TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.96×

DET @ PIT

PNC Park · 7:05p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 4 mph out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

7:05p

+2 ↑

8:05p

+2 ↑

9:05p

+2 ↑

10:05p

+1 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +3

Best of game Brandon Lowe conv 23 · vs Valdez ⟷ Dillon Dingler conv 24 · vs Mlodzinski → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Framber Valdez LHP · DET

leak 46

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brandon Lowe +525 C ●●●○○

2 Jared Triolo +950 D ●○○○○

3 Jake Mangum — D ●○○○○

FADE Carmen Mlodzinski RHP · PIT

leak 25

0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dillon Dingler +500 C ●●●●○

2 Gleyber Torres +850 D ●●○○○

3 Colt Keith +750 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 10.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler ✶ vs Mlodzinski +500 0.240 · 88.9 · 8.9% 25.0% 24.0% F B O C 56

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Valdez +525 0.228 · 91.1 · 8.9% 23.1% 22.2% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Mlodzinski +850 0.134 · 86.0 · 7.4% 16.7% 7.4% F B O D 38

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Mlodzinski Edge +750 0.146 · 88.7 · 7.2% 11.1% 7.7% F B O D 38

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Valdez Edge +950 0.073 · 87.7 · 4.1% 11.1% 6.0% F B O D 29

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Valdez Edge — 0.092 · 85.4 · 3.4% 7.7% 6.9% F B O D 29

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Mlodzinski +500 0.192 · 89.4 · 9.8% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 47

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Valdez Edge +575 0.169 · 90.6 · 8.2% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 43

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Valdez — 0.154 · 86.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 39

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Mlodzinski Edge +525 0.137 · 87.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 37

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Valdez Edge — 0.092 · 86.2 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 29

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Mlodzinski Edge +950 0.105 · 85.7 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.4% ← leak OFF 25.8% BRK 25.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dillon Dingler R

12.5% 6.7% 8.9% 10.8% C 56 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R

13.7% 12.5% 11.3% 13.0% D 47 +500

112

Gleyber Torres R

8.9% 0.0% 6.0% 7.3% D 38 +850

115

Colt Keith L Edge

6.6% 3.2% 13.6% 7.0% D 38 +750

116

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

7.8% 1.6% 6.6% 6.5% D 37 +525

146

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.4% 0.0% 1.7% 2.4% D 29 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.4% usage) carries Mlodzinski's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.4% ← leak BRK 33.7% OFF 18.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Brandon Lowe L

16.6% 8.0% 10.3% 12.7% C 55 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

10.8% 13.4% 8.6% 11.0% D 43 +575

109

Spencer Horwitz L

7.3% 6.5% 10.7% 7.5% D 39 —

144

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% D 29 —

145

Nick Gonzales R Edge

2.3% 4.7% 0.0% 2.8% D 29 —

147

Jared Triolo R Edge

3.2% 2.6% 0.0% 2.7% D 29 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.4% usage) carries Valdez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Valdez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Dillon Dingler +500 · 56

Brandon Lowe +525 · 55

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 4 mph out 75°F open

↑

4 mph · out

73°F

7:05p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

72°F

8:05p

↑

4 mph · out

71°F

9:05p

↑

4 mph · out

71°F

10:05p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

70°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 75°F, wind 4 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Carmen Mlodzinski · RHP 0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 56 C +500 · 26 0.240 88.9 8.9% 32.0%vs RHP 398 20.0% 25.0% 24.0% 40

2 Spencer Torkelson 47 D +500 · 61 0.192 89.4 9.8% 23.6%vs RHP 394 15.0% 0.0% 11.6% 30

3 Gleyber Torres 38 D +850 COOL 112 0.134 86.0 7.4% 15.8%vs RHP 393 10.3% 16.7% 7.4% 42

4 Colt Keith 38 D +750 COOL 115 0.146 88.7 7.2% 12.3%vs RHP 389 6.9% 11.1% 7.7% 25

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 37 D +525 COOL 116 0.137 87.9 7.0% 9.0%vs RHP 396 20.0% 0.0% 6.9% 39

6 Zach Mckinstry 29 D +950 COOL 146 0.105 85.7 4.2% 6.3%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 28

vs Framber Valdez · LHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 55 C +525 WARM 27 0.228 91.1 8.9% 16.1%vs LHP 392 16.8% 23.1% 22.2% 26

2 Bryan Reynolds 43 D +575 COOL 83 0.169 90.6 8.2% 18.8%vs LHP 409 11.5% 0.0% 10.5% 34

3 Spencer Horwitz 39 D — COOL 109 0.154 86.8 6.8% 14.3%vs LHP 395 10.4% 0.0% 8.6% 29

4 Jake Mangum 29 D — WARM 144 0.092 85.4 3.4% 7.1%vs LHP 393 4.9% 7.7% 6.9% 39

5 Nick Gonzales 29 D — COOL 145 0.092 86.2 4.1% 3.6%vs LHP 397 6.8% 0.0% 6.5% 33

6 Jared Triolo 29 D +950 WARM 147 0.073 87.7 4.1% 0.0%vs LHP 407 1.5% 11.1% 6.0% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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