Matt Chapman
RHB1
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
1.9%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
12.1%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
87.6
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.120
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#10
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
Today's Matchup ?Live matchup data for today's game. Pitcher stats, report flags, park factor, and weather all feed into the model score.
SF @ COL · 3:10p
Tanner Gordon
(RHP)
HR/FB 0.0% ?Pitcher's HR-per-fly-ball rate. Higher = more HR-prone. League avg is ~12%.
HR/9 1.67 ?Home runs allowed per 9 innings. Higher = pitcher gives up more longballs.
FIP 4.17 ?Fielding Independent Pitching — isolates pitcher skill from defense. Higher FIP = more HR-vulnerable.
#190
⚪ D
Coors Field
Park × 1.039 ?Park factor for this stadium. Values above 1.0 boost HR probability; below 1.0 suppress it. Based on multi-year park HR data.
WT 4 ?Weather modifier. Positive = wind/heat boost HRs. Negative = cold/headwind suppresses them. Based on live game-time weather data.
HR Profile
?Statcast-style HR metrics for this batter — same fields the model scores on. Red = elite, orange = above average, blue = below average, grey = no data.
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
0.102
ISO ?Isolated Power (SLG − AVG). >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg.
16th pctile
87.1
Avg EV (mph) ?Average exit velocity (mph) on all batted balls. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg.
20th pctile
7.8%
Barrel% ?Percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA combo). >12% elite.
40th pctile
8.0%
HR/FB ?Home runs per fly ball. >18% elite, league avg ~12%.
24th pctile
349
Avg HR Dist (ft) ?Average distance of this batter's HRs in feet. >400 elite raw power.
1th pctile
1.9%
Season HR% ?HRs ÷ plate appearances this season. v3.5 model feature — strongest single backtest contributor.
0.0%
14d Pace ?HRs per game over last 14 days. v3.5 model feature — captures current hot/cold streak.
5.7%
Match% ?Combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate — the headline "how favorable is this matchup" number.
7th pctile
37
BBE ?Batted-ball events — sample size. Treat stats with caution below 30.
53
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
5
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
0
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
0%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#155.5
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend ?Daily model rank over time. The Y-axis is inverted — lower on the chart = better rank. Green dots mark days this batter hit a home run.
All Appearances ?Complete log of every time this batter appeared on the scored slate. Includes model rank, tier, form trend, and whether they went yard. Rows highlighted in green = HR days.
| Date | Rank | Pitcher | B/P | HR/FB | Tier | Form | WT | BP | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | #152 | Ryan Feltner | R/R * | 9.5% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-29 | #170 | Michael Lorenzen | R/R * | 7.3% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-27 | #233 | Michael Soroka | R/R * | 7.1% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-26 | #222 | Eduardo Rodriguez | R/L * | 5.9% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-25 | #137 | Merrill Kelly | R/R * | 8.3% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-24 | #231 | Noah Schultz | R/L * | 6.9% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-23 | #271 | Bryan Hudson | R/L * | 6.1% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-05-22 | #234 | Davis Martin | R/R * | 6.9% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 🔥 | · | |
| 2026-05-20 | #208 | Merrill Kelly | R/R * | 6.7% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | — | · | |
| 2026-05-19 | #186 | Ryne Nelson | R/R * | 6.3% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-18 | #197 | Zac Gallen | R/R * | 8.2% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-17 | #163 | Jeffrey Springs | R/L * | 8.5% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-05-16 | #172 | Luis Severino | R/R * | 10.0% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-05-15 | #169 | Aaron Civale | R/R * | 7.1% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-05-14 | #84 | Emmet Sheehan | R/R * | 6.0% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-05-13 | #105 | Shohei Ohtani | R/R * | 9.5% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-05-12 | #101 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | R/R * | 7.5% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-05-11 | #10 | Roki Sasaki | R/R * | 14.0% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-05-10 | #174 | Bubba Chandler | R/R * | 6.1% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 🔥 | · | |
| 2026-05-09 | #213 | Braxton Ashcraft | R/R * | 6.2% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 🔥 | · | |
| 2026-05-08 | #201 | Carmen Mlodzinski | R/R * | 5.7% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 🔥 | · | |
| 2026-05-06 | #207 | Matt Waldron | R/R * | 8.0% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-05 | #233 | Walker Buehler | R/R * | 8.7% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-04 | #196 | Randy Vásquez | R/R * | 7.9% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-03 | #172 | Steven Matz | R/L * | 8.6% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 🔥 | · | |
| 2026-05-02 | #154 | Griffin Jax | R/R * | 8.5% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 🔥 | · | |
| 2026-05-01 | #223 | Shane McClanahan | R/L * | 6.3% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 🔥 | · | |
| 2026-04-30 | #166 | Cristopher Sánchez | R/L * | 7.5% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-04-29 | #155 | Cristopher Sánchez | R/L * | 7.8% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-04-28 | #122 | Jesús Luzardo | R/L * | 8.3% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-04-26 | #271 | Max Meyer | R/R * | 6.9% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-04-25 | #262 | Eury Pérez | R/R | 6.2% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-04-24 | #245 | Sandy Alcantara | R/R | 5.7% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-04-23 | #151 | Tyler Glasnow | R/R | 5.6% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-04-22 | #254 | Shohei Ohtani | R/R | 5.3% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-04-21 | #225 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | R/R | 6.0% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-04-19 | #94 | PJ Poulin | R/L | 9.5% | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | — | · | |
| 2026-04-18 | #160 | Cade Cavalli | R/R | 6.3% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | — | · | |
| 2026-04-17 | #153 | Zack Littell | R/R | 9.3% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | — | · | |
| 2026-04-16 | #45 | Chase Burns | R/R | 10.6% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | — | · | |
| 2026-04-15 | #43 | Rhett Lowder | R/R | 11.1% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | — | · | |
| 2026-04-11 | #48 | Chris Bassitt | R/R | 15.8% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-04-10 | #51 | Shane Baz | R/R | 17.6% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-04-08 | #67 | Aaron Nola | R/R | 12.9% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-04-07 | #125 | Cristopher Sánchez | R/L | 9.2% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-04-06 | #64 | Andrew Painter | R/R | 12.6% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-04-05 | #133 | Kodai Senga | R/R | 10.7% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-04-04 | #121 | Clay Holmes | R/R | 10.8% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-04-02 | #28 | David Peterson | R/L | 10.2% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-04-01 | #151 | Nick Pivetta | R/R | 10.8% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-03-31 | #105 | Germán Márquez | R/R | 12.2% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ✅ | ||
| 2026-03-30 | #79 | Walker Buehler | R/R | 13.8% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-03-28 | #107 | Will Warren | · | 12.1% | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | — | · |