MLB Home Run Predictions — June 5, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-06-05: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for June 5, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | James Wood | Merrill Kelly | 81 | A Excellent |
| #7 | Hunter Goodman | Brandon Sproat | 75 | B AboveAvg |
| #8 | Casey Schmitt | Edward Cabrera | 75 | B AboveAvg |
| #23 | Ben Rice | Sonny Gray | 67 | C+ Value |
| #26 | Willson Contreras | Ryan Weathers | 66 | C+ Value |
| #33 | Willy Adames | Edward Cabrera | 63 | C+ Value |
| #35 | Freddie Freeman | LAA Bullpen Proxy | 62 | C+ Value |
| #38 | Cj Abrams | Merrill Kelly | 61 | C+ Value |
| #63 | Seiya Suzuki | Robbie Ray | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #77 | Brent Rooker | Peter Lambert | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #85 | Adolis García | Anthony Kay | 49 | D Below |
| #86 | Brandon Marsh | Anthony Kay | 49 | D Below |
| #93 | Randal Grichuk | Jesús Luzardo | 47 | D Below |
| #95 | Kerry Carpenter | Bryan Woo | 47 | D Below |
| #98 | Coby Mayo | Trey Yesavage | 47 | D Below |
| #101 | Colt Emerson | Framber Valdez | 46 | D Below |
| #102 | Brandon Valenzuela | Brandon Young | 46 | D Below |
| #103 | Daylen Lile | Merrill Kelly | 46 | D Below |
| #107 | Alec Burleson | Brady Singer | 45 | D Below |
| #109 | Adley Rutschman | Trey Yesavage | 45 | D Below |
| #117 | Corey Seager | Parker Messick | 44 | D Below |
| #119 | Matt Chapman | Edward Cabrera | 44 | D Below |
| #125 | Isaac Paredes | Jack Perkins | 43 | D Below |
| #126 | Brooks Lee | Michael Wacha | 43 | D Below |
| #132 | Travis Bazzana | Kumar Rocker | 42 | D Below |
| #137 | Trent Grisham | Sonny Gray | 41 | D Below |
| #149 | Spencer Torkelson | Bryan Woo | 39 | D Below |
| #153 | Andruw Monasterio | Ryan Weathers | 39 | D Below |
| #161 | Mauricio Dubón | Mitch Keller | 37 | D Below |
| #172 | Cedric Mullins | MIA Bullpen Proxy | 35 | D Below |
| #199 | Luis Torrens | Michael King | 29 | D Below |
| #200 | Derek Hill | Jesús Luzardo | 28 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Seiya Suzuki, Brent Rooker, Adolis García, Brandon Marsh, Randal Grichuk, Kerry Carpenter, Coby Mayo, Colt Emerson, Brandon Valenzuela, Daylen Lile, Alec Burleson, Adley Rutschman, Corey Seager, Matt Chapman, Isaac Paredes, Brooks Lee, Travis Bazzana, Trent Grisham, Spencer Torkelson, Andruw Monasterio, Mauricio Dubón, Cedric Mullins, Luis Torrens, Derek Hill