TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ NYM

Playable air · 1.05×

SD @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 6 mph in 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

7:10p

-5 ↑

8:10p

-5 ↑

9:10p

-6 ↑

10:10p

-5 ↑

11:10p

the 8:10p window peaks -5

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 20 · vs McLean ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 23 · vs Buehler → edge: Francisco Lindor

ATTACK Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 78

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill +500 D ●●●○○

2 Gavin Sheets +700 D ●●●○○

3 Xander Bogaerts +950 D ●●○○○

FADE Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 75

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor +425 C ●●●●○

2 Carson Benge +750 D ●●●○○

3 Brett Baty +575 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Francisco Lindor: Match 21.0% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Francisco Lindor ✶ vs Buehler Edge +425 0.198 · 91.5 · 9.1% 25.0% 21.0% F B O C 51

· SD Ty France COOL vs McLean +700 0.226 · 92.3 · 8.6% 7.7% 16.0% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· NYM Carson Benge vs Buehler Edge +750 0.144 · 89.5 · 8.0% 27.3% 14.5% F B O D 44

· SD Jackson Merrill vs McLean Edge +500 0.172 · 90.5 · 8.9% 23.1% 17.7% F B O D 48

· SD Gavin Sheets vs McLean Edge +700 0.176 · 87.6 · 7.1% 16.7% 21.8% F B O D 44

· NYM Brett Baty vs Buehler Edge +575 0.114 · 89.8 · 8.6% 25.0% 13.0% F B O D 41

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Buehler +525 0.144 · 86.4 · 7.6% 20.0% 13.1% F B O D 42

· SD Xander Bogaerts HOT vs McLean +950 0.109 · 88.6 · 6.6% 15.4% 10.3% F B O D 35

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Buehler +700 0.116 · 89.3 · 7.1% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 38

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Buehler +475 0.180 · 90.1 · 11.8% 0.0% 16.9% F B O D 46

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs McLean Edge +950 0.065 · 87.4 · 5.2% 7.7% 7.5% F B O D 28

· SD Fernando Tatis vs McLean — 0.144 · 92.4 · 9.0% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 38

· SD Manny Machado vs McLean +475 0.197 · 90.8 · 8.5% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 47

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Buehler Edge +750 0.129 · 89.7 · 8.1% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 36

· SD Freddy Fermin vs McLean — 0.120 · 87.6 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.5% ← leak BRK 30.0% OFF 6.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Ty France R

10.4% 10.8% 10.0% 10.5% C 50 +700

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

13.6% 10.9% 6.8% 11.4% D 48 +500

Manny Machado R

12.1% 6.1% 9.3% 10.1% D 47 +475

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.9% 6.0% 1.7% 7.3% D 44 +700

111

Fernando Tatis R

10.0% 13.6% 16.3% 11.7% D 38 —

126

Xander Bogaerts R

7.2% 4.6% 3.4% 6.2% D 35 +950

136

Freddy Fermin R

3.1% 5.4% 10.0% 4.1% D 32 —

149

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

4.2% 2.6% 3.6% 3.8% D 28 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.5% usage) carries McLean's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.4% BRK 27.3% OFF 10.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.5% 8.6% 6.5% 9.9% C 51 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R

17.0% 15.5% 17.4% 16.5% D 46 +475

Carson Benge L Edge

7.2% 9.4% 6.7% 7.6% D 44 +750

Marcus Semien R

9.6% 2.1% 7.1% 6.9% D 42 +525

Brett Baty L Edge

8.1% 13.0% 4.1% 8.4% D 41 +575

114

Bo Bichette R

5.0% 10.1% 0.0% 6.0% D 38 +700

120

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.7% 11.3% 2.4% 8.1% D 36 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Buehler's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Merrill Sheets Lindor Benge Semien Baty

Legend

attack side — vs McLean fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Francisco Lindor +425 · 51

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 6 mph in 81°F open

-6

↑

6 mph · in

81°F

7:10p

-5

↑

5 mph · in

80°F

8:10p · peak

-5

↑

5 mph · in

78°F

9:10p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

77°F

10:10p

-5

↑

6 mph · in

75°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 81°F, wind 6 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 50 C +700 COOL 46 0.226 92.3 8.6% 29.2%vs RHP 392 15.9% 7.7% 16.0% 37

2 Jackson Merrill 48 D +500 WARM 54 0.172 90.5 8.9% 20.5%vs RHP 412 15.4% 23.1% 17.7% 39

3 Manny Machado 47 D +475 WARM 60 0.197 90.8 8.5% 27.1%vs RHP 397 17.6% 0.0% 13.7% 41

4 Gavin Sheets 44 D +700 WARM 79 0.176 87.6 7.1% 30.2%vs RHP 397 11.0% 16.7% 21.8% 19

5 Fernando Tatis 38 D — WARM 111 0.144 92.4 9.0% 13.9%vs RHP 413 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 42

6 Xander Bogaerts 35 D +950 HOT 126 0.109 88.6 6.6% 17.2%vs RHP 400 8.6% 15.4% 10.3% 32

7 Freddy Fermin 32 D — WARM 136 0.120 87.6 5.4% 6.7%vs RHP 382 2.9% 0.0% 7.0% 17

8 Jake Cronenworth 28 D +950 COOL 149 0.065 87.4 5.2% 10.0%vs RHP 389 2.6% 7.7% 7.5% 42

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor ✶ 51 C +425 · 41 0.198 91.5 9.1% 18.6%vs RHP 397 13.3% 25.0% 21.0% 33

2 Francisco Alvarez 46 D +475 · 64 0.180 90.1 11.8% 28.2%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 17

3 Carson Benge 44 D +750 WARM 75 0.144 89.5 8.0% 14.9%vs RHP 401 10.1% 27.3% 14.5% 35

4 Marcus Semien 42 D +525 COOL 88 0.144 86.4 7.6% 17.5%vs RHP 391 12.0% 20.0% 13.1% 31

5 Brett Baty 41 D +575 WARM 95 0.114 89.8 8.6% 13.3%vs RHP 397 7.1% 25.0% 13.0% 16

6 Bo Bichette 38 D +700 WARM 114 0.116 89.3 7.1% 10.1%vs RHP 389 9.1% 16.7% 8.8% 38

7 A.J. Ewing 36 D +750 WARM 120 0.129 89.7 8.1% 11.9%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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