2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 4 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 5 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Shohei Ohtani 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 4 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 5 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Shohei Ohtani 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
MIA
@ 1:15p
STL
Busch Stadium · 14 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 1:15p · roof open
Park 0.83× Wind 1 mph in 75°F open
-5
8 mph · cross
87°F
1:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-4
9 mph · cross
91°F
2:15p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
9 mph · cross
96°F
3:15p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
9 mph · slight_out
99°F
4:15p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
9 mph · slight_out
97°F
5:15p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.83

75°F, wind 1 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Kyle Leahy
Kyle Leahy RHP 💥 Meltdown
1.08 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.19 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Owen Caissie Owen Caissie 57 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 49 0.190 91.5 13.2% 25.7% vs RHP 391 13.0% 30.0% 20.2% 18
2 Kyle Stowers Kyle Stowers 52 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 70 0.200 90.7 11.3% 20.0% vs RHP 401 9.1% 18.2% 20.0% 20
3 Heriberto Hernández Heriberto Hernández 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 128 0.179 92.0 10.6% 19.1% vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 22
4 Otto Lopez Otto Lopez 37 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 157 0.138 89.9 9.1% 10.9% vs RHP 404 6.2% 8.3% 6.2% 39
5 Xavier Edwards Xavier Edwards 32 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 184 0.132 87.0 7.7% 4.5% vs RHP 396 6.3% 0.0% 6.2% 30
6 Jakob Marsee Jakob Marsee 28 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 205 0.097 86.8 6.4% 7.5% vs RHP 379 6.3% 8.3% 6.5% 32
7 Javier Sanoja Javier Sanoja 23 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 215 0.104 87.0 3.9% 0.0% vs RHP 369 4.3% 0.0% 4.8% 23
Tyler Phillips
Tyler Phillips RHP
0.93 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.11 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jordan Walker Jordan Walker 52 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 71 0.232 93.8 10.0% 30.2% vs RHP 408 17.4% 0.0% 13.4% 30
2 Alec Burleson Alec Burleson 48 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 90 0.199 91.8 8.9% 23.1% vs RHP 405 16.9% 9.1% 11.2% 37
3 Ivan Herrera Ivan Herrera 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 168 0.164 89.8 7.2% 19.4% vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 27
4 Nathan Church Nathan Church 34 ⚪ D · · 171 0.139 85.9 8.2% 22.7% vs RHP 387 6.1% 0.0% 7.8% 20
5 Jj Wetherholt Jj Wetherholt 33 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 174 0.146 90.0 7.2% 19.6% vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 42
6 Pedro Pages Pedro Pages 30 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 192 0.134 87.0 6.7% 20.0% vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 5
7 Masyn Winn Masyn Winn 25 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 214 0.089 87.4 5.0% 13.0% vs RHP 389 4.0% 9.1% 6.2% 32
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.24 · build 525

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.