TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ TB

Neutral air · 1.05×

BAL @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 34 · vs Young ⟷ Colton Cowser conv 26 · vs McClanahan → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 56

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Jonathan Aranda +500 D ●○○○○

3 Richie Palacios +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Shane McClanahan LHP · TB

leak 12

0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.46 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colton Cowser — D ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +400 C+ ●●●●○

3 Gunnar Henderson +625 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Young +305 0.266 · 92.9 · 9.2% 33.3% 34.2% F B O C+ 66

· BAL Pete Alonso vs McClanahan Edge +400 0.223 · 94.2 · 10.8% 25.0% 22.2% F B O C+ 60

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs McClanahan Edge +425 0.216 · 92.3 · 9.8% 11.1% 16.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser HOT vs McClanahan — 0.136 · 87.1 · 9.7% 37.5% 15.0% F B O D 48

· BAL Gunnar Henderson HOT vs McClanahan +625 0.180 · 89.8 · 8.0% 16.7% 16.1% F B O D 49

· BAL Leody Taveras vs McClanahan Edge +750 0.137 · 87.7 · 6.2% 11.1% 10.2% F B O D 38

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Young Edge +500 0.142 · 90.9 · 8.0% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 44

· TB Richie Palacios vs Young Edge +950 0.117 · 86.2 · 5.0% 9.1% 7.9% F B O D 36

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Young Edge +950 0.081 · 85.4 · 3.8% 8.3% 7.7% F B O D 31

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Young +575 0.160 · 90.9 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 40

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Young Edge +575 0.152 · 87.6 · 4.7% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 40

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Young — 0.104 · 85.5 · 3.8% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 33

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Young Edge — 0.056 · 83.9 · — 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 38.2% BRK 32.8% OFF 29.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R Edge

15.3% 10.3% 15.8% 13.9% C+ 60 +400

Coby Mayo R Edge

9.5% 12.5% 15.4% 11.4% C 53 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Gunnar Henderson L

8.0% 6.5% 7.9% 7.6% D 49 +625

Colton Cowser L

15.0% 12.8% 2.2% 11.0% D 48 —

113

Leody Taveras S Edge

5.0% 7.4% 0.0% 4.5% D 38 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads McClanahan's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.2% ← leak BRK 27.0% OFF 19.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.0% 12.1% 7.7% 13.5% C+ 66 +305

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.6% 13.3% 4.9% 10.1% D 44 +500

101

Yandy Diaz R

5.5% 10.4% 4.1% 6.9% D 40 +575

103

Cedric Mullins L Edge

2.8% 3.1% 8.1% 3.6% D 40 +575

122

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.2% 1.9% 3.3% 4.0% D 36 +950

134

Nick Fortes R

2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 2.3% D 33 —

139

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 31 +950

153

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.2% usage) carries Young's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Henderson Cowser Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Young fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Junior Caminero +305 · 66

Pete Alonso +400 · 60

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:05p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.05× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane McClanahan · LHP 0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.46 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 60 C+ +400 WARM 14 0.223 94.2 10.8% 16.7%vs LHP 402 19.5% 25.0% 22.2% 35

2 Coby Mayo 53 C +425 COOL 35 0.216 92.3 9.8% 39.3%vs LHP 407 15.2% 11.1% 16.1% 26

3 Gunnar Henderson 49 D +625 HOT 52 0.180 89.8 8.0% 30.4%vs LHP 391 15.7% 16.7% 16.1% 33

4 Colton Cowser 48 D — HOT 57 0.136 87.1 9.7% 20.0%vs LHP 419 15.9% 37.5% 15.0% 18

5 Leody Taveras 38 D +750 · 113 0.137 87.7 6.2% 7.7%vs LHP 405 4.7% 11.1% 10.2% 28

vs Brandon Young · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 66 C+ +305 · 7 0.266 92.9 9.2% 41.8%vs RHP 413 26.7% 33.3% 34.2% 36

2 Jonathan Aranda 44 D +500 COOL 77 0.142 90.9 8.0% 16.7%vs RHP 386 11.3% 8.3% 9.0% 41

3 Yandy Diaz 40 D +575 COOL 101 0.160 90.9 6.6% 22.2%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 48

4 Cedric Mullins 40 D +575 COOL 103 0.152 87.6 4.7% 20.0%vs RHP 389 12.4% 0.0% 10.1% 28

5 Richie Palacios 36 D +950 · 122 0.117 86.2 5.0% 12.8%vs RHP 398 4.5% 9.1% 7.9% 23

6 Nick Fortes 33 D — COOL 134 0.104 85.5 3.8% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.5% 0.0% 8.2% 11

7 Taylor Walls 31 D +950 COOL 139 0.081 85.4 3.8% 2.6%vs RHP 383 1.0% 8.3% 7.7% 35

8 Chandler Simpson 20 D — COOL 153 0.056 83.9 — 2.9%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 48

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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