TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.66×

LAD @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 12 mph out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+14 ↑

6:40p

+13 ↑

7:40p

+11 ↑

8:40p

+11 ↑

9:40p

+6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +14

Best of game Max Muncy conv 26 · vs Sugano ⟷ Mickey Moniak conv 18 · vs Snell → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · COL

leak 93

1.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy +255 C+ ●●●●○

2 Shohei Ohtani +174 B ●●●●○

3 Andy Pages +330 C ●●●○○

FADE Blake Snell LHP · LAD

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.86 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mickey Moniak +425 C ●●●○○

2 Hunter Goodman — C ●●○○○

3 Ezequiel Tovar +750 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: 16.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy vs Sugano Edge +255 0.238 · 90.3 · 13.4% 23.5% 29.2% F B O C+ 69

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ COOL vs Sugano Edge +174 0.252 · 93.4 · 14.7% 15.4% 30.8% F B O B 72

· LAD Andy Pages vs Sugano +330 0.185 · 89.0 · 10.1% 23.1% 18.6% F B O C 57

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Snell +425 0.271 · 89.4 · 7.8% 18.2% 17.4% F B O C 54

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Sugano +390 0.173 · 90.5 · 10.0% 15.4% 11.5% F B O C 53

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Snell Edge — 0.290 · 90.6 · 9.4% 12.5% 14.2% F B O C 59

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Sugano Edge +350 0.164 · 89.8 · 10.8% 0.0% 11.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Sugano Edge +390 0.138 · 88.8 · 9.0% 16.7% 10.5% F B O D 48

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Snell Edge +750 0.124 · 87.3 · 5.8% 11.1% 5.6% F B O D 35

· COL Willi Castro vs Snell Edge +625 0.155 · 87.6 · 6.7% 9.1% 7.0% F B O D 40

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Snell +850 0.200 · 84.9 · 5.2% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 41

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Sugano +350 0.149 · 89.6 · 10.7% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 47

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Snell +850 0.157 · 83.9 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 35

· COL Troy Johnston vs Snell — 0.111 · 89.6 · 3.4% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.5% ← leak BRK 27.0% OFF 21.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

20.0% 10.0% 17.0% 16.4% B 72 +174

Neutral · 4

Max Muncy L Edge

16.3% 14.8% 7.6% 13.7% C+ 69 +255

Andy Pages R

7.3% 8.5% 8.3% 7.7% C 57 +330

Mookie Betts R

9.3% 3.1% 8.6% 7.8% C 53 +390

Freddie Freeman L Edge

9.0% 8.6% 8.5% 8.8% C 52 +350

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Kyle Tucker L Edge

9.0% 3.1% 1.4% 6.2% D 48 +390

Teoscar Hernandez R

8.2% 11.4% 6.9% 8.7% D 47 +350

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.5% usage) carries Sugano's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.8% BRK 34.8% OFF 17.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R Edge

18.9% 15.7% 9.4% 16.7% C 59 —

Mickey Moniak L

10.3% 21.7% 2.0% 10.8% C 54 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jake Mccarthy L

6.1% 1.3% 5.9% 4.9% D 41 +850

105

Willi Castro S Edge

11.0% 5.8% 5.3% 8.4% D 40 +625

124

Tj Rumfield L

5.3% 1.8% 5.5% 4.2% D 35 +850

128

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

6.1% 6.7% 7.1% 6.4% D 35 +750

148

Troy Johnston L

2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 2.2% D 29 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Snell's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Pages Betts Tucker Goodman Moniak

Legend

attack side — vs Sugano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Max Muncy +255 · 69

Andy Pages +330 · 57

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.03× Wind 12 mph out 85°F open

+14

↑

13 mph · out

86°F

6:40p · peak

+13

↑

12 mph · out

82°F

7:40p

+11

↑

10 mph · out

78°F

8:40p

+11

↑

9 mph · out

76°F

9:40p

↑

7 mph · out

74°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.66× 85°F, wind 12 mph SE (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP 1.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 72 B +174 COOL 3 0.252 93.4 14.7% 23.4%vs RHP 403 19.2% 15.4% 30.8% 38

2 Max Muncy 69 C+ +255 · 6 0.238 90.3 13.4% 25.9%vs RHP 412 19.3% 23.5% 29.2% 40

3 Andy Pages 57 C +330 WARM 25 0.185 89.0 10.1% 19.7%vs RHP 391 14.8% 23.1% 18.6% 41

4 Mookie Betts 53 C +390 · 36 0.173 90.5 10.0% 17.9%vs RHP 390 11.0% 15.4% 11.5% 41

5 Freddie Freeman 52 C +350 COOL 38 0.164 89.8 10.8% 15.9%vs RHP 398 10.7% 0.0% 11.8% 35

6 Kyle Tucker 48 D +390 COOL 56 0.138 88.8 9.0% 11.7%vs RHP 392 7.8% 16.7% 10.5% 36

7 Teoscar Hernandez 47 D +350 WARM 58 0.149 89.6 10.7% 18.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 26

vs Blake Snell · LHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.86 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 59 C — COOL 22 0.290 90.6 9.4% 32.0%vs LHP 410 23.8% 12.5% 14.2% 22

2 Mickey Moniak 54 C +425 WARM 30 0.271 89.4 7.8% 16.7%vs LHP 417 16.9% 18.2% 17.4% 28

3 Jake Mccarthy 41 D +850 COOL 93 0.200 84.9 5.2% 28.6%vs LHP 416 12.5% 0.0% 11.2% 47

4 Willi Castro 40 D +625 · 105 0.155 87.6 6.7% 11.1%vs LHP 411 10.6% 9.1% 7.0% 34

5 Tj Rumfield 35 D +850 WARM 124 0.157 83.9 4.9% 8.0%vs LHP 410 6.2% 0.0% 6.8% 33

6 Ezequiel Tovar 35 D +750 WARM 128 0.124 87.3 5.8% 6.9%vs LHP 408 7.5% 11.1% 5.6% 25

7 Troy Johnston 29 D — WARM 148 0.111 89.6 3.4% 4.8%vs LHP 415 1.1% 0.0% 5.3% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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