2
HRs allowed
2.8%
HR rate (pool)
5.6%
Overall HR/FB
2.56
FIP
3.54
xFIP
-0.98
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
5
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 5th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
72.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.0 EV · 404 ft
max EV allowed 109.3
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR ↑
15D · 1 HR ↑
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Carmen Mlodzinski.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
28.0%
86.3
28.4°
4
+1.1
Splitter Offspeed
25.3%
79.5
9.2°
0
-1.2
Sinker Hard
17.6%
87.3
11.0°
1
+0.6
Curveball Breaking
12.0%
85.0
4.6°
0
-0.8
Sweeper Breaking
10.7%
82.4
8.5°
1
-1.3
Slider Breaking
5.0%
87.3
25.7°
0
+0.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups72
HRs allowed (pool)2
Pool HR rate2.8%
Pool HR/game day0.25
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB5.6% 5
HR/9—
FIP2.56 7
xFIP3.54
FIP − xFIP-0.98 6
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed72.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 28.0% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.3 mph
Avg launch angle28.4°
HRs allowed4
Pitches381
Splitter
Offspeed · 25.3% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.5 mph
Avg launch angle9.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches344
Sinker
Hard · 17.6% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.3 mph
Avg launch angle11.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches239
Curveball
Breaking · 12.0% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.0 mph
Avg launch angle4.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches164
Sweeper
Breaking · 10.7% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle8.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches146
Slider
Breaking · 5.0% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.3 mph
Avg launch angle25.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches68
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Carmen Mlodzinski.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
2 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.0 EV · 404 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 8 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-25
9
1
105.6
2026-05-20
9
0
107.2
2026-05-08
9
1
109.3
2026-05-02
9
0
105.0
2026-04-26
9
0
107.7
2026-04-10
9
0
107.6
2026-04-04
9
0
106.0
2026-03-29
9
0
107.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Carmen Mlodzinski isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.