TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.41×

STL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 24 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:40p

+8 ↑

7:40p

+7 ↑

8:40p

+6 ↑

9:40p

+5 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +9

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 30 · vs Lowder ⟷ Tyler Stephenson conv 21 · vs Proxy → edge: Alec Burleson

ATTACK Rhett Lowder RHP · CIN

leak 73

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson — C+ ●●●●●

2 Jordan Walker — C+ ●●●○○

3 Nathan Church — D ●○○○○

FADE STL Bullpen Proxy · STL

leak 44

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Stephenson — C ●●●○○

2 Tyler Stephenson — C ●●●○○

3 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●○○

FADE CIN Bullpen Proxy · BAL

leak 57

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Alec Burleson — C+ ●●●●●

2 Jordan Walker — C+ ●●●○○

3 Nathan Church — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Alec Burleson: Match 23.1% · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Alec Burleson ✶ HOT vs Lowder Edge — 0.199 · 92.0 · 10.1% 36.4% 24.6% F B O C+ 61

· — Alec Burleson ✶ HOT vs Proxy — 0.199 · 92.0 · 11.3% 36.4% 23.1% F B O C+ 63

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Proxy — 0.164 · 91.4 · 12.3% 25.0% 17.4% F B O C 55

· — Jordan Walker COOL vs Proxy — 0.202 · 92.6 · 13.1% 18.2% 18.6% F B O C+ 64

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Proxy — 0.216 · 93.6 · 13.4% 16.7% 19.6% F B O C+ 63

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Lowder — 0.202 · 92.6 · 10.9% 18.2% 17.0% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Proxy — 0.217 · 90.2 · 13.4% 16.7% 17.0% F B O C+ 63

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Proxy — 0.212 · 88.7 · 11.9% 0.0% 25.1% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Lowder Edge — 0.124 · 85.9 · 7.8% 10.0% 9.0% F B O D 44

· — Nathan Church COOL vs Proxy — 0.124 · 85.9 · 6.7% 10.0% 8.4% F B O D 43

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Proxy — 0.155 · 88.0 · 9.7% 0.0% 15.9% F B O D 47

· — Ivan Herrera vs Proxy — 0.140 · 89.5 · 5.7% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 40

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Lowder Edge — 0.132 · 89.8 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 45

· — Jj Wetherholt vs Proxy — 0.132 · 89.8 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 44

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Lowder — 0.140 · 89.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 41

· — José Fermín COOL vs Proxy — 0.114 · 86.8 · 2.0% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 35

· — Masyn Winn vs Proxy — 0.081 · 88.2 · 3.1% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 33

· STL Masyn Winn vs Lowder — 0.081 · 88.2 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 35

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Lowder — 0.114 · 86.8 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.9% BRK 29.4% OFF 20.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Alec Burleson L Edge

12.0% 11.7% 10.0% 11.5% C+ 61 —

Jordan Walker R

13.4% 11.0% 16.2% 12.9% C+ 60 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

9.9% 4.2% 1.9% 7.3% D 45 —

Nathan Church L Edge

8.3% 6.3% 4.5% 6.7% D 44 —

Ivan Herrera R

6.1% 4.8% 6.7% 5.7% D 41 —

117

José Fermín R

2.4% 2.2% 0.0% 2.0% D 37 —

127

Masyn Winn R

3.2% 2.0% 5.9% 3.1% D 35 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Lowder's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for STL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for CIN Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Burleson Walker Cruz Cruz Stewart Stewart Stephenson Stephenson Walker Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs Lowder fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Alec Burleson — · 61

Alec Burleson — · 63

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 78°F open

↑

7 mph · out

69°F

6:40p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

66°F

7:40p

↑

6 mph · out

65°F

8:40p

↑

5 mph · out

64°F

9:40p

↑

5 mph · out

63°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.41× 78°F, wind 7 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Rhett Lowder · RHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Alec Burleson ✶ 61 C+ — HOT 11 0.199 92.0 10.1% 21.9%vs RHP 404 16.1% 36.4% 24.6% 31

2 Jordan Walker 60 C+ — COOL 15 0.202 92.6 10.9% 27.0%vs RHP 408 17.1% 18.2% 17.0% 32

3 Jj Wetherholt 45 D — · 71 0.132 89.8 8.2% 16.2%vs RHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 9.0% 36

4 Nathan Church 44 D — COOL 78 0.124 85.9 7.8% 16.7%vs RHP 384 8.2% 10.0% 9.0% 35

5 Ivan Herrera 41 D — WARM 92 0.140 89.5 7.2% 17.8%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 39

6 José Fermín 37 D — COOL 117 0.114 86.8 4.3% 7.7%vs RHP 388 5.6% 0.0% 6.8% 24

7 Masyn Winn 35 D — WARM 127 0.081 88.2 5.3% 8.7%vs RHP 390 3.4% 0.0% 6.9% 30

vs STL Bullpen Proxy 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 10 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 63 C+ — COOL 16 0.216 93.6 13.4% 24.4% 396 16.5% 16.7% 19.6% 32

2 Elly De La Cruz 63 C+ — COOL 17 0.216 93.6 13.4% 24.4% 396 16.5% 16.7% 19.6% 32

3 Sal Stewart 63 C+ — COOL 18 0.217 90.2 13.4% 21.7% 396 16.7% 16.7% 17.0% 36

4 Sal Stewart 63 C+ — COOL 19 0.217 90.2 13.4% 21.7% 396 16.7% 16.7% 17.0% 36

5 Tyler Stephenson 55 C — WARM 39 0.164 91.4 12.3% 13.6% 392 9.5% 25.0% 17.4% 24

6 Tyler Stephenson 55 C — WARM 40 0.164 91.4 12.3% 13.6% 392 9.5% 25.0% 17.4% 24

7 Eugenio Suarez 54 C — WARM 44 0.212 88.7 11.9% 22.2% 394 0.0% 0.0% 25.1% 26

8 Eugenio Suarez 54 C — WARM 45 0.212 88.7 11.9% 22.2% 394 0.0% 0.0% 25.1% 26

9 Matt Mclain 47 D — WARM 80 0.155 88.0 9.7% 11.3% 398 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 24

10 Matt Mclain 47 D — WARM 81 0.155 88.0 9.7% 11.3% 398 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 24

vs CIN Bullpen Proxy 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 64 C+ — COOL 12 0.202 92.6 13.1% 20.9% 408 17.1% 18.2% 18.6% 32

2 Alec Burleson ✶ 63 C+ — HOT 20 0.199 92.0 11.3% 16.0% 404 16.1% 36.4% 23.1% 31

3 Jj Wetherholt 44 D — · 100 0.132 89.8 7.3% 13.0% 391 16.7% 0.0% 8.7% 36

4 Nathan Church 43 D — COOL 106 0.124 85.9 6.7% 11.1% 384 8.2% 10.0% 8.4% 35

5 Ivan Herrera 40 D — WARM 119 0.140 89.5 5.7% 12.7% 402 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 39

6 José Fermín 35 D — COOL 137 0.114 86.8 2.0% 7.4% 388 5.6% 0.0% 7.9% 24

7 Masyn Winn 33 D — WARM 143 0.081 88.2 3.1% 4.3% 390 3.4% 0.0% 7.5% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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