17
HRs allowed
14.0%
HR rate (pool)
13.4%
Overall HR/FB
4.49
FIP
4.74
xFIP
-0.25
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
55
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 55th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
19.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed
76.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.0 EV · 401 ft
max EV allowed 112.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 6 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Aaron Civale.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
36.6%
81.2
30.2°
4
-1.2
Curveball Breaking
25.0%
80.0
6.9°
1
-0.4
Sinker Hard
17.0%
85.1
28.6°
5
+2.7
Fastball Hard
11.6%
86.9
34.0°
6
+3.3
Splitter Offspeed
6.4%
84.4
11.4°
0
+2.4
Slider Breaking
3.5%
86.9
21.5°
1
+5.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups121
HRs allowed (pool)17
Pool HR rate14.0%
Pool HR/game day1.21
Top-15 matchups9
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB13.4% 55
HR/9—
FIP4.49 67
xFIP4.74
FIP − xFIP-0.25 30
Barrel% allowed19.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed76.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Cutter
Hard · 36.6% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle30.2°
HRs allowed4
Pitches602
Curveball
Breaking · 25.0% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.0 mph
Avg launch angle6.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches412
Sinker
Hard · 17.0% usage
+2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.1 mph
Avg launch angle28.6°
HRs allowed5
Pitches279
Fastball
Hard · 11.6% usage
+3.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.9 mph
Avg launch angle34.0°
HRs allowed6
Pitches191
Splitter
Offspeed · 6.4% usage
+2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.4 mph
Avg launch angle11.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches105
Slider
Breaking · 3.5% usage
+5.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.9 mph
Avg launch angle21.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches57
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Aaron Civale.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
17 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.0 EV · 401 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 14 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-04
8
2
106.8
2026-06-28
9
1
104.6
2026-06-23
7
1
112.1
2026-06-17
7
2
107.1
2026-05-25
9
4
106.4
2026-05-20
9
3
110.5
2026-05-15
9
1
103.3
2026-05-09
9
0
111.8
2026-05-03
9
1
101.2
2026-04-22
9
1
109.6
2026-04-17
9
0
111.4
2026-04-12
9
0
107.9
2026-04-07
9
0
110.5
2026-03-31
9
1
105.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Aaron Civale isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Aaron Civale isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
51
10
20%
18
4
22%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
7
1
14%
9
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 8. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Aaron Civale
How many home runs has Aaron Civale allowed this season?
Aaron Civale has allowed 17 home runs across 14 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Aaron Civale?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Aaron Civale include Josh Lowe (2), Salvador Perez (2), Aaron Judge (1) and 27 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.