Today · 2026-08-17

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 3 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#3 Shohei Ohtani vs Tomoyuki Sugano FIP 5.51 HR/FB 23.6% #6 Pro pick vs Tomoyuki Sugano FIP 5.51 HR/FB 23.6% #9 Pro pick vs Mason Barnett FIP 6.78 HR/FB 23.8%

📦 STACK Shota Imanaga FIP 4.64 HR/FB 24.4% → #1 Munetaka Murakami, #5 Miguel Vargas, #12 Pro pick

📦 STACK Janson Junk FIP 4.34 HR/FB 19.4% → #2 Kyle Schwarber, #10 Pro pick

📦 STACK Tomoyuki Sugano FIP 5.51 HR/FB 23.6% → #3 Shohei Ohtani, #6 Pro pick

📦 STACK Luis Castillo FIP 4.43 HR/FB 17.6% → #8 Pro pick, #14 Pro pick

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-08-16. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.1% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Munetaka Murakami (L)	76	-5.9	●	Shota Imanaga (LHP) CWS @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	28	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%14.1% Avg EV94.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-08-16 OffTyler Holton Exit Velo102.4 mph Angle33.0° Distance393 ft StadiumComerica Park	○○●○●	0.0×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.2% HR/91.54 FIP4.76 IP979.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+13 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind2 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+13 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note76°F, wind 2 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
2	Kyle Schwarber (L) ⁴	73	-15.4	●	Janson Junk (RHP) MIA @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	37	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV93.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-08-13 OffTaj Bradley Exit Velo108.0 mph Angle39.0° Distance355 ft StadiumField of Dreams	○○●○○	0.5×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.07 FIP4.08 IP1103.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+1 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79°F Wind6 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+1 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 36 HR Note79°F, wind 6 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
3	Shohei Ohtani (L) ⁵	72	-19.2	●	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) LAD @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	27	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%14.7% Avg EV93.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-08-12 OffDaniel Lynch IV Exit Velo109.5 mph Angle34.0° Distance397 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	●○○○○	1.0×	2	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.42 FIP4.90 IP1080.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+55 Weather · Coors Field hot air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp86°F Wind13 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier6 Spray/Wind+55 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note86°F, wind 13 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast)
4	Matt Olson (L) ⁴	70	-13.7	●	Bailey Ober (RHP) ATL @ MIN · Target Field	7:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	36	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-08-16 OffBrandyn Garcia Exit Velo109.5 mph Angle24.0° Distance437 ft StadiumTruist Park	●○○○●	0.0×	·	MIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.0% HR/91.18 FIP4.38 IP1067.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+5 Weather · Target Field warm air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78°F Wind8 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 35 HR Note78°F, wind 8 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
5	Miguel Vargas (R) ²	69	-6.7	●	Shota Imanaga (LHP) CWS @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	28	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-08-16 OffJacob Waguespack Exit Velo98.0 mph Angle30.0° Distance381 ft StadiumComerica Park	●○●○●	0.0×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.2% HR/91.54 FIP4.76 IP979.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+15 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind2 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+15 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note76°F, wind 2 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
6	Pro pick (L)	69	-12.8	●	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) LAD @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%13.4% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.42 FIP4.90 IP1080.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+52 Weather · Coors Field hot air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp86°F Wind13 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier6 Spray/Wind+52 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR Note86°F, wind 13 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast)
7	Pro pick (R)	66	-8.6	●	Brandon Young (RHP) BAL @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%9.2% Avg EV92.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.4% HR/91.04 FIP4.09 IP1077.9 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 35 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
8	Pro pick (L)	66	-9.9	●	Luis Castillo (RHP) CWS @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.1% HR/91.09 FIP4.20 IP1048.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+10 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind2 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+10 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note76°F, wind 2 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
9	Pro pick (L)	64	-6.6	●	Mason Barnett (RHP) ATH @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.56 FIP5.02 IP1104.3 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-10 Weather · Kauffman Stadium hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind4 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-10 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note85°F, wind 4 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
10	Pro pick (L)	64	-8.4	●	Janson Junk (RHP) MIA @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.07 FIP4.08 IP1103.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-9 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79°F Wind6 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-9 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR Note79°F, wind 6 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
11	Pro pick (L)	61	-10.1	●	Rhett Lowder (RHP) STL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.28 FIP4.72 IP1049.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+37 Weather · Great American Ball Park mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69°F Wind7 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+37 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note69°F, wind 7 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
12	Pro pick (L)	61	-7.5	●	Shota Imanaga (LHP) CWS @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV88.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.2% HR/91.54 FIP4.76 IP979.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+11 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind2 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+11 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR Note76°F, wind 2 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
13	Pro pick (R)	64	-10.5	●	CIN Bullpen Proxy STL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	1:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%13.1% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.28 FIP4.72 IP1049.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+45 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind8 mph W Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+45 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note80°F, wind 8 mph W (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
14	Pro pick (R)	60	-6.4	●	Luis Castillo (RHP) CWS @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV89.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.1% HR/91.09 FIP4.20 IP1048.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+15 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind2 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+15 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note76°F, wind 2 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
15	Pro pick (R)	60	-6.2	●	Shane McClanahan (LHP) BAL @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV94.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.21 FIP4.05 IP1073.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
16	Pro pick (R)	60	-11.7	●	Rhett Lowder (RHP) STL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.28 FIP4.72 IP1049.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+26 Weather · Great American Ball Park mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69°F Wind7 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+26 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note69°F, wind 7 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
17	Pro pick (L)	63	-9.5	●	CIN Bullpen Proxy STL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	1:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.28 FIP4.72 IP1049.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+42 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind8 mph W Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+42 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note80°F, wind 8 mph W (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
18	Pro pick (R)	59	·	●	Blake Snell (LHP) LAD @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.24 FIP4.15 IP1106.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+58 Weather · Coors Field hot air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp86°F Wind13 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier6 Spray/Wind+58 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 33 HR Note86°F, wind 13 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast)
19	Pro pick (S)	58	-5.8	●	Luis Castillo (RHP) CWS @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV89.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.1% HR/91.09 FIP4.20 IP1048.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+12 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind2 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+12 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note76°F, wind 2 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
20	Pro pick (R)	58	-14.5	●	Martín Pérez (LHP) ATL @ MIN · Target Field	7:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls7 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.21 FIP4.26 IP1058.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+24 Weather · Target Field warm air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78°F Wind8 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+24 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR Note78°F, wind 8 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
21	Pro pick (S)	57	-7.7	●	Andre Pallante (RHP) STL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	6:40p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%8.8% Avg EV93.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.00 FIP4.14 IP1084.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+29 Weather · Great American Ball Park mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69°F Wind7 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note69°F, wind 7 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
22	Pro pick (R)	57	-9.6	●	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) LAD @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls41 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV89.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.42 FIP4.90 IP1080.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+57 Weather · Coors Field hot air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp86°F Wind13 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier6 Spray/Wind+57 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note86°F, wind 13 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast)
23	Pro pick (S)	57	-7.7	●	Quinn Mathews (LHP) STL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	1:40p	🟠 C	SHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%8.7% Avg EV93.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.00 FIP4.14 IP1084.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+46 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind8 mph W Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+46 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note80°F, wind 8 mph W (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
24	Pro pick (R)	56	-9.9	●	Andre Pallante (RHP) STL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	6:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%8.8% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.00 FIP4.14 IP1084.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+30 Weather · Great American Ball Park mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69°F Wind7 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+30 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note69°F, wind 7 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
25	Pro pick (R)	56	-9.9	●	Quinn Mathews (LHP) STL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	1:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%8.7% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.00 FIP4.14 IP1084.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+44 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind8 mph W Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+44 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note80°F, wind 8 mph W (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
26	Pro pick (R)	59	-6.5	●	CIN Bullpen Proxy STL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	1:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls5 BBE Barrel%14.5% Avg EV88.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.28 FIP4.72 IP1049.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+49 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind8 mph W Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+49 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 5 HR Note80°F, wind 8 mph W (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
27	Pro pick (R)	55	-4.1	●	Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP) DET @ PIT · PNC Park	7:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV88.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PIT Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.6% HR/91.07 FIP4.04 IP1080.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+14 Weather · PNC Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73°F Wind4 mph NW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+14 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note73°F, wind 4 mph NW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
28	Pro pick (L)	55	-3.8	●	Framber Valdez (LHP) DET @ PIT · PNC Park	7:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	DET Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/91.00 FIP3.92 IP1101.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+23 Weather · PNC Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73°F Wind4 mph NW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note73°F, wind 4 mph NW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
29	Pro pick (R)	55	-12.2	●	Mitch Bratt (LHP) AZ @ BOS · Fenway Park	7:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.16 FIP4.35 IP1073.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-14 Weather · Fenway Park mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70°F Wind3 mph E Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-14 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note70°F, wind 3 mph E (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
30	Pro pick (L)	54	·	●	Martín Pérez (LHP) ATL @ MIN · Target Field	7:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%8.2% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.21 FIP4.26 IP1058.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+3 Weather · Target Field warm air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78°F Wind8 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note78°F, wind 8 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

14.3%

▲ +2.8 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 12.9% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-08-16

39 HRs

35%

14 caught / 39 HRs

in top 50

#1 Matt Olson

32.9%

🟡

#5 Munetaka Murakami

31.5%

🔵

#9 Pete Crow-Armstrong

27.2%

🔵

#10 Alec Burleson

26.5%

🔵

#12 Max Muncy

16.1%

🔵

#16 Heriberto Hernández

23.1%

🔵

#17 Jordan Walker

19.8%

🔵

#18 Max Muncy

20.5%

🔵

#22 Miguel Vargas

29.7%

🟠

#25 Zack Gelof

23.7%

🟠

#34 Jake Burger

16.9%

🟠

#42 Ben Rice

17.8%

🟠

#44 Kody Clemens

14.8%

🟠

#49 Randy Arozarena

16.7%

🟠

Missed

Cal Raleigh Andy Pages Lawrence Butler Colton Cowser Jeremy Peña +20 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Miguel Vargas ×3 Max Muncy ×3 Jac Caglianone ×2 Jake Burger ×2 Alec Burleson ×2

❄️ Cold

Jake Bauers 0 of 7d Jackson Chourio 0 of 7d Bryce Harper 0 of 6d Elly De La Cruz 0 of 6d Esmerlyn Valdez 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.3%

B 20.1%

C+ 16.9%

C 13.4%

D 8.9%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-08-17

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.