17
HRs allowed
14.0%
HR rate (pool)
13.4%
Overall HR/FB
4.49
FIP
4.74
xFIP
-0.25
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
58
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 58th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
76.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.0 EV · 401 ft
max EV allowed 112.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 6 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Aaron Civale.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
35.3%
82.6
29.2°
3
-0.6
Curveball Breaking
24.5%
81.9
11.6°
1
+0.2
Sinker Hard
19.2%
85.8
29.3°
5
+3.2
Fastball Hard
12.0%
86.8
33.3°
6
+4.0
Splitter Offspeed
5.6%
84.2
10.5°
0
+3.1
Slider Breaking
3.4%
86.1
18.9°
1
+3.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups121
HRs allowed (pool)17
Pool HR rate14.0%
Pool HR/game day1.21
Top-15 matchups9
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB13.4% 58
HR/9—
FIP4.49 66
xFIP4.74
FIP − xFIP-0.25 33
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed76.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Cutter
Hard · 35.3% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.6 mph
Avg launch angle29.2°
HRs allowed3
Pitches463
Curveball
Breaking · 24.5% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle11.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches322
Sinker
Hard · 19.2% usage
+3.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.8 mph
Avg launch angle29.3°
HRs allowed5
Pitches252
Fastball
Hard · 12.0% usage
+4.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.8 mph
Avg launch angle33.3°
HRs allowed6
Pitches157
Splitter
Offspeed · 5.6% usage
+3.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle10.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches73
Slider
Breaking · 3.4% usage
+3.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.1 mph
Avg launch angle18.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches45
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Aaron Civale.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
17 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.0 EV · 401 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 14 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-04
8
2
106.8
2026-06-28
9
1
104.6
2026-06-23
7
1
112.1
2026-06-17
7
2
107.1
2026-05-25
9
4
106.4
2026-05-20
9
3
110.5
2026-05-15
9
1
103.3
2026-05-09
9
0
111.8
2026-05-03
9
1
101.2
2026-04-22
9
1
109.6
2026-04-17
9
0
111.4
2026-04-12
9
0
107.9
2026-04-07
9
0
110.5
2026-03-31
9
1
105.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Aaron Civale isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.