TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.89×

AZ @ BOS

Fenway Park · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 4 mph cross 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

7:10p

-6 ↑

8:10p

-6 ↑

9:10p

-6 ↑

10:10p

-6 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at -5

Best of game Wilyer Abreu conv 27 · vs Bratt ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 24 · vs Proxy → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK Mitch Bratt LHP · AZ

leak 82

1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Wilyer Abreu +400 C ●●●●○

2 Willson Contreras +305 C ●●○○○

3 Caleb Durbin +700 D ●●○○○

FADE BOS Bullpen Proxy · BOS

leak 39

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +625 D ●●●●○

2 Ketel Marte +425 D ●●○○○

3 Tim Tawa +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: 13.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Wilyer Abreu ✶ vs Bratt +400 0.216 · 89.9 · 9.6% 33.3% 20.8% F B O C 55

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Proxy +475 0.244 · 91.6 · 12.2% 15.4% 12.3% F B O C 53

· BOS Willson Contreras COOL vs Bratt Edge +305 0.244 · 90.1 · 10.2% 10.0% 14.9% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Proxy +625 0.203 · 85.1 · 7.1% 30.8% 17.7% F B O D 45

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Proxy +425 0.197 · 90.2 · 10.2% 16.7% 14.6% F B O D 47

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Proxy +750 0.157 · 90.4 · 7.8% 14.3% 13.6% F B O D 38

· BOS Caleb Durbin vs Bratt Edge +700 0.153 · 83.8 · 4.7% 16.7% 8.2% F B O D 36

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Bratt +700 0.149 · 89.7 · 8.4% 15.4% 9.2% F B O D 43

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Proxy +950 0.141 · 87.3 · 3.2% 10.0% 10.3% F B O D 29

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Bratt Edge +500 0.180 · 86.3 · 6.3% 8.3% 10.1% F B O D 41

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Proxy +850 0.149 · 89.2 · 6.7% 9.1% 7.0% F B O D 35

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Bratt Edge +700 0.174 · 88.4 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 41

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Proxy — 0.128 · 87.3 · 3.2% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 27

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Proxy +950 0.111 · 88.3 · 7.0% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for BOS Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 49.8% ← leak BRK 40.4% OFF 9.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Wilyer Abreu L

11.9% 16.3% 12.7% 13.1% C 55 +400

Willson Contreras R Edge

11.7% 15.9% 21.2% 13.9% C 55 +305

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jarren Duran L

11.9% 7.1% 7.5% 9.6% D 43 +700

Ceddanne Rafaela R Edge

3.6% 5.8% 12.5% 5.5% D 41 +500

Andruw Monasterio R Edge

7.5% 7.4% 13.3% 7.9% D 41 +700

121

Caleb Durbin R Edge

3.2% 2.3% 3.0% 3.0% D 36 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.8% usage) carries Bratt's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Marte Arenado Tawa Abreu

Legend

attack side — vs Bratt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Wilyer Abreu +400 · 55

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 4 mph cross 71°F open

-5

↑

3 mph · cross

70°F

7:10p · peak

-6

↑

4 mph · in

70°F

8:10p

-6

↑

3 mph · in

70°F

9:10p

-6

↑

3 mph · in

70°F

10:10p

-6

↑

3 mph · in

70°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.89× 71°F, wind 4 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs BOS Bullpen Proxy 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 53 C +475 COOL 50 0.244 91.6 12.2% 13.7% 402 14.3% 15.4% 12.3% 42

2 Ketel Marte 47 D +425 COOL 82 0.197 90.2 10.2% 15.3% 409 15.2% 16.7% 14.6% 28

3 Nolan Arenado 45 D +625 · 91 0.203 85.1 7.1% 15.5% 390 15.7% 30.8% 17.7% 37

4 Tim Tawa 38 D +750 WARM 129 0.157 90.4 7.8% 15.2% 402 7.4% 14.3% 13.6% 35

5 Gabriel Moreno 35 D +850 · 138 0.149 89.2 6.7% 9.0% 400 9.0% 9.1% 7.0% 37

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 30 D +950 COOL 150 0.111 88.3 7.0% 4.7% 419 2.9% 0.0% 5.7% 31

7 Ildemaro Vargas 29 D +950 WARM 151 0.141 87.3 3.2% 9.3% 399 5.6% 10.0% 10.3% 26

8 Geraldo Perdomo 27 D — COOL 152 0.128 87.3 3.2% 7.8% 383 7.3% 0.0% 6.0% 40

vs Mitch Bratt · LHP 1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 55 C +400 WARM 28 0.216 89.9 9.6% 15.2%vs LHP 406 16.7% 33.3% 20.8% 37

2 Willson Contreras 55 C +305 COOL 29 0.244 90.1 10.2% 25.9%vs LHP 406 19.5% 10.0% 14.9% 22

3 Jarren Duran 43 D +700 WARM 85 0.149 89.7 8.4% 5.6%vs LHP 399 12.8% 15.4% 9.2% 32

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 41 D +500 COOL 94 0.180 86.3 6.3% 18.5%vs LHP 382 13.4% 8.3% 10.1% 42

5 Andruw Monasterio 41 D +700 COOL 96 0.174 88.4 7.6% 20.0%vs LHP 390 12.5% 0.0% 9.9% 40

6 Caleb Durbin 36 D +700 WARM 121 0.153 83.8 4.7% 14.3%vs LHP 376 9.5% 16.7% 8.2% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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