ATL
@
1:05p
SF
Stadium Conditions
Oracle Park
First pitch 1:05p
· roof open
Park 0.81×
Wind 9 mph slight_out
55°F
open
-1
11 mph · slight_out
69°F
1:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
13 mph · slight_out
72°F
2:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
13 mph · slight_out
71°F
3:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
13 mph · slight_out
70°F
4:05p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
12 mph · slight_out
70°F
5:05p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.73
55°F, wind 9 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Matt Olson | 60 | 🔵 C+ | +390 | ❄ COLD | 44 | 0.269 | 92.6 | 11.8% | 21.1% vs LHP | 409 | 21.0% | 0.0% | 12.0% | 28 |
| 2 |
|
Drake Baldwin ⚡ | 58 | 🟠 C | +475 | ❄ COLD | 48 | 0.214 | 91.6 | 13.5% | 53.8% vs LHP | 407 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 17.6% | 16 |
| 3 |
|
Austin Riley | 41 | ⚪ D | +425 | · | 137 | 0.153 | 91.0 | 10.3% | 17.6% vs LHP | 409 | 7.5% | 0.0% | 8.1% | 24 |
| 4 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 39 | ⚪ D | +475 | 🌧️ COOL | 148 | 0.162 | 87.2 | 6.5% | 16.2% vs LHP | 383 | 12.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Dominic Smith | 36 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 163 | 0.138 | 87.9 | 8.6% | 0.0% vs LHP | 390 | 7.8% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 21 |
| 6 |
|
Mike Yastrzemski | 35 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 167 | 0.143 | 90.5 | 6.1% | 0.0% vs LHP | 374 | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 15 |
| 7 |
|
Mauricio Dubon | 33 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 173 | 0.146 | 86.3 | 7.5% | 11.5% vs LHP | 392 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 39 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willy Adames | 45 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 112 | 0.207 | 88.5 | 7.6% | 13.0% vs LHP | 389 | 15.4% | 23.1% | 15.8% | 29 |
| 2 |
|
Casey Schmitt | 45 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌤️ WARM | 113 | 0.220 | 89.5 | 8.7% | 14.3% vs LHP | 394 | 16.7% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 33 |
| 3 |
|
Rafael Devers | 45 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 114 | 0.196 | 92.0 | 7.9% | 13.0% vs LHP | 403 | 14.7% | 23.1% | 15.8% | 28 |
| 4 |
|
Matt Chapman ⚡ | 30 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌤️ WARM | 198 | 0.147 | 88.3 | 6.4% | 18.2% vs LHP | 398 | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 21 |
| 5 |
|
Jung Hoo Lee | 27 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 209 | 0.151 | 87.8 | 4.1% | 11.8% vs LHP | 378 | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 36 |
| 6 |
|
Drew Gilbert | 21 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 217 | 0.125 | 85.4 | 3.8% | 7.5% | 393 | 2.6% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 21 |
| 7 |
|
Luis Arraez | 17 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 221 | 0.124 | 87.3 | 1.4% | 5.0% vs LHP | 357 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.5% | 32 |