TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ CHC

Playable air · 1.06×

CWS @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 8:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 3 mph in 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

7:05p

+3 ↑

8:05p

+5 ↑

9:05p

+6 ↑

10:05p

+7 ↑

11:05p

conditions build late — the 11:05p window peaks +7

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 36 · vs Imanaga ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 27 · vs Castillo → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 93

1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.77 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +305 B ●●●●●

2 Miguel Vargas +305 C+ ●●●●●

3 Chase Meidroth +625 D ●●●○○

FADE Luis Castillo RHP · SEA

leak 80

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +290 C+ ●●●●○

2 Seiya Suzuki +390 C ●●●●○

3 Alex Bregman +625 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Imanaga +305 0.304 · 94.2 · 14.1% 36.4% 35.3% F B O B 76

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Imanaga Edge +305 0.248 · 90.7 · 11.7% 27.3% 33.8% F B O C+ 69

· — Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Castillo Edge +290 0.253 · 90.3 · 10.7% 23.1% 30.7% F B O C+ 66

· — Seiya Suzuki vs Castillo +390 0.214 · 89.0 · 9.9% 25.0% 24.1% F B O C 59

· — Ian Happ COOL vs Castillo Edge +425 0.197 · 89.3 · 10.2% 16.7% 23.2% F B O C 58

· — Dansby Swanson vs Castillo — 0.187 · 89.5 · 8.4% 16.7% 19.2% F B O C 53

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Imanaga +350 0.221 · 88.9 · 10.8% 8.3% 18.9% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Imanaga — 0.175 · 88.9 · 9.0% 0.0% 12.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· — Alex Bregman HOT vs Castillo +625 0.152 · 88.3 · 6.6% 23.1% 18.0% F B O D 47

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Imanaga Edge +625 0.139 · 87.8 · 6.6% 20.0% 17.2% F B O D 45

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Imanaga — 0.154 · 87.3 · 6.9% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 45

· — Carson Kelly COOL vs Castillo +700 0.112 · 86.9 · 7.2% 12.5% 7.6% F B O D 41

· — Michael Busch COOL vs Castillo Edge +390 0.140 · 88.1 · 9.1% 8.3% 9.3% F B O D 47

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Imanaga Edge +525 0.142 · 89.2 · 6.2% 8.3% 9.3% F B O D 43

· — Nico Hoerner vs Castillo — 0.101 · 86.0 · 3.2% 8.3% 7.8% F B O D 34

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Imanaga — 0.130 · 87.6 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.5% ← leak OFF 32.7% BRK 19.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Munetaka Murakami L

22.7% 17.4% 18.5% 20.5% B 76 +305

Neutral · 3

Miguel Vargas R Edge

16.3% 13.9% 11.2% 14.5% C+ 69 +305

Colson Montgomery L

12.0% 14.6% 11.3% 12.2% C+ 60 +350

Andrew Benintendi L

11.9% 5.6% 4.5% 8.5% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.1% 4.0% 6.0% 4.6% D 45 +625

Tristan Peters L

6.1% 0.0% 5.1% 5.0% D 45 —

Braden Montgomery S Edge

5.4% 2.3% 3.4% 4.1% D 43 +525

Sam Antonacci L

7.5% 0.0% 5.1% 5.8% D 43 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.5% usage) carries Imanaga's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.7% ← leak BRK 25.7% OFF 13.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

10.6% 13.5% 13.4% 12.0% C+ 66 +290

Seiya Suzuki R

11.5% 9.3% 13.0% 10.8% C 59 +390

Ian Happ S Edge

14.5% 14.5% 1.4% 11.2% C 58 +425

Dansby Swanson R

7.6% 6.5% 11.8% 7.7% C 53 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Alex Bregman R

3.5% 6.9% 6.1% 4.6% D 47 +625

Michael Busch L Edge

12.0% 3.8% 2.0% 8.7% D 47 +390

Carson Kelly R

6.4% 4.1% 5.6% 5.6% D 41 +700

132

Nico Hoerner R

1.1% 0.9% 2.1% 1.1% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.7% usage) carries Castillo's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Montgomery Meidroth Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Happ Swanson Bregman

Legend

attack side — vs Imanaga fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Munetaka Murakami +305 · 76

Miguel Vargas +305 · 69

Pete Crow-Armstrong +290 · 66

Seiya Suzuki +390 · 59

Alex Bregman +625 · 47

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 3 mph in 74°F open

↑

2 mph · cross

76°F

7:05p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

75°F

8:05p

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

9:05p

↑

4 mph · out

71°F

10:05p

↑

5 mph · out

70°F

11:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 74°F, wind 3 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.77 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 76 B +305 · 1 0.304 94.2 14.1% 27.8%vs LHP 403 20.6% 36.4% 35.3% 25

2 Miguel Vargas 69 C+ +305 · 5 0.248 90.7 11.7% 28.9%vs LHP 393 21.9% 27.3% 33.8% 33

3 Colson Montgomery 60 C+ +350 COOL 13 0.221 88.9 10.8% 27.6%vs LHP 399 21.8% 8.3% 18.9% 28

4 Andrew Benintendi 50 C — COOL 47 0.175 88.9 9.0% 12.6% 389 13.8% 0.0% 12.4% 20

5 Chase Meidroth 45 D +625 COOL 68 0.139 87.8 6.6% 19.1%vs LHP 379 8.7% 20.0% 17.2% 30

6 Tristan Peters 45 D — COOL 72 0.154 87.3 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 377 8.1% 16.7% 8.8% 20

7 Braden Montgomery 43 D +525 WARM 84 0.142 89.2 6.2% 11.1%vs LHP 383 5.6% 8.3% 9.3% 28

8 Sam Antonacci 43 D — COOL 87 0.130 87.6 7.5% 0.0%vs LHP 390 9.5% 0.0% 7.4% 32

vs Luis Castillo · RHP 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 66 C+ +290 WARM 8 0.253 90.3 10.7% 22.5%vs RHP 396 20.0% 23.1% 30.7% 36

2 Seiya Suzuki 59 C +390 · 21 0.214 89.0 9.9% 22.2%vs RHP 404 16.7% 25.0% 24.1% 39

3 Ian Happ 58 C +425 COOL 23 0.197 89.3 10.2% 24.3%vs RHP 402 17.1% 16.7% 23.2% 26

4 Dansby Swanson 53 C — · 34 0.187 89.5 8.4% 17.4%vs RHP 405 12.3% 16.7% 19.2% 27

5 Alex Bregman 47 D +625 HOT 59 0.152 88.3 6.6% 19.3%vs RHP 387 10.7% 23.1% 18.0% 43

6 Michael Busch 47 D +390 COOL 63 0.140 88.1 9.1% 13.4%vs RHP 401 12.0% 8.3% 9.3% 39

7 Carson Kelly 41 D +700 COOL 98 0.112 86.9 7.2% 6.7%vs RHP 413 7.0% 12.5% 7.6% 23

8 Nico Hoerner 34 D — WARM 132 0.101 86.0 3.2% 7.7%vs RHP 381 5.7% 8.3% 7.8% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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