ³	83	-10.1	●	Ryan Feltner (RHP) COL @ MIN · Target Field	1:10p	🟢 A	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	25	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%13.1% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-06-22 OffWill Klein Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle35.0° Distance394 ft StadiumTarget Field	●○○○○	2.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.38 FIP4.83 IP728.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-77 Weather · Target Field mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.2°F Wind7 mph ENE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-77 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note70°F, wind 7 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0
3	Hunter Goodman (R) ⁵	79	-3.9	●	Connor Prielipp (LHP) COL @ MIN · Target Field	1:10p	🟡 B	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	25	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%12.5% Avg EV91.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffKody Funderburk Exit Velo113.3 mph Angle22.0° Distance401 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○●●	0.0×	·	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.8% HR/91.07 FIP4.25 IP737.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-76 Weather · Target Field mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.2°F Wind7 mph ENE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-76 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note70°F, wind 7 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0
4	Junior Caminero (R) ⁴	75	-11.0	●	Merrill Kelly (RHP) AZ @ TB · Tropicana Field	1:40p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	21	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%13.8% Avg EV93.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffJose Cabrera Exit Velo106.9 mph Angle44.0° Distance361 ft StadiumTropicana Field	●○●●●	0.0×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.29 FIP4.57 IP719.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
5	Bryce Harper (L) ²	75	-2.0	●	Cionel Pérez (LHP) PHI @ NYM · Citi Field	1:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffChristian Scott Exit Velo104.6 mph Angle31.0° Distance378 ft StadiumCiti Field	○○●○●	0.0×	·	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.03 FIP3.95 IP710.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-2 Weather · Citi Field mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69.4°F Wind3.3 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-2 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note69°F, wind 3 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0
6	Pete Alonso (R) ⁴	74	-7.9	●	Zack Littell (RHP) WSH @ BAL · Camden Yards	1:35p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV94.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-21 OffJonathan Hernández Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle34.0° Distance398 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	○○○○○	1.2×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.45 FIP4.81 IP784.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-19 Weather · Camden Yards mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.7°F Wind5.0 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-19 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note72°F, wind 5 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +0
7	Curtis Mead (R) ²	74	·	●	Kyle Bradish (RHP) WSH @ BAL · Camden Yards	1:35p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	14	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV88.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-06-25 OffCristopher Sánchez Exit Velo107.5 mph Angle23.0° Distance409 ft StadiumNationals Park	●○●●○	0.2×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/91.06 FIP4.11 IP737.9 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-19 Weather · Camden Yards mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.7°F Wind5.0 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-19 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR Note72°F, wind 5 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +0
8	James Wood (L) ³	74	-7.9	●	Kyle Bradish (RHP) WSH @ BAL · Camden Yards	1:35p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%14.2% Avg EV95.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	14d Last HR · 2026-06-14 OffEmerson Hancock Exit Velo109.4 mph Angle35.0° Distance413 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○○○	4.0×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/91.06 FIP4.11 IP737.9 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-19 Weather · Camden Yards mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.7°F Wind5.0 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-19 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note72°F, wind 5 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +0
9	Nick Kurtz (L) ³	73	·	●	Sam Aldegheri (LHP) ATH @ LAA · Angel Stadium	12:15p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	19	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%12.5% Avg EV94.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-21 OffBrent Suter Exit Velo109.2 mph Angle27.0° Distance437 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○○○	2.5×	·	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.09 FIP4.44 IP752.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-69 Weather · Angel Stadium cool air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.8°F Wind6.0 mph W Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-69 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note64°F, wind 6 mph W (cross) — modifier: +0
10	Kazuma Okamoto (R) ³	72	-6.2	●	Kumar Rocker (RHP) TEX @ TOR · Rogers Centre	1:37p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-06-26 OffJakob Junis Exit Velo99.9 mph Angle35.0° Distance378 ft StadiumRogers Centre	○○●●○	0.5×	·	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.9% HR/91.22 FIP4.17 IP743.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
11	Joc Pederson (L)	72	-3.3	●	TOR Bullpen Proxy TEX @ TOR · Rogers Centre	1:37p	🟡 B	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	12	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-06-25 OffKevin Gausman Exit Velo107.2 mph Angle28.0° Distance402 ft StadiumRogers Centre	○●●●○	0.5×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.13 FIP4.05 IP739.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
12	Corey Seager (L)	72	-5.1	●	TOR Bullpen Proxy TEX @ TOR · Rogers Centre	1:37p	🟡 B	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	10	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls3 BBE Barrel%14.8% Avg EV90.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffBraydon Fisher Exit Velo98.5 mph Angle29.0° Distance391 ft StadiumRogers Centre	○○●○●	0.0×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.13 FIP4.05 IP739.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 9 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
13	Ben Rice (L) ²	71	-5.4	●	Sonny Gray (RHP) NYY @ BOS · Fenway Park	7:20p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV91.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-21 OffChase Burns Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle41.0° Distance375 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○○○○○	2.5×	2	BOS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.16 FIP4.07 IP720.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-3 Weather · Fenway Park cool air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.6°F Wind1.0 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-3 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note64°F, wind 1 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0
14	Zach Neto (R) ⁴	69	·	●	Aaron Civale (RHP) ATH @ LAA · Angel Stadium	12:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	17	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-21 OffElvis Alvarado Exit Velo94.4 mph Angle33.0° Distance391 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	●○○○○	1.0×	·	ATH Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.47 FIP4.82 IP765.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-83 Weather · Angel Stadium cool air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.8°F Wind6.0 mph W Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-83 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note64°F, wind 6 mph W (cross) — modifier: +0
15	Samuel Basallo (L) ⁴	69	-8.5	●	Zack Littell (RHP) WSH @ BAL · Camden Yards	1:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	12	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffJosé Soriano Exit Velo112.5 mph Angle22.0° Distance373 ft StadiumAngel Stadium	○○○●○	0.1×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.45 FIP4.81 IP784.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-19 Weather · Camden Yards mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.7°F Wind5.0 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-19 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 12 HR Note72°F, wind 5 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +0
16	Dominic Canzone (L) ⁴	68	-4.5	●	Gavin Williams (RHP) SEA @ CLE · Progressive Field	1:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	12	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%13.8% Avg EV93.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-21 OffPayton Tolle Exit Velo100.4 mph Angle28.0° Distance348 ft StadiumT-Mobile Park	○●○○○	0.8×	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.20 FIP4.00 IP747.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+46 Weather · Progressive Field cool air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.0°F Wind3.1 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+46 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note65°F, wind 3 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0
17	Kody Clemens (L) ⁵	68	-3.1	●	Ryan Feltner (RHP) COL @ MIN · Target Field	1:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	12	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-06-26 OffTomoyuki Sugano Exit Velo102.5 mph Angle28.0° Distance380 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○●○	0.2×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.38 FIP4.83 IP728.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-64 Weather · Target Field mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.2°F Wind7 mph ENE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-64 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note70°F, wind 7 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0
18	Jac Caglianone (L) ³	67	-7.6	●	Anthony Kay (LHP) KC @ CWS · Rate Field	2:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	14	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%13.0% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-06-23 OffShane McClanahan Exit Velo110.0 mph Angle22.0° Distance416 ft StadiumTropicana Field	●○○○○	0.8×	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.5% HR/91.13 FIP4.39 IP719.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR NoteUnknown stadium
19	Shohei Ohtani (L)	67	-13.3	●	Michael King (RHP) LAD @ SD · Petco Park	1:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%12.7% Avg EV93.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-06-22 OffZebby Matthews Exit Velo112.8 mph Angle25.0° Distance414 ft StadiumTarget Field	●○○○○	1.3×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.07 FIP4.12 IP729.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-21 Weather · Petco Park cool air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.9°F Wind4 mph W Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-21 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note64°F, wind 4 mph W (in) — modifier: +0
20	Gunnar Henderson (L) ⁴	67	-10.0	●	Zack Littell (RHP) WSH @ BAL · Camden Yards	1:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV89.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-06-19 OffRoki Sasaki Exit Velo106.6 mph Angle40.0° Distance375 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	○○○○○	1.8×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.45 FIP4.81 IP784.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-18 Weather · Camden Yards mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.7°F Wind5.0 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-18 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note72°F, wind 5 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +0
21	Jorge Soler (R) ⁴	67	·	●	Aaron Civale (RHP) ATH @ LAA · Angel Stadium	12:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	11	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls7 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV88.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffTrey Gibson Exit Velo95.6 mph Angle28.0° Distance366 ft StadiumAngel Stadium	●○●○○	0.5×	1	ATH Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.47 FIP4.82 IP765.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-82 Weather · Angel Stadium cool air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.8°F Wind6.0 mph W Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-82 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note64°F, wind 6 mph W (cross) — modifier: +0
22	Jackson Chourio (R) ²	67	-4.4	●	Ryan Rolison (LHP) CHC @ MIL · American Family Field	1:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	11	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%8.8% Avg EV92.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffDavid Peterson Exit Velo108.0 mph Angle20.0° Distance411 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field	○○○○●	0.0×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB17.0% HR/91.60 FIP4.85 IP750.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+28 Weather · American Family Field cool air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp63.3°F Wind3 mph ENE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 11 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph ENE (out) — modifier: +0
23	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)	66	-12.8	●	Brandon Woodruff (RHP) CHC @ MIL · American Family Field	1:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-06-23 OffKodai Senga Exit Velo101.9 mph Angle27.0° Distance409 ft StadiumCiti Field	○○○○○	1.7×	·	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.8% HR/90.92 FIP3.53 IP721.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+31 Weather · American Family Field cool air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp63.3°F Wind3 mph ENE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph ENE (out) — modifier: +0
24	Jake Bauers (L) ²	66	-2.0	●	Ryan Rolison (LHP) CHC @ MIL · American Family Field	1:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	14	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%8.6% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffRhett Lowder Exit Velo109.8 mph Angle26.0° Distance428 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park	○○●○○	0.5×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB17.0% HR/91.60 FIP4.85 IP750.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+28 Weather · American Family Field cool air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp63.3°F Wind3 mph ENE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph ENE (out) — modifier: +0
25	Shea Langeliers (R) ³	66	·	●	Sam Aldegheri (LHP) ATH @ LAA · Angel Stadium	12:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%11.0% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-06-18 OffRyan Johnson Exit Velo103.8 mph Angle30.0° Distance430 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○○○	1.8×	·	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.09 FIP4.44 IP752.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-81 Weather · Angel Stadium cool air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.8°F Wind6.0 mph W Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-81 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note64°F, wind 6 mph W (cross) — modifier: +0
26	Cj Abrams (L) ³	65	-2.3	●	Kyle Bradish (RHP) WSH @ BAL · Camden Yards	1:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	23d Last HR · 2026-06-05 OffMerrill Kelly Exit Velo106.0 mph Angle20.0° Distance386 ft StadiumChase Field	●○○	·	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/91.06 FIP4.11 IP737.9 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-19 Weather · Camden Yards mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.7°F Wind5.0 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-19 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceblend · 1 HR Note72°F, wind 5 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +0
27	Ty France (R) ³	65	+2.6	●	Emmet Sheehan (RHP) LAD @ SD · Petco Park	1:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	10	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV91.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-06-26 OffRoki Sasaki Exit Velo98.1 mph Angle30.0° Distance372 ft StadiumPetco Park	○○●●○	0.2×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.05 FIP3.73 IP705.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-26 Weather · Petco Park cool air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.9°F Wind4 mph W Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-26 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 10 HR Note64°F, wind 4 mph W (in) — modifier: +0
28	Wyatt Langford (R)	65	·	●	TOR Bullpen Proxy TEX @ TOR · Rogers Centre	1:37p	🔵 C+	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	8	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%8.0% Avg EV88.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-06-25 OffKevin Gausman Exit Velo101.7 mph Angle32.0° Distance401 ft StadiumRogers Centre	○○●●○	0.5×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.13 FIP4.05 IP739.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 8 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
29	Paul Goldschmidt (R) ³	64	-1.8	●	Sonny Gray (RHP) NYY @ BOS · Fenway Park	7:20p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV87.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffTarik Skubal Exit Velo104.9 mph Angle30.0° Distance427 ft StadiumComerica Park	○●○○○	1.0×	·	BOS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.16 FIP4.07 IP720.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+15 Weather · Fenway Park cool air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.6°F Wind1.0 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+15 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR Note64°F, wind 1 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0
30	Colson Montgomery (L) ⁵	64	-10.8	●	Luinder Avila (RHP) KC @ CWS · Rate Field	2:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-06-18 OffRyan Weathers Exit Velo107.2 mph Angle27.0° Distance420 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○○○○○	4.0×	·	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.1% HR/91.30 FIP4.65 IP735.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR NoteUnknown stadium

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Today's Locks

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Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

16.9%

▼ -2.9 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 18.3% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-06-27

25 HRs

28%

7 caught / 25 HRs

in top 50

#6 Hunter Goodman

26.7%

🟡

#7 Jackson Chourio

34.6%

🔵

#8 Junior Caminero

26.3%

🔵

#17 Bryce Harper

32.4%

🔵

#26 Ian Happ

17.6%

🔵

#38 Kerry Carpenter

30.0%

🟠

#43 Brandon Lowe

16.5%

🟠

Missed

Ketel Marte Corey Seager Yohendrick Piñango Jonathan Aranda Gavin Sheets +13 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Bryce Harper ×3 Junior Caminero ×3 Brandon Lowe ×2 Dillon Dingler ×2 Curtis Mead ×2

❄️ Cold

Corbin Carroll 0 of 7d Juan Soto 0 of 7d James Wood 0 of 7d Colson Montgomery 0 of 6d Willson Contreras 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 20.2%

B 19.7%

C+ 16.0%

C 13.0%

D 8.5%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-06-28

You saw the full board yesterday

The top 10 picks. Every morning.