2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 4 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 5 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Shohei Ohtani 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 4 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 5 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Shohei Ohtani 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
COL
@ 1:10p
MIN
Target Field · 18 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Target Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open
Park 1.11× Wind 7 mph cross 70°F open
-10
14 mph · in
72°F
1:10p
Suppress for HR environment
-10
14 mph · in
72°F
2:10p
Suppress for HR environment
-10
14 mph · in
73°F
3:10p
Suppress for HR environment
-10
14 mph · in
74°F
4:10p
Suppress for HR environment
-9
13 mph · in
73°F
5:10p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.11

70°F, wind 7 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Ryan Feltner
Ryan Feltner RHP 💥 Meltdown
1.24 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.29 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Byron Buxton Byron Buxton 83 🟢 A +225 · 2 0.325 90.7 13.1% 33.9% vs RHP 402 32.9% 25.0% 32.9% 39
2 Kody Clemens Kody Clemens 68 🔵 C+ +425 · 17 0.236 92.4 10.7% 20.0% vs RHP 387 15.0% 18.2% 21.6% 34
3 Brooks Lee Brooks Lee 60 🔵 C+ +750 🌧️ COOL 40 0.202 87.6 6.4% 23.9% vs RHP 367 17.6% 27.3% 25.9% 38
4 Royce Lewis Royce Lewis 56 🟠 C +425 · 52 0.155 88.9 10.8% 18.5% vs RHP 397 16.7% 8.3% 11.4% 32
5 Josh Bell Josh Bell 52 🟠 C +500 🌧️ COOL 69 0.144 89.3 9.2% 20.0% vs RHP 402 8.5% 18.2% 12.8% 35
6 Trevor Larnach Trevor Larnach 50 🟠 C +750 🌤️ WARM 80 0.150 86.3 7.8% 13.2% vs RHP 406 6.1% 20.0% 12.9% 33
7 Victor Caratini Victor Caratini 46 ⚪ D +750 🔥 HOT 100 0.138 89.5 8.4% 20.0% vs RHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 25
8 Luke Keaschall Luke Keaschall 34 ⚪ D +950 · 170 0.083 84.5 5.3% 5.0% vs RHP 369 2.9% 0.0% 7.8% 28
9 Austin Martin Austin Martin 32 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 182 0.078 86.7 4.7% 4.3% vs RHP 392 2.1% 0.0% 7.8% 12
Connor Prielipp
Connor Prielipp LHP
0.98 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.17 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Hunter Goodman Hunter Goodman 79 🟡 B +330 · 3 0.273 91.2 12.5% 37.5% vs LHP 406 26.8% 36.4% 37.4% 33
2 Tj Rumfield Tj Rumfield 51 🟠 C +850 ❄ COLD 74 0.200 84.3 7.6% 6.2% vs LHP 406 11.1% 0.0% 17.6% 37
3 Jake Mccarthy Jake Mccarthy 50 🟠 C +950 🌧️ COOL 78 0.178 84.6 7.4% 0.0% vs LHP 411 22.2% 0.0% 8.7% 38
4 Kyle Karros Kyle Karros 48 ⚪ D +750 🌤️ WARM 94 0.130 89.3 8.3% 6.7% vs LHP 404 8.3% 25.0% 8.2% 21
5 Ezequiel Tovar Ezequiel Tovar 46 ⚪ D +700 ❄ COLD 104 0.138 87.7 8.5% 0.0% vs LHP 415 6.8% 10.0% 7.6% 25
6 Willi Castro Willi Castro 44 ⚪ D +625 🌤️ WARM 115 0.120 88.3 7.4% 7.1% vs LHP 425 6.6% 18.2% 14.0% 30
7 Troy Johnston Troy Johnston 41 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 133 0.150 89.3 4.9% 6.7% vs LHP 415 1.7% 14.3% 8.8% 18
8 Edouard Julien Edouard Julien 39 ⚪ D · · 147 0.101 91.5 8.2% 9.7% 389 3.0% 0.0% 7.2% 15
9 Tyler Freeman Tyler Freeman 31 ⚪ D +750 ❄ COLD 188 0.090 87.6 3.5% 25.0% vs LHP 369 3.1% 0.0% 10.5% 28
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.24 · build 525

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.