TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.10×

ATH @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 4 mph cross 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

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6:40p

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7:40p

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8:40p

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9:40p

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10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks +2

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 28 · vs Barnett ⟷ Lawrence Butler conv 28 · vs Wacha → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Mason Barnett RHP · ATH

leak 93

2.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.84 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone +370 C+ ●●●●○

2 Michael Massey +625 C ●●●○○

3 Carter Jensen +400 C ●●○○○

FADE Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 22

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · stingy — thin edge

1 Lawrence Butler +525 D ●●●●○

2 Jeff Mcneil +750 D ●●○○○

3 Henry Bolte +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: 14.8% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ vs Barnett Edge +370 0.220 · 93.2 · 11.7% 25.0% 30.7% F B O C+ 64

· KC Michael Massey vs Barnett Edge +625 0.164 · 89.7 · 7.6% 25.0% 17.5% F B O C 50

· KC Carter Jensen vs Barnett Edge +400 0.184 · 90.7 · 9.6% 9.1% 13.2% F B O C 54

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Barnett — 0.161 · 92.7 · 10.4% 0.0% 12.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Wacha Edge +525 0.136 · 89.4 · 7.3% 41.7% 13.9% F B O D 45

· ATH Jeff Mcneil HOT vs Wacha Edge +750 0.089 · 86.4 · 3.1% 25.0% 6.9% F B O D 31

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Wacha +700 0.106 · 90.9 · 7.0% 16.7% 8.4% F B O D 40

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Barnett +400 0.152 · 89.0 · 9.4% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 45

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Barnett +850 0.140 · 86.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 42

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Wacha Edge +750 0.187 · 87.7 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 43

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Wacha Edge +750 0.154 · 89.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Wacha +950 0.123 · 84.1 · 4.1% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 33

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Barnett Edge +850 0.125 · 88.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.2% ← leak OFF 24.2% BRK 18.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Lawrence Butler L Edge

8.5% 3.8% 8.2% 7.4% D 45 +525

Jonah Heim S Edge

7.3% 10.2% 4.1% 7.2% D 43 +750

104

Henry Bolte R

8.1% 4.3% 8.7% 7.8% D 40 +700

108

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.5% 7.8% 4.1% 6.8% D 39 +750

133

Jacob Wilson R

4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 33 +950

141

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

1.1% 1.6% 1.7% 1.4% D 31 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.2% usage) carries Wacha's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 47.6% ← leak FB 46.9% OFF 5.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Jac Caglianone L Edge

18.4% 13.7% 11.7% 14.8% C+ 64 +370

Carter Jensen L Edge

10.3% 9.6% 10.0% 9.9% C 54 +400

Bobby Witt R

10.4% 11.7% 13.3% 11.4% C 50 —

Michael Massey L Edge

7.1% 7.2% 1.8% 6.1% C 50 +625

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Salvador Perez R

6.5% 12.8% 7.1% 9.4% D 45 +400

Nick Loftin R

2.0% 5.6% 0.0% 4.1% D 42 +850

Isaac Collins S Edge

9.7% 5.8% 2.3% 5.7% D 42 +850

Read the columns: the breaking family (47.6% usage) carries Barnett's damage — BRK is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Butler Mcneil Caglianone Massey

Legend

attack side — vs Barnett fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jac Caglianone +370 · 64

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 4 mph cross 83°F open

↑

4 mph · cross

85°F

6:40p

↑

5 mph · cross

83°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · cross

80°F

8:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

78°F

9:40p · peak

↑

6 mph · slight_out

76°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 83°F, wind 4 mph E (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Lawrence Butler 45 D +525 WARM 73 0.136 89.4 7.3% 20.4%vs RHP 410 8.7% 41.7% 13.9% 37

2 Jonah Heim 43 D +750 WARM 86 0.187 87.7 7.1% 5.9%vs RHP 414 9.3% 0.0% 9.2% 29

3 Henry Bolte 40 D +700 · 104 0.106 90.9 7.0% 4.8%vs RHP 423 11.6% 16.7% 8.4% 35

4 Carlos Cortes 39 D +750 COOL 108 0.154 89.5 6.8% 14.6%vs RHP 403 4.7% 0.0% 8.7% 13

5 Jacob Wilson 33 D +950 WARM 133 0.123 84.1 4.1% 14.3%vs RHP 386 6.5% 0.0% 8.5% 27

6 Jeff Mcneil 31 D +750 HOT 141 0.089 86.4 3.1% 9.8%vs RHP 382 5.4% 25.0% 6.9% 25

vs Mason Barnett · RHP 2.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.84 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 64 C+ +370 WARM 9 0.220 93.2 11.7% 31.2%vs RHP 417 15.5% 25.0% 30.7% 39

2 Carter Jensen 54 C +400 · 32 0.184 90.7 9.6% 18.2%vs RHP 394 14.3% 9.1% 13.2% 23

3 Bobby Witt 50 C — COOL 48 0.161 92.7 10.4% 15.2%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 36

4 Michael Massey 50 C +625 WARM 49 0.164 89.7 7.6% 9.1%vs RHP 401 8.2% 25.0% 17.5% 33

5 Salvador Perez 45 D +400 COOL 67 0.152 89.0 9.4% 18.3%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 33

6 Nick Loftin 42 D +850 COOL 89 0.140 86.9 6.2% 10.3%vs RHP 397 8.3% 0.0% 9.9% 28

7 Isaac Collins 42 D +850 COOL 90 0.125 88.4 7.3% 8.3%vs RHP 394 5.7% 0.0% 8.2% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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