TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ MIN

Neutral air · 1.05×

ATL @ MIN

Target Field · 7:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 8 mph cross 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:40p

+4 ↑

7:40p

+4 ↑

8:40p

+4 ↑

9:40p

+4 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +4 FIT

Best of game Matt Olson conv 37 · vs Ober ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 23 · vs Pérez → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Bailey Ober RHP · MIN

leak 85

1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +280 B ●●●●●

2 Austin Riley +350 C ●●●○○

3 Ozzie Albies +425 D ●●○○○

FADE Martín Pérez LHP · ATL

leak 74

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens +500 C ●●●○○

2 Josh Bell +500 D ●●●○○

3 Brooks Lee +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 15.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Ober Edge +280 0.282 · 92.6 · 12.6% 41.7% 31.9% F B O B 70

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Pérez +500 0.228 · 92.4 · 8.2% 20.0% 25.3% F B O C 54

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Ober +350 0.149 · 91.2 · 11.3% 25.0% 15.1% F B O C 50

· MIN Byron Buxton COOL vs Pérez Edge +305 0.278 · 90.3 · 10.1% 0.0% 20.5% F B O C 58

· ATL Michael Harris II COOL vs Ober Edge +390 0.194 · 90.7 · 10.6% 0.0% 13.3% F B O C 52

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Ober Edge +370 0.176 · 91.6 · 11.8% 0.0% 12.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIN Josh Bell vs Pérez Edge +500 0.168 · 90.0 · 7.7% 25.0% 14.7% F B O D 45

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Ober Edge +425 0.174 · 87.0 · 6.7% 18.2% 12.7% F B O D 45

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Pérez Edge +750 0.173 · 87.7 · 4.6% 18.2% 11.9% F B O D 41

· ATL Ronald Acuna Jr. vs Ober +370 0.196 · 90.4 · 11.7% 0.0% 21.2% F B O D 48

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Pérez Edge +425 0.186 · 90.2 · 8.4% 8.3% 12.1% F B O D 47

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Pérez Edge +850 0.106 · 84.7 · 4.3% 9.1% 6.5% F B O D 31

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Ober Edge +400 0.165 · 90.6 · 8.8% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 44

· MIN Ryan Jeffers COOL vs Pérez Edge +500 0.209 · 89.0 · 7.9% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 46

· ATL Jim Jarvis COOL vs Ober Edge — 0.099 · 88.5 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 35

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Ober +950 0.130 · 86.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 34

· MIN Alan Roden COOL vs Pérez +900 0.055 · 87.6 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 35.5% ← leak OFF 34.4% BRK 30.1% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

18.1% 11.9% 12.3% 15.6% B 70 +280

Neutral · 3

Michael Harris II L Edge

6.5% 15.0% 13.7% 10.5% C 52 +390

Drake Baldwin L Edge

12.9% 4.3% 19.5% 13.2% C 51 +370

Austin Riley R

13.5% 5.6% 14.1% 12.7% C 50 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ronald Acuna Jr. R

14.0% 15.4% 11.1% 13.5% D 48 +370

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.8% 2.9% 1.8% 4.4% D 45 +425

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.7% 6.1% 7.8% 7.5% D 44 +400

147

Jim Jarvis L Edge

6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% D 35 —

153

Mauricio Dubon R

2.8% 4.8% 5.6% 3.9% D 34 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (35.5% usage) carries Ober's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.0% ← leak OFF 30.5% BRK 7.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Byron Buxton R Edge

19.2% 13.8% 14.3% 17.1% C 58 +305

Kody Clemens L

9.1% 10.0% 19.4% 11.6% C 54 +500

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R Edge

14.9% 10.7% 7.4% 12.2% D 47 +425

Ryan Jeffers R Edge

12.0% 4.8% 10.0% 10.5% D 46 +500

Josh Bell S Edge

10.9% 5.2% 12.5% 9.9% D 45 +500

106

Brooks Lee S Edge

6.9% 1.1% 0.0% 3.6% D 41 +750

166

Alan Roden L

10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% D 33 +900

170

Luke Keaschall R Edge

4.1% 0.0% 2.2% 3.1% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.0% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Riley Albies Clemens Bell Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Ober fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Matt Olson +280 · 70

Kody Clemens +500 · 54

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 8 mph cross 82°F open

↑

5 mph · out

75°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

75°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · out

75°F

8:40p

↑

5 mph · out

75°F

9:40p

↑

5 mph · out

75°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.05× 82°F, wind 8 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bailey Ober · RHP 1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 70 B +280 WARM 4 0.282 92.6 12.6% 34.8%vs RHP 407 25.6% 41.7% 31.9% 30

2 Michael Harris II 52 C +390 COOL 44 0.194 90.7 10.6% 23.2%vs RHP 400 18.0% 0.0% 13.3% 32

3 Drake Baldwin 51 C +370 COOL 48 0.176 91.6 11.8% 25.5%vs RHP 403 16.3% 0.0% 12.4% 39

4 Austin Riley 50 C +350 HOT 54 0.149 91.2 11.3% 18.3%vs RHP 407 9.8% 25.0% 15.1% 26

5 Ronald Acuna Jr. 48 D +370 · 63 0.196 90.4 11.7% 23.7%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 21.2% 38

6 Ozzie Albies 45 D +425 WARM 77 0.174 87.0 6.7% 14.0%vs RHP 386 14.5% 18.2% 12.7% 34

7 Mike Yastrzemski 44 D +400 WARM 87 0.165 90.6 8.8% 19.0%vs RHP 389 9.0% 0.0% 12.8% 17

8 Jim Jarvis 35 D — COOL 147 0.099 88.5 6.1% 7.1%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 17

9 Mauricio Dubon 34 D +950 WARM 153 0.130 86.9 6.4% 10.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 36

vs Martín Pérez · LHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton 58 C +305 COOL 21 0.278 90.3 10.1% 25.0%vs LHP 402 27.4% 0.0% 20.5% 7

2 Kody Clemens 54 C +500 COOL 36 0.228 92.4 8.2% 26.1%vs LHP 391 17.9% 20.0% 25.3% 26

3 Royce Lewis 47 D +425 · 70 0.186 90.2 8.4% 22.2%vs LHP 400 16.0% 8.3% 12.1% 33

4 Ryan Jeffers 46 D +500 COOL 74 0.209 89.0 7.9% 14.3%vs LHP 396 14.5% 0.0% 12.3% 26

5 Josh Bell 45 D +500 · 76 0.168 90.0 7.7% 14.7%vs LHP 405 11.3% 25.0% 14.7% 41

6 Brooks Lee 41 D +750 · 106 0.173 87.7 4.6% 13.3%vs LHP 371 15.0% 18.2% 11.9% 34

7 Alan Roden 33 D +900 COOL 166 0.055 87.6 6.1% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 13

8 Luke Keaschall 31 D +850 COOL 170 0.106 84.7 4.3% 3.9%vs LHP 371 6.6% 9.1% 6.5% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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