TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.25×

MIA @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 6 mph cross 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+3 ↑

8:40p

+2 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +3

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 28 · vs Junk ⟷ Heriberto Hernández conv 19 · vs Sánchez → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 85

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber +186 B ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +320 C+ ●●●○○

3 Brandon Marsh +575 C ●●○○○

FADE Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 6

0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Heriberto Hernández +625 C ●●●○○

2 Owen Caissie — C ●●○○○

3 Javier Sanoja +950 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 18.2% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Junk Edge +186 0.290 · 93.3 · 11.4% 15.4% 40.5% F B O B 73

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Junk Edge +320 0.239 · 90.2 · 9.0% 15.4% 28.7% F B O C+ 64

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Sánchez Edge +625 0.220 · 91.7 · 9.6% 0.0% 37.5% F B O C 52

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Sánchez — 0.207 · 91.1 · 10.6% 10.0% 15.4% F B O C 54

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Junk Edge +575 0.167 · 89.7 · 7.8% 9.1% 13.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Sánchez Edge +950 0.132 · 86.9 · 4.0% 11.1% 10.2% F B O D 37

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Junk +500 0.151 · 88.4 · 6.7% 9.1% 11.6% F B O D 48

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Junk +700 0.135 · 90.4 · 6.2% 9.1% 9.5% F B O D 45

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Junk Edge +525 0.156 · 89.5 · 6.7% 7.7% 10.5% F B O D 47

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Sánchez +950 0.108 · 86.8 · 5.0% 9.1% 7.4% F B O D 36

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.102 · 87.0 · 5.2% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 35

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Sánchez Edge +850 0.145 · 89.1 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 41

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Junk +575 0.123 · 89.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 40

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Junk Edge — 0.087 · 87.2 · 3.3% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.2% ← leak OFF 37.2% BRK 19.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Owen Caissie L

17.1% 18.8% 9.8% 15.4% C 54 —

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

11.5% 16.7% 12.3% 12.2% C 52 +625

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Otto Lopez R Edge

8.7% 1.6% 3.9% 5.9% D 41 +850

118

Javier Sanoja R Edge

2.5% 0.0% 2.2% 2.1% D 37 +950

123

Jakob Marsee L

3.3% 7.9% 1.9% 3.6% D 36 +950

125

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.4% 2.8% 2.4% 3.6% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.2% usage) carries Sánchez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 41.7% ← leak FB 40.5% OFF 17.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

15.0% 17.6% 30.0% 18.2% B 73 +186

Neutral · 2

Bryce Harper L Edge

14.4% 11.3% 6.1% 11.4% C+ 64 +320

Brandon Marsh L Edge

13.5% 7.3% 4.1% 8.5% C 51 +575

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Trea Turner R

4.5% 8.2% 2.5% 6.3% D 48 +500

Bryson Stott L Edge

4.0% 8.0% 4.9% 6.2% D 47 +525

Alec Bohm R

6.5% 4.4% 8.8% 5.4% D 45 +700

102

J.T. Realmuto R

6.8% 3.8% 4.5% 4.6% D 40 +575

131

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.2% 2.1% 0.0% 1.5% D 34 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (41.7% usage) carries Junk's damage — BRK is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hernández Schwarber Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Junk fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.13× Wind 6 mph cross 80°F open

↑

6 mph · cross

79°F

6:40p · peak

↑

6 mph · cross

78°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · cross

76°F

8:40p

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · cross

74°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 80°F, wind 6 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 54 C — COOL 31 0.207 91.1 10.6% 23.2% 398 14.9% 10.0% 15.4% 18

2 Heriberto Hernández 52 C +625 · 37 0.220 91.7 9.6% 45.0%vs LHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 37.5% 24

3 Otto Lopez 41 D +850 COOL 97 0.145 89.1 6.7% 8.0%vs LHP 402 6.7% 0.0% 9.8% 47

4 Javier Sanoja 37 D +950 WARM 118 0.132 86.9 4.0% 17.6%vs LHP 383 6.2% 11.1% 10.2% 30

5 Jakob Marsee 36 D +950 COOL 123 0.108 86.8 5.0% 11.1%vs LHP 380 7.1% 9.1% 7.4% 35

6 Xavier Edwards 35 D — COOL 125 0.102 87.0 5.2% 22.2%vs LHP 396 4.2% 0.0% 10.8% 37

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 73 B +186 · 2 0.290 93.3 11.4% 43.1%vs RHP 402 22.6% 15.4% 40.5% 31

2 Bryce Harper 64 C+ +320 COOL 10 0.239 90.2 9.0% 35.6%vs RHP 403 19.2% 15.4% 28.7% 31

3 Brandon Marsh 51 C +575 · 42 0.167 89.7 7.8% 20.6%vs RHP 391 12.5% 9.1% 13.2% 34

4 Trea Turner 48 D +500 COOL 55 0.151 88.4 6.7% 20.6%vs RHP 392 13.8% 9.1% 11.6% 37

5 Bryson Stott 47 D +525 COOL 62 0.156 89.5 6.7% 9.1%vs RHP 389 7.8% 7.7% 10.5% 43

6 Alec Bohm 45 D +700 WARM 74 0.135 90.4 6.2% 13.7%vs RHP 396 11.3% 9.1% 9.5% 42

7 J.T. Realmuto 40 D +575 COOL 102 0.123 89.8 5.8% 17.1%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 31

8 Justin Crawford 34 D — WARM 131 0.087 87.2 3.3% 4.5%vs RHP 382 2.2% 0.0% 8.2% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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